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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

KLCI Stock - MISC / 3816 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 4463793103*9 = 40,174,137,927 (Large)
NTA per share : (19009095-960689)/4463793 = 4.04
P/BV : 9/4.04 = 2.2277 (Moderate)
Forecast P/E now : (9-0.35)/0.1828 = 47.32 (High)
ROE : 3.36% (Low)
DY : 0.35/9*100 = 3.89% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.3903+0.4274+0.4132)/3 = 0.4103 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 6898856/8236979 = 0.8375 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (3118289+2858759)/2/(14466643/365) = 75 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue dropping, low ROE, bad cash flow, high PE, high debt, navps decreasing
Technical Support Price : 8
Risk Rating : HIGH
OSK Target Price : 10 (25 Feb 2010)

My study based on 2010 Quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Compare to last year, the decrease of profit before taxation was mainly due to lower profit in Petroleum business and higher losses in Chemical and Liner businesses. The Group's cost reduction efforts have led to lower operating costs especially in cargo costs, charter hire payable and slots payable
- Compare to preceding quarter, profit before taxation was higher (excluding loss on disposal of ships) mainly from increased profit in LNG and Heavy Engineering businesses
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0457*4=0.1828, estimate PE on current price 8.01 = 41.9(DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0457*4=0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 47.37/40.59 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0544*4=0.2176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42/37.91 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.058*4=0.232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 37.07/33.62 (DPS 0.35)

MISC Latest news from The Star


Tuesday, March 30, 2010

KLCI Stock - SPSETIA / 8664 - 2010 Quarter 1

OSK Target Price: 3.59
My Target Price: 4.48+0.14=4.62 (PE 26, EPS 0.1724, DPS 0.14)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=3.8)
Reason: Overvalue, low ROE

My study based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s profit and revenue were mainly derived from its property development activities carried out in the Klang Valley, Johor Bahru and Penang. Ongoing projects which contributed to the Group’s profit and revenue include Setia Alam and Setia Eco-Park at Shah Alam, Setia Walk at Pusat Bandar Puchong, Setia Sky Residences at Jalan Tun Razak, Bukit Indah, Setia Indah, Setia
Tropika and Setia Eco Gardens in Johor Bahru and Setia Pearl Island in Penang. Apart from property development, the Group’s construction and wood-based manufacturing activities also contributed to the earnings achieved
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1724 (3% increase from 0.1674), estimate PE on current price 4.18 = 23.43(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.25/21.5 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.63/21 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.56/22.81 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.69/16.19 (DPS 0.17)

SPSETIA Latest news from The Star

Related companies: MAHSINGKELADI


Monday, March 29, 2010

KLCI Stock - TANJONG / 2267 - 2010 Quarter 4

TANJONG PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY

Listing Date: 24.12.1991
Market: MAIN
Sector: TRADING/SERVICES
Par Value: 7.5 p
Major Industry: Recreation
Sub Industry : Miscellaneous Recreation


TANJONG PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY is an investment holding company. The Company’s subsidiaries are engaged in power generation, gaming, leisure and property investment. The Company operates in four segments: Power Generation relates to the ownership, development and operation of power plants; Gaming comprises the Numbers Forecast Totalisator (NFO) and Racing Totalisator (RTO) businesses; Property Investment relates to the leasing and maintenance of Menara Maxis, and Leisure refers to the operation of the TI resort and the film exhibition business. In March 2009, the Company announced that KN Power Services Limited is its subsidiary undertaking. On March 30, 2009, it incorporated a wholly owned subsdiary, KN Holdings (L) Ltd., with 55% of the share capital of KN Holdings held by TEH Ventures (L) Ltd (a wholly owned subsidiary of Tanjong) and the remaining 45% held by Aljomaih Automotive Company Limited.

