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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

KLCI Stock - CSCSTEL / 5094 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 380000000*1.82 = 691,600,000 (Moderate)
NTA per share : 782171/373200 = 2.1
P/BV : 1.82/2.1 = 0.8667
Forecast P/E now : (1.82-0.14)/0.162 = 10.37 (High)
ROE : 12.52% (Moderate)
DY : 0.14/1.82*100 = 7.69% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 years) : (1.2188+0.9499+1.6022+1.5045)/4 = 1.3189 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 548106/38013 = 14.4189 (Very Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (80435+107847)/2/(1049756/365) = 32 days (Good)
My Target Price : Not interested unless steel utilization increasing
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit dropped a lot, receivables decreased, strong cash, good cash flow, low debt, steel price slightly increasing, material cost increasing, steel production decreasing, steel utilization slightly increased
Technical Support Price : 1.7, 1.6
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group achieved a significant decrease of revenue and profit before tax for the current quarter of 26% lower and 96% respectively than that of its corresponding quarter

- The drop in revenue is due to contraction in sales volume as a result of sluggish demand. The reduction of profit before tax was mainly the results of lower sales volume and high cost of raw materials which necessitated a write-down of inventories of about RM10 million to net realizable value

- The Group’s revenue has decreased significantly by 36% compared to preceding quarter. The decrease in revenue is due to sales volume contraction and lower selling prices of our steel products

- The decrease in revenue together with inventories write-down have resulted Group’s profit before tax to reduce significantly by 94% the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.18*0.9 = 0.162, estimate PE on current price 1.82 = 10.37(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2936*0.9 = 0.2642 (10% decrease due to global steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.55/5.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2936 (maintained forecast eps due to lower margin), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.99/4.67 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2936 (20% growth from 0.2442, world steel price increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.13/4.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.24, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/4.92 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1012, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/9.88 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.3/15.44

CSCSTEL latest news (English)

World Steel News


Sunday, November 28, 2010

KLCI Stock - MBMR / 5983 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 242667667*3.07 = 744,989,737.69 (Medium)
NTA per share : (989292-11435)/245185 = 3.99
P/BV : 3.07/3.99 = 0.7694
Forecast P/E now : (3.07-0.08)/0.5036 = 5.94
ROE : 12.15% (Moderate)
DY : 0.08/3.07*100 = 2.61% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 years) : (1.1567+0.9881+1.1029+1.0328)/4 = 1.0701 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 470146/129346 = 3.6348 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (104129+102091)/2/(1481187/365) = 25 days (Good)
My Target Price : 4.03+0.08 = 4.11 (EPS 0.5036, PE 8, DPS 0.08)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit lower down, good cash flow, strong cash, low debt, navps increasing, Yen strengthening, VW expansion, got new license from Lion Group
Technical Support Price : 3
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 5 (12 Nov 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Malaysian motor total industry volume (TIV) of sales by registration improved in the third quarter of 2010 marginally by 3.6% compared against the same period of 2009, however declined slightly by 1% over the preceding quarter

- Group revenue improved by 30.4%. Profit from operations improved by 65%, whilst share of results of associate companies improved by 35.6% to RM26.6 million. Net profit attributable to owners of the Company improved by 52%

- Group revenue declined by 4%. Similarly, profit from operations and share of results of associate companies were lower by 6.4% and 22.7% respectively. Net profit attributable to owners of the Company also declined by 11.4%

- The decline in truck sales under DMSB was due to the discontinuation of one of Daihatsu's truck models. This was partially offset by the commencement of the new Hino dealership that was secured earlier this year, alongside the sales of the GranMax pick‐up trucks

- Sales of passenger vehicles for all the brands under the Group improved over the same period last year due to the additional dealerships and new models

- Steel wheel deliveries moderated against the larger base last year and also affected by a shorter production period in the month of September 2010

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1399*4*0.9 = 0.5036, estimate PE on current price 3.07 = 5.94(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.5049*0.9 = 0.4544, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.22/6.45 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4772 (base on year 2008 eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.53 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0931*4 = 0.3724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.4/6.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0916*4 = 0.3664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.21/6.39 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0568*4 = 0.2272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.98 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0381*4 = 0.1524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.37/12.6 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0672*4 = 0.2688, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.59/6.58 (DPS 0.18)

MBMR latest news (English)

MBMR latest news (Chinese)

JPY/MYR Chart


Saturday, November 27, 2010

KLCI Stock - KAF / 5096 - 2011 Quarter 1

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 120000000*1.47 = 176,400,000 (Small)
NTA per share : (226438-7500)/120000 = 1.82
P/BV : 1.47/1.82 = 0.8077
Forecast P/E now : (1.47-0.075)/0.1556 = 7.62 (High)
ROE : 9.76% (Low)
DY : 0.075/1.47*100 = 5.1% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover : Not applicable
Liquidity Ratio : 338774/134215 = 2.5241 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : Not applicable
My Target Price : 1.52+0.08 = 1.6 (PE 8, EPS 0.1896, DPS 0.075)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 1.4
My Comment : Revenue increasing, eps got an average of 0.0474 from last 4Q(current quarter is higher than this), other income got an average of 4681 from last 4Q(current quarter is higher than this also), assets recovered, cash reduced 43.8%, above moderate debt and increased, navps increased, explore retail electronic broker network
Technical Support Price : 1.24
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-

- The Group’s profit before tax for the quarter ended 31 August 2010 is higher by 22.5% compared to the corresponding quarter due mainly to higher other income and lower other expenses offset by lower interest income and gross profit

- The Group’s profit before tax for the current interim period reported on, is 82.9% higher than the preceding interim period’s profit before tax, due mainly to higher other income offset by lower interest income for the current interim period

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1806*1.05 = 0.1896, estimate PE on current price 1.47 = 7.36(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1729*0.9 = 0.1556(10% drop due to assets decreased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.03/7.49 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0443(average from recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.1772, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.93/6.35 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2262, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.26/5.11 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.8/4.97 (DPS 0.075)

KAF latest news (English)


Friday, November 26, 2010

KLCI Stock - DRBHCOM / 1619 - 2011 Quarter 2

DRB-HICOM BERHAD

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,513,208,166.30 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.87-0.04)/0.2189 = 8.36 (Moderate)
Target Price2.19+0.04 = 2.23 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.2189, DPS 0.04)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue increased and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps second consecutive quarter decreasing but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, negative free cash flow and negative net cash flow reduced a bit
First Support Price1.2
Second Support Price1.1
Risk RatingLOW

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity11.18%
Dividend Yield2.14%
Profit Margin11.30%
Tax Rate16.77%
Asset Turnover0.2492
Net Asset Value Per Share2.5
Net Tangible Asset per share2.38
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.55
Cash Per Share3.87
Liquidity Current Ratio0.7526
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6402
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5414
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio4.0529
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7665
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-53.7%
Days to sell the inventory94
Days to collect the receivables78
Days to pay the payables788

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s revenue rose marginally by 1.6% to RM3.20 billion for the six months ended 30 September 2010 compared to RM3.15 billion in the previous corresponding period ended 30 September 2009