OSK Target Price: 18.6
My Target Price: 17.6+0.9=18.5 (PE 10, EPS 1.76, DPS 0.9)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=17)
Reason: Overvalue but dividend rate 5% (on RM18)

My study based on 2010 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Power Generation revenue decreased due to a reduction in energy billings by Malaysian power plants, offset by increased revenue from overseas power plants. Gaming revenue decreased due to an increase in the Numbers Forecast Operations ("NFO") prize payout ratio from 63% to 69%
- Group profit before taxation for the current quarter increased due to refinancing costs totalling RM141 million on two Egyptian power plants which were incurred in the corresponding quarter and lower revaluation surplus recorded in the current quarter
- The operating profit of Power Generation increased due to the increased revenue, lower plant maintenance expenses, reduced corporate and business development costs and the non-recurring RM85 million windfall profit levy which was charged in the previous year
- Gross sales proceeds from the NFO business increased due to sixteen additional draws but the Gaming segment operating profit however reduced due mainly to an escalation in racing totalisator expenses
- In the Leisure segment, improved attendances and higher spend in Tropical Islands together with the full year contribution from TGV Cinemas Sdn Bhd, resulted increase in revenue and a significantly lower operating loss
- Net investment income is lower mainly due to the recognition, in the previous year, of investment gains from the disposal of the Group’s interest in Arqiva
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1.76 (5% increase from 1.6783), estimate PE on current price 18 = 9.72(DPS 0.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.43*4=1.72, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.98/9.01 (DPS 0.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.43*4=1.72, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.26/8.2 (DPS 0.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.43*4=1.72, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.8/7.21 (DPS 0.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.15, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.09/10.43 (DPS 0.9)

TANJONG Latest news from The Star

Related companies: YTLPOWRBJTOTO


Sunday, March 28, 2010

KLCI Stock - KELADI / 6769 - 2010 Quarter 4

My Target Price: 0.14+0.01=0.15 (PE 9, EPS 0.0155, DPS 0.01)
My Decision: NOT BUY (unless price < RM0.15) My Comment: Revenue dropped year-to-date, good cash flow, 6% dividend rate base on RM0.165 My opinion based on 2010 Q4 report (number in '000): - The decrease in revenue and profit before tax were mainly due to lower contribution from the property development activities and decrease in sales of FFB. The average net price per ton of FFB for current financial year was RM460 compared with the average net price per ton of FFB of RM600 in previous financial year - Compare to preceding quarter, the significant decrease in the profit before tax is due to lower progress revenue recognition from property development activities. The Group had completed and handover Taman Lagenda Phase 1 & 2 in preceding quarter, whilst revenue from Taman Lagenda Phase 5 is at the early stages of development and no progress billings were made during the current quarter - Launched 297 units of medium cost houses (Taman Lagenda Phase 5) in January 2010 - Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0155 (13% drop from 0.0178), estimate PE on current price 0.165 = 10(DPS 0.01) - Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0218+0.0289+0.019)/3 = 0.0232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.6 (DPS 0.015) - Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.5/10.48 (DPS 0.015) - Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0042*4 = 0.0168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.52/7.74 (DPS 0.015) - Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.11/8.06 (DPS 0.015) KELADI Latest news from The Star


Saturday, March 27, 2010

KLCI Stock - GAMUDA / 5398 - 2010 Quarter 2

OSK Target Price: 2.75
My TP: 2.96+0.12=3.08 (PE 22, EPS 0.1344, DPS 0.12), 8.45% price increase from 2.84
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price < 2.7)
Reason: low ROE (<10), no major improve on revenue, high PE

My study based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- Compare to last year, the increase in profit before tax is due to higher contributions from all divisions
- Compare to preceding quarter, the higher profit before tax is mainly due to higher contributions from the construction division and the property division
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate PE on current price 2.84 = 20.24(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)

GAMUDA Latest news from The Star

Related companies: WCTMRCB


Wednesday, March 24, 2010

KLCI Stock - TANJONG / 2267 - 2010 Quarter 3

OSK Target Price: 18.6
My Target Price: 1.72+0.9=18.1 (PE 10, EPS 1.72, DPS 0.9),
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=17)
Reason: Overvalue but dividend rate around 5%

My study based on 2010 Quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Power Generation revenue decreased due to a reduction in energy billings by Malaysian power plants, offset by increased revenue from overseas power plants. Gaming revenue increased due to seven additional draws
- Group profit before taxation for the current quarter increased due to a higher contribution from overseas power plants, lower corporate and business development costs and a RM55 million provision for windfall profit levy in the corresponding quarter
- In the Leisure segment, improved attendances and spending in Tropical Islands together with the full period contribution from TGV Cinemas Sdn Bhd, resulted in increase in revenue
- Net investment income is lower mainly due to the recognition, in the corresponding period, of investment gains from the disposal of the Group’s interest in Arqiva
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.43*4=1.72, estimate PE on current price 17.74 = 9.79(DPS 0.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.43*4=1.72, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.26/8.2 (DPS 0.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.43*4=1.72, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.8/7.21 (DPS 0.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.15, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.09/10.43 (DPS 0.9)