- For the six months ended 30 September 2010, the Group achieved a higher pre-tax profit of RM409.65 million compared to RM163.65 million in the previous corresponding period ended 30 September 2009. The increase in profits were due to:

i)Improved performance of subsidiary companies
ii)Higher share of results of jointly controlled entities and associated companies
iii)Recognition of negative goodwill arising from accretion of equity interest in Edaran Otomobil National Berhad (EON) from 79.05% to 100.0%

- The Group recorded a lower pre-tax profit of RM186.17 million in the current quarter ended 30 September 2010 as compared to RM223.48 million in the preceding quarter ended 30 June 2010 which included the one-off gain being negative goodwill arising from accretion of interest in EON. Excluding the one-off gain, the pre-tax profits would have been as follows

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0684*4*0.8 = 0.2189, estimate PE on current price 1.3 = 5.76(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1873*0.95 = 0.1779, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.59/5.79 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0493*4*0.95 = 0.1873, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.09/5.02 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0428*4 = 0.1712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.42/5.37 (DPS 0.04)

DRBHCOM latest news (English)

DRBHCOM latest news (Chinese)


KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 1150965132*6.8 = 7,826,562,897.60 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (4126805-288883)/1139185 = 3.37
P/BV : 6.8/3.37 = 2.0178
Forecast P/E now : (6.8-0.335)/0.472 = 13.7 (Moderate)
ROE : 11.39% (Moderate)
DY : 0.335/6.8*100 = 4.93% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 years) : (1.2846+1.2314+1.6596+1.6264)/4 = 1.4505 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 4287885/2402929 = 1.7844 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (1030937+952975)/2/(12371939/365) = 29 days (Good)
My Target Price : 7.08+0.335 = 7.42 (PE 15, EPS 0.472, DPS 0.335)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit lower than preceding quarter, receivables still high, good cash flow, above moderate debt and increasing, automotive, equipment and manufacturing & engineering division growth largely, oil & gas division lower loss but minor impact and expect to recover
Technical Support Price : 6.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 8.38 (23 Nov 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- Group revenue for the third quarter ended 30th September 2010 surpassed the preceding year’s corresponding quarter by 10.4%. Strong consumer and business confidence continued to generate demand for our Toyota vehicles, heavy and industrial equipment as well as automotive parts

- Group profit before taxation for the third quarter ended 30th September 2010 exceeded the same quarter of 2009 by 18.3%. Higher sales of our products and services by most of our business segments and favourable foreign exchange rates accounted for the profit improvement for the quarter ended 30th September 2010

- As a result, net profit attributable to the owners of the Company for the third quarter of 2010 increased 18.7% from the same quarter of 2009

- Group revenue for the nine months ended 30th September 2010 improved over the same period of 2009 by 21.7%. Strong economic recovery, particularly in the first six months of 2010, resulted in higher demand for our Toyota vehicles, industrial and heavy equipment as well as automotive parts. However, sales of our oil & gas pipes and services were adversely affected by the slow recovery in the Oil and Gas industry

- Group profit before taxation for the nine months ended 30th September 2010 outperformed the same period of 2009 by 82.2%. Higher revenue from most of our core business segments, improved margins from favourable foreign exchange rates and model mix contributed to the profit surge. However, the antidumping and countervailing duties imposed by the United States on OCTG pipes imported from China continued to adversely affect the performance of our overseas associate, WSP Holdings Limited. Negative contribution from Naga 2 also contributed to the loss registered by the Oil & Gas segment

- Net profit attributable to the owners of the Company for the nine months ended 30th September 2010 was significantly higher than the same period of 2009, an increase of 82.1%

- Total Toyota and Perodua vehicle sales of 212,732 units represented 46.9% of the total industry volume of 453,249 units reported by the Malaysian Automotive Association for the nine months ended 30th September 2010

- Group revenue for the third quarter ended 30th September 2010 was lower than the second quarter of 2010 by 5.9%. Sale of Toyota vehicles and automotive parts declined due to shorter trading periods in the third quarter of 2010 as a result of the long Hari Raya Aidilfitri festival break

- Consequently, Group profit before taxation for the third quarter ended 30th September 2010 was 22.9% lower than the second quarter of 2010. A dip in the sales of both Toyota and Perodua vehicles mainly accounted for the reduction in profit

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate PE on current price 6.81 = 13.72 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

UMW latest news (English)


Thursday, November 25, 2010

KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 93716875*2.52 = 236,166,525 (Small)
NTA per share : (169826-1301)/93717 = 1.8
P/BV : 2.52/1.8 = 1.4
Forecast P/E now : (2.52-0.08)/0.3238 = 7.54 (Moderate)
ROE : 15.99% (Moderate)
DY : 0.08/2.52*100 = 3.17% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 years) : (1.1899+1.1948+1.116+1.1771)/4 = 1.1695 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 144590/64934 = 2.2267 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (79535+72566)/2/(306382/365) = 90 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 3.24+0.08 = 3.32 (PE 10, EPS 0.3238, DPS 0.076)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, receivables increasing, good cash flow, below moderate debt but increasing, navps increased, all operating segments show better result than preceding year, new retail at JB open in FY10Q4
Technical Support Price : 2.4
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- For the third quarter of 2010, the Group achieved an increases of 44% pre-tax profits and 12.7% revenue respectively of that achieved in the similar period last year. Year to date, the Group recorded year-on-year growth of 44.5% pre-tax profits and 11.1% revenue respectively

- Year to date, its manufacturing division, XepaSP revenue grew 12% over the previous year, with sales to all market sectors exceeding budget expectations. Its market-leading range of cough and cold syrups was further strengthened with the launch of Sedilix Rx and Cough-en Rx formulations

- Whole sale and Distribution continued to show steady revenue growth on improved margins, helped by strong contributions from its Consumer and Pharma divisions. Revenue from the Group’s house brands of AVEX and AGNESIA, recorded growth of 25% and 14% respectively over the same period last year, due to intensified marketing efforts and export sales

- Contribution from associated company Xiamen Maidiken Science & Technology Co Ltd is RM2.7 million for the 9 months of year 2010, a growth of 59.4% over year 2009, supported by strong contributions from its distribution and retail operations in Fujian Province

- Profit before tax for the current quarter is RM9.1 million compared to RM7.82 million in the previous quarter. The 16.1% increase in profit before tax is attributed largely to increased revenue across all business units within the Group and a growing proportion of higher margin house brands in the sales mix

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0771*4*1.05 = 0.3238, estimate PE on current price 2.52 = 7.54(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1334*2*1.1 = 0.2935 (0.1334 is recent 2Q cum_eps, 10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.7/7.85 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.32 (add 5% adjustment from 0.3048 due to profit boosted), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.48/8.41 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/6.18 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

AHEALTH latest news (English)