Monday, March 22, 2010

KLCI Stock - SIME / 4197 - 2010 Quarter 2

OSK Target Price: 7.02
My Target Price: 7.4+0.22=7.62 (PE 20, EPS 0.37, DPS 0.22)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=7.7)
Reason: Overvalue, low ROE, some division still recorded a loss

My study based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Plantation posted a higher contribution of 14% largely due to profit from the downstream operations and a 16% increase in sales volume of crude palm oil (CPO) which mitigated the effects of the lower average CPO price realised of RM2,222 per tonne compared to RM2,304 per tonne for the previous year
- The higher contribution from Property was largely on account of the RM37.5 million gain recorded following the disposal of a subsidiary and the higher contribution from Bukit Jelutong, Nilai Impian townships and USJ Heights townships
- The effects of the slow down in the mining, marine and oil & gas sectors in Malaysia, Singapore and Australia took a toll on the contribution from Industrial which fell by 15% due to the slower off-take for new equipment and power systems rom New Caledonia and Papua New Guinea operations. China operations, on the other hand, registered some improvement due to equipment sales for infrastructure projects
- Motors posted a 31% higher profit for the current half-year period mainly due to the gain of RM27.7 million from the disposal of a property, better operating results from Singapore, Thailand and New Zealand and dividend income received
- Energy & Utilities recorded a loss due to cost escalation on fabrication and engineering projects as a result of higher off-shore costs and lower revenue in the oil & gas sector
- Healthcare & Others recorded a 233% increase in earnings due to the better overall performance from insurance, bedding and healthcare sectors together with the gain on disposal of an associate amounting to RM3.8 million but decreased by 20% due mainly to the gain of RM3.8 million registered in the preceding quarter following the disposal of an associate
- Corporate expenses was lower due mainly to the inclusion of exchange gains totalling RM14.9 million as compared against the corresponding period’s loss of RM99.7 million but higher compared to the preceding quarter due mainly to the exchange losses of RM2.2 million and RM17.1 million
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.37, estimate PE on current price 8.44 = 22.22(DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.44/23.76(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.37, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.43/21.59 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.35/18.91 (DPS 0.27)


Sunday, March 21, 2010

KLCI Stock - TM / 4863 - 2009 Quarter 4

OSK Target Price: 3.03
My Target Price: 2.68+0.23=2.91 (PE 14, EPS 0.1916, DPS 0.23)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=2.9)
Reason: Overvalue, low ROE, revenue and dividend dropped

My study based on 2009 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Compare to preceding year quarter, the Group revenue decreased, mainly attributed to lower revenue from special project, MERS 999. Excluding revenue from MERS 999, the current quarter revenue is only 1.5% lower
- Internet and multimedia revenue registered 2.6% growth arising from growth in broadband customers (excluding Hotspot customers)
- Group profit after tax and minority interests (PATAMI) increased mainly attributed to unrealised exchange gain on translation of foreign currency borrowings
- Compare to preceding quarter, the group revenue increased, mainly driven by higher revenue from data services and other telecommunication related services
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0479*4=0.1916, estimate PE on current price 3.23 = 15.66(DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0505*4 = 0.202, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.54/13.71(DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/13.85 (DPS 0.22)


Saturday, March 20, 2010

KLCI Stock - HAIO / 7668 - 2010 Quarter 3

OSK TP: 5.04
My TP: 4.47+0.18=4.65 (PE 12, EPS 0.3729, DPS 0.18)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=4.2)
Reason: Overvalue