Wednesday, November 24, 2010

KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 285530000*44.96 = 12,837,428,800 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (486870-411618)/285530 = 0.26 (Decreased)
P/BV : 44.96/0.26 = 172.9231
Forecast P/E now : (44.96-2.41)/2.2713 = 18.73 (High)
ROE : 151.99% (Decreased)
DY : 2.41/44.96*100 = 5.36% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (2.5833+2.4364+2.65+1.9738)/4 = 2.4109 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 733674/365403 = 2.0078 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (174899+168754)/2/(4027235/365) = 15 days (Good)
My Target Price : 38.61+2.41 = 41.02 (PE 17, EPS 2.2713, DPS 2.41)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 43
My Comment : Revenue and profit QbQ decreasing, good cash flow, high debt and increasing, navps decreased
Technical Support Price : 43
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 38.75 (21 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group’s volumes had increased marginally by 1.3% for the year to date 30 September in comparison to the same period last year driven by trade speculation and improved economic conditions

- The Group’s market shares have also performed strongly by recording a year to date September market share of 60.2%, up 0.7 percentage points in comparison to the same period last year. This growth in market share was derived from BAT’s new offering Peter Stuyversant International which had gained 2.6% market share since its launch in June 2010. Additionally, the Global Drive Brands, Dunhill, Kent and Pall Mall have remained resilient maintaining their market share in comparison to the same period last year. The Group continues to lead the premium segment of the industry and with the addition of Peter Stuyversant International has an additional offering in the value for money segment

- For the nine months to 30 September, the Group’s revenue was 3.6% higher compared to 2009, from higher excise, pricing and increased volumes, partially offset by unfavourable pack size mix due the ban on packs less than 20 sticks. However, Net Turnover (Revenue less Government levies) had decreased by 0.3% during the same period. Consequently, Profit from operations declined by 5.8% in comparison to the previous year from the decrease in Net Turnover, higher cost of Dunhill Reloc packs, market returns from withdrawal of packs less than 20 sticks and, increased marketing expenditure from the launch of Peter Stuyversant International

- The strong performance of Dunhill in retaining its market share and the strategic introduction of Peter Stuyvesant to capture potential down-traders, in June, has seen BAT grow share despite the withdrawal of packs less than 20 sticks limiting the financial impact of the withdrawal to the lower margin on 20s packs

- Profit after tax only declined by 4.4% from 2009 mainly from operating profit movements, marginally higher finance costs, due to the timing of bond refinancing in 2009, and lower effective tax rate from revised tax payable for 2009

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate PE on current price 44.96 = 18.73(DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

BAT latest news (English)

BAT latest news (Chinese)


Tuesday, November 23, 2010

KLCI Stock - NESTLE / 4707 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 234500000*43.8 = 10,271,100,000 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (688702-61024)/234500 = 2.68
P/BV : 43.8/2.68 = 16.34
Forecast P/E now : (43.8-1.5)/1.9308 = 21.91 (High)
ROE : 66.33%
DY : 1.5/43.8*100 = 3.42% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (2.2803+2.3247+2.2007+2.1241)/4 = 2.2325 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 824029/623979 = 1.3206 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (384078+334948)/2/(4013058/365) = 32 days (Good)
My Target Price : 44.41+1.5 = 45.91 (PE 23, EPS 1.9308, DPS 1.5)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 40
My Comment : Revenue lower down but still higher than preceding year, profit increased, good cash flow, strong cash, high debt but decreased, navps increasing, strong Ringgit, cocoa powder and skimmed milk powder price increasing
Technical Support Price : 43.4, 41.7
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 47.9 (29 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- For the third quarter of 2010, the Group registered a 11.8% higher turnover than the same period last year. The commendable performance was contributed by both Domestic and Exports businesses

- The good growth momentum generated by the local economy sustained the consumer demand and spending. Leveraging on the improved domestic economic situation, most of the product categories performed well and registered a satisfactory growth. This is quite evident for Nestle Liquid Drinks and Chilled Dairy which achieved double digit growth. From a channel perspective, both retail and out-of home sales enjoyed good growth

- Capitalising on the investments made in major production lines for coffee and coffee creamers in the past 2 years, the exports business continued to perform well, registering a strong double digit growth for the quarter. The strong economic growth experienced within the South East Asian countries helped generate higher demand for the Group's Halal products

- As a consequence of input cost pressures and product sales mix, the gross profit margin deteriorated by 110bps against the previous corresponding period. Nevertheless, due to less marketing and promotional activities during the quarter and timing of some fixed overhead expenses, the profit margin before tax improved by 140 bps

- For the first nine months ended 30 September 2010, the Group posted a 9.6% higher turnover than the same period last year. The continued positive economic environment helped sustain the accelerating market demand. Leveraging on the improved economic situation, most of the domestic product categories performed well. This is quite evident for Nestle Liquid Drinks and Chilled Dairy which had a double digit growth achievement. From a channel perspective, both retail and out-of home sales enjoyed good growth

- With the additional capacity for coffee and coffee creamers made in the past two years, the Export business was able to capture the higher demand overseas. This was aided by the strong economic growth experienced within the South East Asian countries. From the start of this year, exports achieved a robust double digit growth. Against the same period last year, the export business has expanded from 20.9% to 23.9% of the total Group's sales

- The Group remained focused on managing unfavourable trends in input cost. For the period under review, the average price of cocoa powder doubled and skimmed milk powder was higher by 20%. These higher material costs were partially offset by savings from manufacturing efficiencies
driven by internal improvement programmes, higher export volumes that helped absorb factory fixed costs and also aided by the stronger Ringgit. Resulting from these factors, the gross profit margin was 30bps lower that the previous period

- Whilst the turnover grew by 9.6%, the operating expenses remained flat. This was partially due to the timing of marketing and promotional activities scheduled in quarter 3 and quarter 4. The Nestle Continuous Excellence programme that is being rolled out across the organisation has also made a good impact on cost management. As a result, the profit margin before tax improved by 150bps

- The Halal tax incentives related to the substantial capital investments in the last three years helped reduce the tax rate. Against the same period last year, the net profit margin improved by 200bps

- Against the last quarter, the turnover at RM991million contracted by 5.7%. The higher operating profit margin was mainly due to strong marketing and promotional activities which took place in quarter 2

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4827*4 = 1.9308, estimate PE on current price 43.8 = 21.91(DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4271*4*1.1 = 1.8792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.15/20.22 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.56+0.1491+0.0357 = 1.7448(0.1491 from adjustment between 2009 Q1 eps and 2010 Q1 eps, 0.0357 from QbQ improvement adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.21/18.52 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.56(around 4% from 1.5002), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.12/20.54 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.06/21.12 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.65/21.78 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.42/17.82 (DPS 1.3)

NESTLE latest news (English)

NESTLE Latest news (Chinese)