 My study based on 2010 Q3 report (number in '000):
 - Comapre to last year, higher revenue and higher profit mainly contributed by its principal subsidiary, the MLM division and higher Group’s rental income received
- Compare to preceding quarter, registered marginal lower revenue due to the MLM division had just completed its sales campaign in the second quarter whereas for the retail division, the pre-stock take sales promotion campaign was usually carried out half yearly. Lower profit due to the reasons as mentioned above coupled with higher personnel expenses and higher A&P costs incurred. Moreover realisation of exchange fluctuation reserve on disposal of foreign associates, amounting to RM 0.6 million was booked in the second quarter
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3729, estimate PE on current price 4.68 = 12.07(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.78/7.44(DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)


Friday, March 19, 2010

YTLPOWR / 6742 - 2010 Q2

YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BERHAD

Listing Date: 23.05.1997
IPO Price: 2.700
Market: MAIN
Sector: INFRASTRUCTURE
Par Value: 0.50
Major Industry: Utilities
Sub Industry: Electric Power Companies


YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BERHAD is an investment holding company that provides administrative and technical support services to its subsidiaries. The Company operates in three business segments: investment holding, power generation and sale of electricity and sales of water and disposal of waste water. Its subsidiaries are engaged in the provision of wire line and wireless broadband access and other related services; developing, constructing, completing, maintaining and operating power plants, and sale of electricity. On June 18, 2009, the Company acquired a 60% interest in YTL Communications Sdn Bhd. They provide operating energy facilities and undertake oil trading activities and provide wire line and wireless broadband access respectively. In September 2009, the Company incorporated YTL DCS Pte Ltd. On February 18, 2010, the Company incorporated YTL Utilities Finance 5 Limited (YTLUF5) and YTL Communications International Limited.

My TP: 2.28+0.15=2.43 (PE 16, EPS 0.1424, DPS 0.15), 10.45% price increase from current price 2.2
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, profit growth, strong cash flow, high dividend (6.82%)

My study based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- Comapre to last year, the increase of revenue and profit principally due to consolidation of the financial result of PowerSeraya, a wholly owned subsidiary which was acquired on 6 March 2009
- Compare to preceding quarter, increase in profit principally due to better performance in multi utilities business (merchant) segment of the Group
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0356*4 = 0.1424, estimate PE on current price 2.2 = 14.4(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0328*4 = 0.1312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.23/15.02 (DPS 0.15)
- No Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0335*4 = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/14.48 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.6/12.72 (DPS 0.15)


Thursday, March 18, 2010

TOPGLOV / 7113 - 2010 Q2

TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BERHAD

Listing Date: 16.05.2002
IPO Price: 2.700
Market: MAIN
Sector: INDUSTRIAL
Par Value: 0.50
Major Industry: Apparel & Textiles
Sub Industry: Apparel Manufacturers
Market Cap : 4,155,782,368.50 (12 April 2010)
NTA per share : (929267-22457)/299212=3.0307
P/B : 13.5/3.0307=4.4544
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.3528+1.2419+1.1662)/3=1.2536
Liquidity Ratio : 684454/293275=2.3338
Receivables Collection Period : (206596+228574)/2/(1531909/365)=51 days


Top Glove Corporation Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company providing management services. The Company’s subsidiaries are engaged in the manufacture and trading of gloves; producing and selling latex concentrate, and property investment and trading of machinery. It operates in Malaysia, Thailand and People’s Republic of China. The Company's subsidiaries include Top Glove Sdn. Bhd., TG Medical Sdn. Bhd., Great Glove Sdn. Bhd., Top Glove Engineering Sdn. Bhd. and TG Medical (U.S.A.) Inc.

OSK TP: 15.15
My TP: 14.1+0.22=14.32 (PE 15, EPS 0.94, DPS 0.22), 14.01% price increase from current price 12.56
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue and profit growth, strong cash flow

My study based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- The Group continues with its strong profit growth momentum as it managed to capture additional market share, especially from the emerging countries and also benefiting from cost saving measures implemented at all factories, improvements in product quality, productivity, as well as aggressive marketing strategies to maintain its world number one market position
- The Group managed to increase the profit as compared with the preceding quarter mainly due to good cost control, management efficiency, glove quality improvement and also stronger demand due to the increasing healthcare standards and greater hygiene awareness
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.235*4 = 0.94, estimate PE on current price 12.56 = 13.13(DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.217*4 = 0.868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/10.75 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.191*4 = 0.764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.23/10.2 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1424*4 = 0.5696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/10.8 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1221*4 = 0.4884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.21/9.89 (DPS 0.15)