Monday, November 22, 2010

KLCI Stock - SUPERMX / 7106 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 339463040*4.54 = 1,541,162,201.60 (Large)
NTA per share : (690253-28716)/339463 = 1.95
P/BV : 4.54/1.95 = 2.3282
Forecast P/E now : (4.54-0.135)/0.4946 = 8.91 (Low)
ROE : 27.52% (High)
DY : 0.135/4.54*100 = 2.97% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.8653+0.9014+0.8414+0.6018)/4 = 0.8025 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 448202/157983 = 2.837 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (232816+157093)/2/(886998/365) = 80 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 5.94 (PE 12, EPS 0.4946, DPS 0.135)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue increasing but slow down, debt decreasing, strong cash, navps increased, USD remained weak, latex price increasing, Group expanding, switching part of production lines to produce more Nitrile Powder Free gloves
Technical Support Price : 4.2, 3.8
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 7.84 (08 Nov 2010)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group sold more gloves during the current quarter compared to the corresponding quarter a year ago but revenue was slightly lower by 1%. This is because the USD has continuously & steadily weakened against the Ringgit by 10.2% during this period from an average of USD1:RM3.52 to USD1:RM3.16

- The weakening US Dollar together with escalating latex prices where latex is the largest cost component in rubber glove manufacturing at close to 60% of total costs and it rose by 58% during this period; contributed to a contraction in profit margins. The escalation & increase in latex prices and the weakening of the US Dollar were faster than the costs pass through onto the product selling prices during this period. As such, Profit before tax and Profit after tax fell by 11.3% and 5.0% respectively

- Group revenue rose marginally compared to the preceding quarter by 0.11%. Although there was capacity growth, the continued weakening of the USD suppressed revenue growth this quarter. The US Dollar fell a further 2% from USD1:RM3.24 to USD1:RM3.16 during this period

- The weakening of US Dollar and continuous increase in latex prices at a fast pace led to margins being squeezed as costs increase transfer onto the product pricing is slower than the material costs increases & the weakening of the US Dollar. Profit before tax and Profit after tax fell by 15.1% and 16.8% respectively

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1124*4*1.1 = 0.4946, estimate PE on current price 4.54 = 8.91(DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1351*4*0.9 = 0.4864(correction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.82/7.43 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6576+0.0253 = 0.6829, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.38/8.77 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1644*4 = 0.6576, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.16/8.24 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1514*4 = 0.6056, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/5.3 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0972*4 = 0.3888, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.74/5.14 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0743*4 = 0.2972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.01 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2499, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.67/3.07 (DPS 0.0325)

SUPERMX Latest news (English)

Malaysia Daily Latexx Price

USD/MYR Chart


Sunday, November 21, 2010

KLCI Stock - TSH / 9059 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 414530263*2.6 = 1,077,778,683.80 (Large)
NTA per share : (728207-49442)/411055 = 1.65
P/BV : 2.6/1.65 = 1.5758
Forecast P/E now : (2.6-0.05)/0.1954 = 13.05 (Moderate)
ROE : 7.73% (Low)
DY : 0.05/2.6*100 = 1.92% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 years) : (0.5319+0.5427+0.8155+0.7126)/4 = 0.6507 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 414847/525904 = 0.7888 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (144448+159781)/2/(954513/365) = 58 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.34+0.05 = 2.39 (PE 12, EPS 0.1954, EPS 0.05)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 2.3
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, receivables increased, strong cash, high debt and increasing, navps decreased, monthly production remain low, palm oil land increased, USD and EUR against MYR lower than preceding quarter, CPO price increasing
Technical Support Price : 2.2, 2
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- For the current quarter, the Group recorded an increase of 5.2% in revenue as compared to the previous corresponding quarter

- The Group posted a 0.7% higher profit before taxation as compared to the previous corresponding quarter

- The Palm and Bio-Integration business segment’s performance improved as a result of higher CPO prices and better FFB yield per Ha. The Cocoa Manufacturing segment also reported a better result due to improved margin. The Wood Products segment continues to be affected by its competitive environment and given the bulk of the revenue are export orientated, it was affected by the strong Ringgit Malaysia against the foreign currencies

- The Group’s revenue for the quarter under review was 3.3% higher than the immediate preceding quarter

- As mentioned above, the results under Palm and Bio-Integration segment is favourable owing to higher CPO prices and better FFB yield. The Wood Products segment also recorded higher revenue against previous quarter due to strengthening of Euro denominated sale. This segment registered a marginal profit due to contribution from forestry operation. The results of Cocoa Manufacturing segment also improved albeit with lower revenue

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0444*4*1.1 = 0.1954, estimate PE on current price 2.6 = 13.05(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.033*4 = 0.132, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.21/13.94 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1938*0.95 = 0.1841, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.59/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1802*1.1 = 0.1982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.78 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0568*4*0.95 = 0.2158, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/7.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.055*4*0.8 = 0.176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.97/8.35 (DPS 0.05)

TSH latest news (English)


Saturday, November 20, 2010

KLCI Stock - HOMERIZ / 5160 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 200000000*0.5 = 100,000,000 (Small)
NTA per share : 57244/200000 = 0.29
P/BV : 0.5/0.29 = 1.7241
Forecast P/E now : (0.5-0.04)/0.0828 = 5.56 (Moderate)
ROE : 35.03%
DY : 0.04/0.5*100 = 8% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : 1.5096 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 44545/10161 = 4.3839 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : 7438*365/109969 = 24 days (Good)
My Target Price : 0.5+0.04 = 0.54 (PE 6, EPS 0.0828, DPS 0.04)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 0.48
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, good cash flow, below moderate debt and decreasing, navps increased, inventory and receivables increased, strengthening of MYR, new manufacturing factory in Vietnam will begin operations by the second half of this year, most Europe index increasing
Technical Support Price : 0.44
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-

- The Group revenue for the current quarter under review decreased by 7.0% from preceding quarter. Consequently, the Group profit before tax decreased by 9.8% as compared to the preceding quarter

- The decrease in revenue was mainly due to the lower customer order received as a result of the economic uncertainties in Europe arising from the recent economic crisis and the strengthening of Malaysian Ringgit

- In FY2009, revenue recorded RM108.4 million and profit RM22.7 million
- In FY2008, revenue recorded RM92.6 million and profit RM12.4 million
- In FY2007, revenue recorded RM73.8 million and profit RM10.5 million

- Revenue regions percentage: Europe-60%, Australasia-26%, North & South America-8%, Others-6%

- Revenue products percentage: Upholstered Sofas-55%, Upholstered Dining Chairs-30%, Upholstered Bed Frames-13%, Others-2%

- Dividend policy envisage not less than 40% of net profit, intends to recommend and distribute at least 50% of net profits

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0207*4 = 0.0828, estimate PE on current price 0.5 = 5.56(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0242*4*0.95 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.47/4.35 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0268*4*0.95 = 0.1018, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.04/4.91 (DPS 0.04)

HOMERIZ latest news (English)