Tuesday, March 16, 2010

BJTOTO / 1562 - 2010 Q3

BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO BERHAD

Listing Date: 04.05.1972
Market: MAIN
Sector: TRADING/SERVICES
Par Value: 0.10
Major Industry: Recreation
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Recreation


Berjaya Sports Toto Berhad (BToto) is principally engaged in investment holding and provision of management services to its subsidiary companies. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in the operations of Toto betting; leasing of online lottery equipment; manufacture and distribution of computerized lottery and voting systems; property investment and development, and investment holding. The Company operates in two segments: toto betting and leasing of lottery equipment, and others, which includes property investment and development, investment holding, and manufacture and distribution of computerized lottery and voting systems. On September 5, 2008, the Company incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, Berjaya-ILTS Limited. In May 2009, the Company, through its subsidiary Berjaya Sports Toto (Cayman) Limited (BSTC), acquired 6.81% interest in Prime Gaming Philippines, Inc.

OSK Research TP: 4.9 (12 March 2010)
My TP: 4.08+0.3(DPS) = 4.38 (PE 14, eps 0.2916)
My Decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Revenue drop, new game not sure it revenue, give share dividend (no cash until sold)

My opinion based on 2010 Q3 report (number in '000):
- Decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit mainly due to the results of Sports Toto Malaysia Sdn Bhd ("Sports Toto") as explained in the ensuing paragraph coupled with higher finance cost
incurred, while Prime Gaming Philippines, Inc. registered an increase in revenue of 1.9% but reported a drop in pre-tax profit of 13.2%
- Previous year had benefited from the traditionally high Chinese Lunar New Year festive sales in the month of January coupled with the strong sales from high jackpots in the Mega 6/52 game. The lower drop in pre-tax profit as compared to the decrease in revenue was mainly due to the lower prize payout in the current Q
- 30.5 share dividend approved for financial year ending 30 April 2010
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate PE on current price 4.37 = 13.94(DPS 0.305)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)


Monday, March 15, 2010

AIRPORT / 5014 - 2009 Q4

Par Value: 1.00

OSK TP: 5.5 (12 March 2010)
My TP: 5.16+0.233=5.39 (PE 15, EPS 0.344, DPS 0.233), 14.68% price increase from price 4.7
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue and profit growth

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- The improved revenue in both current quarter and year-to-date under review was due to growth in airport operations as a result of stronger passenger movements
- The much improved revenue was also as a result of higher retail sales and rental derived from additional commercial space
- Higher profit before tax due to overall higher revenue and write-back in the provision for doubtful debts
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.086*4 = 0.344, estimate PE on current price 4.7 = 12.99(DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0758*4 = 0.3032, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.72/11.36 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.068*4 = 0.272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.6 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0695*4 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.07/10.27 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/7.63 (DPS 0.1855)


Sunday, March 14, 2010

MRCB / 1651 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 1.75 (10 March 2010)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- Higher revenue was recorded in most of the Group’s business segments contributed from the increased activities of its ongoing works. However, the higher revenue was partly offset by the lower contribution from the property development segment which enjoyed relatively higher revenue recognition in the preceding period due to a one-off land sale in KL Sentral development
- The turnaround to profitability was due to the overall improved operational results mainly contributed from the positive margins of its engineering and construction division arising from partial recovery of material cost stability and the positive impact of its value engineering cost control efforts. In addition, the loss in the preceding year was also due to the high finance cost arising from the one-off premium charged on the early settlement of a bond issued by a subsidiary.
- EPF Board is hence obliged to extend a conditional takeover offer under Part II of
the Malaysian Code on Takeovers and Mergers, 1998 to acquire all the remaining MRCB
shares not already owned by EPF; at an offer price of RM1.50
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0136*4 = 0.0544, estimate PE on current price 1.5 = 27.39(DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.011*4 = 0.044, estimate highest/lowest PE = 40.91/28.64
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0132*4 = 0.0528, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.65/23.11