Friday, November 19, 2010

KLCI Stock - DAYANG / 5141 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 352000000*2.71 = 953,920,000 (Medium)
NTA per share : 355037/352000 = 1.01
P/BV : 2.71/1.01 = 2.6832
Forecast P/E now : (2.71-0.05)/0.2314 = 11.5 (Moderate)
ROE : 15.7% (Moderate)
DY : 0.05/2.71*100 = 1.85 (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(2 year) : (0.4114+0.5966)/2 = 0.504 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 174997/56489 = 3.0979 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (108538+73855)/2/(211295/365) = 157 days
My Target Price : 3.01+0.05 = 3.06 (PE 13, EPS 0.2314, DPS 0.05)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, receivables increasing, good cash flow, below moderate debt, navps slightly increasing, order book increasing, oil price increasing, gas price decreasing, more Petronas jobs to release
Technical Support Price : 2.35
Risk Rating : MODERATE
Hwang DBS Target Price : 3.4 (09 Nov 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- Comparatively, the Group’s revenue for the current quarter ended 30 September 2010 increased by 47% while profit before tax (excluding share of results of an associate) and total comprehensive income for the current quarter increased by 112% and 105% respectively, when compared to the quarter ended 30 September 2009. The higher revenue in the current quarter as compared to the corresponding quarter is mainly due to higher value of work orders received and performed in the current quarter

- Whilst revenue increased by 47%, profit before tax (excluding share of results of an associate) for the current quarter increased by 112% in view of the fact that the work orders in the current quarter have a higher profit margin contribution

- The Group’s associate, Syarikat Borcos Shipping Sdn Bhd, contributed a profit of approximately RM1.8 million, further increasing the group’s total profit before tax for the current quarter by 16%

- In the opinion of the Directors, the results for the current quarter and financial year-to-date have not been affected by any transactions or events of a material nature which have arisen between 30 September 2010 and the date of this report

- In the current quarter, the Group’s revenue was 28% higher, the profit before tax (excluding share of results of an associate) was 33% higher and the total comprehensive income was 57% higher compared to the preceding quarter

- The higher revenue for the current quarter as compared to the preceding quarter is mainly due to higher work orders received and performed in the current quarter

- Whilst revenue increased by 28%, profit before tax increased by 33% in view of the fact that the work orders in the current quarter have a higher profit margin contribution as compared to those of the preceding quarter

- The Group’s associate, Syarikat Borcos Shipping Sdn Bhd contributed a profit of approximately an increase of 767% from the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0526*4*1.1 = 0.2314, estimate PE on current price 2.71 = 11.5(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1239*1.1 = 0.1363 (0.1239 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.94/14.16 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.129/4(average eps from recent 4Q)*0.9 = 0.1161 (10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.67/12.79 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1237*0.9 = 0.1113(10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.14/14.82 (DPS 0.05, correction to last Q estimated)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.21/9.71 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.98/6.91 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1338, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/3.73 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.15, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.87/ (DPS 0.14)

DAYANG latest news (English)


Thursday, November 18, 2010

KLCI Stock - DIGI / 6947 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 777500000*25.4 = 19,748,500,000 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (1403346-870548)/777500 = 0.69
P/BV : 25.4/0.69 = 36.8116
Forecast P/E now : (25.4-1.74)/1.5456 = 15.31 (Moderate)
ROE : 76.48% (High)
DY : 1.74/25.4*100 = 6.85% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (1.0439+1.0069+1.0515+1.0295)/4 = 1.033 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 1315328/2200623 = 0.5977 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (399718+399204)/2/(5224407/365) = 27 days (Good)
My Target Price : 24.73+1.74 = 26.47 (PE 16, EPS 1.5456, DPS 1.74)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price around 23)
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, good cash flow, high debt but decreased little, navps increased
Technical Support Price : 24.4, 23.9
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 24.4 (27 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group maintained its revenue growth momentum in the current financial period. Total revenue grew by 9% over same period last year notwithstanding the recent reduction in the mobile termination rate (“MTR”). The encouraging revenue growth was largely spurred by increased usage, particularly from data services, in tandem with the encouraging response to our smartphone bundles and mobile broadband offerings currently in the market. The enlarged subscription base of 8.2 million (2009: 7.4 million) also contributed to the increased revenue. The decline in average revenue per user (“ARPU”) to RM53 (2009: RM55) was mainly from competitive price pressures coupled with an adverse impact from the above-mentioned MTR reduction

- Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (“EBITDA”) improved by 10% year-on-year; attributed to the Group‟s on-going operational efficiency (“OE”) initiatives as well as solid revenue growth as previously mentioned. As a result, there was a corresponding increase in EBITDA margin to 44.0% (2009: 43.5%)

- The Group‟s profit before tax (“PBT”) and profit after tax (“PAT”) for the current financial period stood at RM1.1 billion and RM846.0 million respectively (2009: RM1.0 billion and RM754.0 million respectively). The resultant earnings per share (“EPS”) of 108.8 sen were significantly higher than the 97.0 sen reported in same period last year

- The main catalyst for the improved RM1.4 billion total revenue reported during the current quarter (2009: RM1.2 billion) was largely driven by our expansive smartphone portfolio and smart bundles as well as the expanded coverage of our 3G/HSPA network which now spans 11 key market centres in the country. The lower ARPU at RM53 (2009: RM55) was a mirror of the challenges affecting the current financial period, as explained above

- The Group‟s EBITDA and EBITDA margin 43.9% respectively were higher than the 42.7% reported respectively in the same quarter last year. The marked improvement in the EBITDA was a result of cost savings achieved from already executed OE initiatives and higher revenue base in the current quarter; which also contributed to the improvement in EBITDA margin

- Current quarter PBT exceeded the preceding quarter‟s, largely as a result of higher revenues combined with lower handset subsidies partially off-set by increased staff costs from one-off handset subsidies to employees, higher credit loss allowances and negative net impact from the previously-mentioned MTR reduction

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 1.4051*1.1 = 1.5456, estimate PE on current price 25.4 = 15.31(DPS 1.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.3254*1.1 = 1.4579(10% grow from 1.3254), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.85/13.04 (DPS 1.99)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.3254(3% grow from 1.2868), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/15.01 (DPS 2.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.317*4 = 1.268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.21/15.82 (DPS 1.78)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3139*4 = 1.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/15.47 (DPS 1.77)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.3016*4 = 1.2064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.12/16.21 (DPS 1.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.3543*4 = 1.4172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.51/14.1 (DPS 1.62)

DIGI latest news (English)


Wednesday, November 17, 2010

KLCI Stock - IRCB / 2127 - 2011 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 236810480*0.45 = 106,564,716 (Small)
NTA per share : (70945-33728)/236810 = 0.16
P/BV : 0.45/0.16 = 2.8125
Forecast P/E now : 0.45/0.0044 = 102.27 (Very high)
ROE : 2.22% (Low)
DY : Not applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.0005+0.8054+0.7374)/3 = 0.8478 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 64260/73730 = 0.8716 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (21987+25780)/2/(161090/365) = 54 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, bad cash flow, high debt but decreasing, high latex price, US dollar depreciation
Technical Support Price : 0.44
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The Group's pbt for the quarter ended 31 July 2010 was 68.1% lower as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter's. The lower current year's quarter profit was mainly due to expenses on right issue listing and provision for doubtful debt

- The Group recorded a 53.1% lower pbt and 18.7% lower revenue for the current quarter as compared to the immediate preceding quarter ended 30 April 2010

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0021*2*1.05 = 0.0044(exclude gain from sale of land), estimate PE on current price 0.45 = 102.27
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0079(remain recent last 4Q cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 102.53/48.73
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0022*4 = 0.0088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 128.41/67.61

IRCB latest news (English)


Tuesday, November 16, 2010

KLCI Stock - PBBANK / 1295 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 2472348084*12.78 = 31,596,608,513.52 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (12190869-1935506)/3502148 = 2.93
P/BV : 12.78/2.93 = 4.3618
Forecast P/E now : (12.78-0.5)/0.894 = 13.74 (Moderate)
ROE : 22.93% (High)
DY : 0.5/12.78*100 = 3.91% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : Not applicable
Liquidity Ratio : Not applicable
Receivables Collection Period : Not applicable
My Target Price : 13.41+0.5 = 13.91 (PE 15, EPS 0.894, DPS 0.5)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, recover slightly from negative cash flow due to net changes in operating assets, navps increasing, major consumer price index still uptrend, total export and import in Malaysia decreasing
Technical Support Price : 12.5
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 14.2 (08 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group's pre-tax profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2010 was 22.1% higher than the previous corresponding period. Net profit attributable to equity holders improved by 19.7%. The improved earnings was mainly due to higher net interest and finance income by 15.3% and higher other operating income by 17.6%, which was mainly due to higher income from the fund management business and higher foreign exchange income. These were partially offset by higher other operating expenses by RM172.2 million which was mainly due to the increase in personnel costs resulting from the expansion of marketing sales force and higher business volume

- The growth in the Group’s net interest and finance income was driven by continued strong loans and core deposits growth coupled with sustained strong asset quality, as well as the impact of the various increases in overnight policy rate during the period. Gross loans had grown by 13.6% year-on-year as at 30 September 2010 as compared to 30 September 2009 mainly arising from financing of small- and medium-sized enterprises (“SMEs”), residential mortgages and financing of passenger vehicles. Total core deposits from customers had also grown by 9.6% as compared to 30 September 2009 which partly contributed to the higher net interest income for the current financial period

- The Group's domestic commercial bank, Public Bank, recorded a 39.4% higher pre-tax profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2010 than the previous corresponding period. This was mainly due to higher net interest income, higher dividend income from subsidiaries and higher foreign exchange gain in respect of the hedging of the Group's overseas operations, partially offset by higher other operating expenses and loan impairment allowances

- Pre-tax profit contribution from the Group's overseas operations increased by 13.6% from the previous corresponding period, mainly due to the lower loan impairment allowance in the current period

- For the 3rd quarter ended 30 September 2010, the Group registered an improvement of 22.8% pre-tax profit as compared to the previous corresponding quarter. This was achieved on the back of strong loans and deposits growth and stable asset quality. Earning attributable to equity holders grew by 22.5% over the same period

- The Group's pre-tax profit for the 3rd quarter ended 30 September 2010 shows an increase of 7.1% as compared to the pre-tax profit of RM982.0 million for the preceding quarter ended 30 June 2010. Net profit attributable to equity holders increased by 6.6% over the same period. The improved performance was mainly attributable to higher net interest and finance income by RM33.1 million and higher other operating income by RM27.4 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2235*4 = 0.894, estimate PE on current price 12.78 = 13.74(DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2096*4 = 0.8384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.69/13.62 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.197*4 = 0.788, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.87/13.59 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1965*4 = 0.786, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.64/13.22 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1852*4 = 0.7408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.59 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.177*4 = 0.708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.34/13.12 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1744*4 = 0.6976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.19/11.11 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1949*4 = 0.7796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.22/8.34 (DPS 0.5)

PBBANK latest news (English)


Monday, November 15, 2010

KLCI Stock - PWROOT / 7237 - 2011 Quarter 2

Par Value: 0.20
Market Cap : 300000000*0.76 = 228,000,000 (Small)
NTA per share : (194373-151-5227)/300000 = 0.63 (Decreased)
P/BV : 0.76/0.63 = 1.2063
Forecast P/E now : (0.76-0.08)/0.0542 = 12.55 (High)
ROE : 5.62% (Low)
DY : 0.08/0.76*100 = 10.53% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.7191+0.6211+0.6582)/3 = 0.6661 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 152446/40754 = 3.7406 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (68188+61227)/2/(171624/365) = 137 days
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit stii high, good cash flow, low debt but increasing, raw material increased
Technical Support Price : 0.6
Risk Rating : HIGH
Apex Target Price : 0.63 (28 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- The Group recorded revenue for the second quarter ended 31 August 2010, representing an increase of 4.1% when compared to the previous year's corresponding quarter. This increase is largely attributable to the increase in the sales from the Group's Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) business in both domestic market and oversea market

- The Group recorded a profit after tax for the current quarter which is a decrease of 29.8% compared to the previous year's corresponding quarter. The reasons for the decrease is mainly due to the higher level of marketing and promotional activities undertaken in the current quarter in the local market as well as overseas to expand and extend our product reach and penetration

- The Group showed a slight increase of 0.2% in revenue for the current quarter compared to the revenue recorded for the immediate preceding quarter ended 31 May 2010

- The Group's pat for the current quarter represents a decrease of 13% when compared to the pat for the immediate preceding quarter ended 31 May 2010 due to the higher advertisement and promotion expenses incurred

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0285*2*0.95 = 0.0542, estimate PE on current price 0.76 = 12.55(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0338*1.1 = 0.0372(10% increase from 0.0338), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.55/13.98 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0338(follow 2010 cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.57/13.46 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.25/11.13 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.68/12.03 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.94/12.35 (DPS 0.03)

NATBIO latest news (English)


Sunday, November 14, 2010

KLCI Stock - ASIABIO / 0150 - 2011 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 275000000*0.08 = 22,000,000 (Very Small)
NTA per share : (34490-3549)/252948 = 0.12
P/BV : 0.08/0.12 = 0.6667
Forecast P/E now : 0.08/0.006 = 13.33 (High)
ROE : 3.24% (Low)
DY : Not applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(2 year) : (0.197+0.0456)/2 = 0.1213 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 6407/178 = 35.99 (Very Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (251+1380)/2/(7069/365) = 42 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit more stable
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit very low, very low debt, navps slightly increasing, equity increasing in quicker rate
Technical Support Price : 0.065
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- The ABT Group achieved a consolidated profit after taxation of approximately RM1.07 million on the back of a consolidated revenue of RM4.66 million due mainly to dividend from its incubatees. As the Group is involved in incubation activities especially on high technology areas, it hold investments particularly in start-ups. In view thereof, its performance is subjected to various volatilities

- Revenue for the current quarter and profit before taxation was lower mainly due to dividend income received from its investees in preceeding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0042, estimate PE on current price 0.08 = 19.05
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0036+0.0006(average of eps per quarter in year 2009)*4 = 0.006, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.17/10.08

ASIABIO latest news (English)


Saturday, November 13, 2010

KLCI Stock - ASIAPAC / 4057 - 2011 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 975314960*0.115 = 112,161,220.40 (Small)
NTA per share : (295504-23942)/975315 = 0.28
P/BV : 0.115/0.28 = 0.4107
Forecast P/E now : 0.115/0.004 = 28.75 (Very High)
ROE : 3.97% (Low)
DY : Not applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.1284+0.1807+0.2784)/3 = 0.1958 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 264894/81329 = 3.2571 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (11977+16175)/2/(70611/365) = 72 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 0.14 (PE 7, EPS 0.02)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Strong cash, above moderate debt and increased, property development growth
Technical Support Price : 0.1, 0.08
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):

- The Group recorded a decrease of 81% and 112% in turnover and pre-tax profit respectively as compared to the preceding year corresponding period

- The decrease in turnover and pre-tax profit were mainly due to lower revenue recognised for development activities, the effect of adopting FRS 139 whereby the write back of quoted investments was adjusted in the statement of comprehensive income (the write back of quoted investments for preceeding year corresponding period was adjusted against income statement) and higher provision of doubtful debts

- The Group recorded a pre-tax loss of RM1.055 million in the current quarter as compared to the pre-tax profit of RM12.63 million in the preceding quarter. It was due to lower profit recognized for development activities, effect of adopting FRS 139 whereby the write back of quoted investments was adjusted in the statement of comprehensive income (the write back of quoted investments for preceeding quarter was adjusted against income statement) and higher allowance of doubtful debts in the current quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.005*4 = 0.02, estimate PE on current price 0.115 = 5.75
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.005*4 = 0.02, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5/3.75
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0141, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.09/4.96
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.018, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.72
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0106, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.85/8.49

ASIAPAC latest news (English)


Friday, November 12, 2010

KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2010 Quarter 4

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 4358061345*8.82 = 38,438,101,062.90 (Very Large)
NTA per share : 28778900/4362060 = 6.6
P/BV : 8.82/6.6 = 1.3364
Forecast P/E now : (8.82-0.26)/0.7455 = 11.31 (Moderate)
ROE : 18.05% (Moderate)
DY : 0.26/8.82*100 = 2.95% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(5 year) : (0.4363+0.4034+0.3544+0.3443+0.3132)/5 = 0.3703 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 147955/97008 = 1.5252 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (3881400+3774100)/2/(32320100/365) = 43 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless JPN currency weakeaning
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increasing but profit decreased, good cash flow, strong cash, high debt but decreasing, navps increasing, global coal price increasing, JPY currency increasing
Technical Support Price : 8.6, 8.3
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 9.76 (29 Oct 2010)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-

- During the quarter under review, the Group recorded an increase of 6% sales of electricity as compared to the corresponding quarter last financial year. The electricity demand also showed a positive growth and recorded 5.8% increase from the last corresponding period

- The growth in sales has resulted in higher revenue of 5.5%. Resulting from the higher revenue, the profit attributable to equity holders has increased of more than 100%

- Compared to the immediate preceding quarter, the Group's revenue was 1.9% higher than the preceding quarter

- During the quarter under review, operating expenses recorded an increase of 4.7%

- The weakening of Ringgit against Japanese Yen for the quarter under review has resulted in the Group to record a foreign exchange translation loss of RM35.5 million, as compared to a profit of RM569.1 million recorded in the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate PE on current price 8.82 = 24.04(DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)


Thursday, November 11, 2010

KLCI Stock - ZHULIAN / 5131 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 460000000*1.86 = 855,600,000 (Medium)
NTA per share : (341513-1168)/460000 = 0.74
P/BV : 1.86/0.74 = 2.5135
Forecast P/E now : (1.86-0.12)/0.1896 = 9.18 (High)
ROE : 26.08% (High)
DY : 0.12/1.86*100 = 6.45% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8311+0.8839+0.8569+0.7911)/4 = 0.8408 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 226496/47614 = 4.7569 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (41374+36635)/2/(324925/365) = 43 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 1.9+0.12 = 2.02 (PE 10, EPS 0.1896, DPS 0.12)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 1.8
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, good cash flow, strong cash, low debt, weakening USD
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 2.36 (19 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group recorded 18.7% lower profit before taxation and 11.9% lower revenue for the third quarter of FY 2010 as compared to the corresponding quarter in FY 2009

- The revenue for the current quarter under review was 5.7% lower than the immediate preceding quarter’s, mainly due to the weakening of USD and drop in market demand. The current quarter’s profit before tax has increased 16.4% as compared to the immediate preceding quarter’s, mainly contributed by increase in share of profit in associate

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0431*4*1.1 = 0.1896, estimate PE on current price 1.86 = 9.18(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0522*4*1.1 = 0.2297, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/7.23 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.072*4 = 0.288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.47 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0715*4 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/5.84 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.04 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484*4 = 0.1936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/6.56 (DPS 0.12)

ZHULIAN latest news (English)


Wednesday, November 10, 2010

KLCI Stock - ICAP / 5108 - 2011 Quarter 1

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 140000000*2.04 = 285,600,000 (Small)
NTA per share : 324291/140000 = 2.32
P/BV : 2.04/2.32 = 0.8793
Forecast P/E now : Not applicable
ROE : 15.49% (Moderate)
DY : Not applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : Not applicable
Liquidity Ratio : Not applicable
Receivables Collection Period : Not applicable
My Target Price : 2.3
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : NAV increasing
Technical Support Price : 1.92
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):

- For the three months ended 31 August 2010, the Company recorded a 73.2% higher pbt compared with corresponding period of last year

- The NAV per share as at 31 August 2010 was RM2.32 which is increased of 10% compared with NAV per share of RM2.1 as at 31 May 2010

- In the first quarter ended 31 August 2010, the Company recorded a profit after tax of RM2.032 million, compared with RM31.067 million in the preceding quarter. The difference between the two quarter's performance is due mainly to sales of its holdings in Astro All Asia Netwroks Plc, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad, Lion Diversified Holdings Bhd, Poh Kong Holdings Berhad, Swee Joo Berhad and Hai-O Enterprise Berhad in the preceding quarter. In the current quarter, the Company sold the balance 69,200 shares in Hai-O Enterprise Berhad, resulting in a gain of RM151,251.03 and in the said quarter, the Company added to its investment in Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad

- The NAV per share increased by 10% in the first quarter ended 31 August 2010 to RM2.32, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.1

ICAP latest news (English)


Tuesday, November 9, 2010

KLCI Stock - AIRPORT / 5014 - 2010 Quarter 3

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 1100000000*6.2 = 6,820,000,000 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (3323225-1684655)/1100000 = 1.49
P/BV : 6.2/1.49 = 4.1611
Forecast P/E now : (6.2-0.149)/0.264 = 22.92 (High)
ROE : 9.98% (Low)
DY : 0.149/6.2*100 = 2.4% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.2837+0.2988+0.3106+0.3038)/4 = 0.2992 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 2033153/1400072 = 1.4522 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (776934+599970)/2/(1795073/365) = 139 days
My Target Price : Not interested unless associates recover from loss
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increasing but profit low, strong cash, above moderate debt and increasing, navps increased, passenger traffic increasing, Cargo volume decreased, KLIA2 target completed by April 2012
Technical Support Price : 5.8, 5.4
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 8.47 (01 Nov 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):

- The consolidated revenue of the Group for the current quarter under review was 18.3% higher than the corresponding period last year

- The improved revenue in the current quarter under review was mainly contributed by the Group’s airport operations, driven by a stronger recovery in air travel demand. Passenger movements for the current quarter were 6.6% higher than the corresponding period last year, in which the international and domestic passenger movements improved by 13.5% and 0.7% respectively

- The improved revenue was also contributed by growth in the retail business as well as higher rental revenue derived from additional commercial spaces

- Revenue from non-airport operations, however, dropped by 1.3% from the corresponding period last year, mainly due to lower revenue recorded in project and repair maintenance services as well as the agriculture segment by 16.4% and 6.0% respectively. The reduction in revenue from project and repair maintenance services was mainly attributed to the lower number of projects secured during the period. Despite the higher Fresh Fruit Bunch price, revenue from the agriculture segment was lower than the same period of last year due to the lower total crop harvested (2010: 65,661MT / RM509 Vs 2009: 76,555MT/ RM419) attributable to the clearing of a portion of the plantation land to make way for the construction of the new KLIA 2

- Operating profit for the current quarter and financial period-to-date under review improved by 12.2% and 16.6% respectively as compared to corresponding period last year. The favourable variance was due to higher revenue but reduced by higher staff costs, repair and maintenance and provision for doubtful debts

- Profit before tax and zakat (PBT) for the current quarter and financial period-to-date under review, however, were lower than the corresponding period last year by 17.9% and 9.5% respectively, mainly due to the adoption of FRS 139 resulting in the higher share of losses in an associate company, whereby, the concession payable by the associate company was recognized at fair value and subsequently at amortized cost. Gains and losses arising from the changes in the fair value were recognized in the income statement

- In addition, the PBT figure for the corresponding financial period-to-date under review in the preceding year had included a reversal of lease rental payable to the Government totaling RM52.0 million and a backdated user fee amount in respect of financial year 2008 paid to the Government of RM45.8 million subsequent to the signing of the Operating Agreements

- There were also other one-off transactions pursuant to the signing of the Operating Agreements and Share Sales Agreements for the disposal of Sepang International Circuit Sdn Bhd and NECC Sdn Bhd. However, after considering the said transactions, operationally, the Group had performed better as reflected by the higher passenger and revenue numbers

- The EP statement is disclosed on a voluntary basis. EP is a measure of value created by a business during a single period reflecting how much return a business makes over its cost of capital, that is, the difference between the Company’s rate of return and cost of capital

- The Group recorded an economic profit of RM28.7 million for current quarter under review as compared to RM22.3 million in the corresponding period last year and RM85.1 million for financial period-to-date under review as compared to RM 54.8 million in the corresponding period last year

- The consolidated revenue of the Group for the current quarter under review was slightly higher by 2.4% as compared to the immediate preceding quarter, mainly due to higher aeronautical revenue which was attributable to stronger passenger numbers. Passenger movements for the current quarter were 2.0% higher than the immediate preceding quarter, in which passenger movements for international improved by 5.3% whereas the domestic passenger declined by 2.0%

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.06*4*1.1 = 0.264(associates increasing loss), estimate PE on current price 6.2 = 22.92(DPS 0.149)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3233*0.95 = 0.3071, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.12/16.55 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3429*0.9 = 0.3086 (10% drop from 0.3429), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.24/14.81 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.086*4 = 0.344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.97/12.89 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0758*4 = 0.3032, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.72/11.36 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.068*4 = 0.272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.6 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0695*4 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.07/10.27 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/7.63 (DPS 0.1855)

AIRPORT latest news (English)


Monday, November 8, 2010

KLCI Stock - HSL / 6238 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 582676000*1.89 = 1,101,257,640 (Large)
NTA per share : 315591/549155 = 0.57
P/BV : 1.89/0.57 = 3.3158
Forecast P/E now : (1.89-0.026)/0.1205 = 15.47 (High)
ROE : 21.58% (High)
DY : 0.026/1.89*100 = 1.38% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.7825+0.7531+0.7786)/3 = 0.7714 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 393192/208057 = 1.8898 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (275595+212433)/2/(418701/365) = 212 days
My Target Price : 1.89+0.03 = 1.91 (PE 15, EPS 0.1263, DPS 0.026)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 1.7
My Comment : Revenue and profit QbQ increasing stop but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, slightly bad cash flow, above moderate debt and slightly increased, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 1.78, 1.66
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 1.92 (22 Sep 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The Group’s revenue for the quarter under review is 35.5% higher against the preceding year corresponding quarter’s. Net profit before tax of the Group for the current quarter is 40.2% higher as compared to the preceding year’s corresponding quarter

- The net profit before tax of the Group for the current quarter is 31.8% higher compared to the immediate preceding quarter on the back of the Group’s revenue 20.4% higher

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0574*2*1.1 = 0.1263, estimate PE on current price 1.89 = 14.76(DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.95/11.49 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.88/11.05 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.96/8.75 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0233*4 = 0.0932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/9.7 (DPS 0.016)

HSL latest news (English)


Sunday, November 7, 2010

KLCI Stock - SAPCRES / 8575 - 2011 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 1276722448*2.53 = 3,230,107,793.44 (Large)
NTA per share : (1046604-149213)/1276722 = 0.7
P/BV : 2.53/0.7 = 3.6143
Forecast P/E now : (2.53-0.07)/0.1751 = 14.05 (High)
ROE : 13.73% (Moderate)
DY : 0.07/2.53*100 = 2.77% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8573+0.9048+0.8571)/3 = 0.8731 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 2329774/1769919 = 1.3163 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (1557758+1813516)/2/(3077968/365) = 199 days (Long)
My Target Price : 2.8+0.07 = 2.87 (PE 16, EPS 0.1751, DPS 0.07)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, strong cash, high debt and increasing, receivables increasing, oil price above $80 but gas price decreasing
Technical Support Price : 1.9
Risk Rating : MODERATE
ECM Target Price : 2.64

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- Revenue increased by 34% from preceding quarter mainly due to higher revenue from the Installation of Pipeline and Facilities (“IPF”), drilling and operation and maintenance divisions

- Profit before tax increased by 14.3% from previous quarter mainly due to higher contribution from the drilling division

- Revenue for the current quarter was 12.9% lower compared to last year's corresponding quarter mainly due to lower activities in the IPF, marine services and operations and maintenance divisions

- Profit before tax was an increase of 4.6% compared to the preceding year’s corresponding quarter mainly due to higher contribution from IPF activities and the drilling division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0417*4*1.05 = 0.1751, estimate PE on current price 2.53 = 14.05(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1345(maintain same eps as year 2010 due to revenue decreased but profit increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.77/15.54 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1345*0.95 = 0.1278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/14.08 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0422*4*0.8 = 0.135, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/15.48 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0414*4*0.9 = 0.149, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.71/11.01 (DPS 0.06)

SAPCRES latest news (English)