Saturday, March 13, 2010

AXIATA / 6888 - 2009 Q4

Market Cap : 8445154455*3.75 = 31,669,329,206.25 (Large)
NTA per share : (18184085-8563450)/8445154 = 1.14
P/BV : 3.75/1.14 = 3.2895
Forecast P/E now : 3.75/0.2524 = 14.86 (High)
ROE : 8.75% (Low)
DY : -
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.3528+0.3038+0.4082)/3 = 0.3549 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 3697735/6633770 = 0.5574 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (1559158+1539878)/2/(13105054/365) = 43 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 3.53 (PE 14, EPS 0.2524)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price less than 3.6)
My Comment : Revenue growth average 8% QbQ, weakening of USD against IDR, navps increasing, debt decreased, cash drop 38.82% compared to year 2008
Technical Support Price : 3.7, 3.4
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 4.24 (12 March 2010)

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- QoQ driven by higher subscriber base in all its operating companies from XL Group and Axiata (Bangladesh) Limited (“AxB”) but competition and heavy price cuts in Cambodia market continue to impact revenue growth
- Lower net finance costs as a result of repayment of debt and reduction of overall debt position
- Higher profit was driven mainly by improved contribution from Celcom Group, XL Group, AxB and Dialog Group, associate and joint venture companies and foreign exchange gain as a result of weakening of USD against IDR
- YoY improved revenue performance was primarily attributed to higher contribution from Celcom Group, XL Group and AxB resulted from increasing trend in subscriber base and higher broadband contribution
- Higher net finance costs as a result of an increase in its debt position arising mainly from external borrowings of XL Group for Celcom Group. XL Group and Celcom Group
- Improved profit contribution from associate and joint venture companies from MobileOne Ltd and Idea
- The Group’s other operating cost increased mainly resulted from increase in content provider charges, higher network related cost and increased in Universal Service Provision charges. Foreign exchange gain has reduced as a result of relatively stable USD exchange rate against local currency of key Opcos
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.631(average recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.2524+(0.05*0.2524) = 0.265(5% grow from 0.2524), estimate PE on current price 3.75 = 14.86
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0595*4 = 0.238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12.61
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0579*4 = 0.2316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.12/12.52

AXIATA Latest news from The Star

Related companies: MAXISDIGI


Friday, March 12, 2010

WCT / 9679 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 3.08 (10 March 2010)
My TP: 2.56+0.1=2.66 (PE 16, EPS 0.16, DPS 0.1)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=2.2)
Reason: Overvalue, project delay

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- Higher revenue attributable to the construction activities
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate PE on current price 2.7 = 16.25(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/13.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0535*4 = 0.214, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.07 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/8.48 (DPS 0.095, economy crisis)


Thursday, March 11, 2010

AMWAY / 6351 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 8.95 (01 March 2010)
My TP: 6.77+0.48=7.25 (PE 17, EPS 0.3984, DPS 0.48)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=7.2) Reason: Overvalue, Many lower result however dividend >6%

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- Sales revenue recorded an increase of 2.9% for the year ended 31 December 2009 as compared to the preceding year mainly due to successful sales and marketing programs
- Pre-tax profit decreased by 26.3% for the quarter under review as compared to same period last year, mainly due to unfavourable foreign exchange rate of Ringgit against US Dollar and higher advertising and promotional expenses incurred, lower interest rate income, and investment in consumer access driven strategies
- Revenue decreased marginally by 1.7% as compared to the preceding quarter
- Pre-tax profit decreased by 21.2% mainly due to higher advertising and product promotional expenses in line with the Group’s initiatives to promote brand awareness in conjunction with the opening of the new headquarters
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate PE on current price 7.3 = 17.12(DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246*4 = 0.4984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/13.46 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.099*4 = 0.396, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/16.92 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.118*4 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.79/13.73 (DPS 0.52)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1332*4 = 0.5328, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.06/11.75 (DPS 0.54)


Wednesday, March 10, 2010

BHIC / 8133 - 2009 Q4

Market Cap : 1,036,068,250.38 (12 April 2010)
NTA per share : 1.5102
P/B : 2.7612
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.9379+1.0674+0.3435)/3=0.7835
Liquidity Ratio : 325641/181856=1.7907
Receivables Collection Period : (272241+153440)/2/(543851/365)=142 days

TA Securities Research TP: 6.1 (03 Dec 09)
My TP: 4.19+0.06=4.25 (PE 14, EPS 0.2996, DPS 0.06)
My decision: NOT BUY (except price uptrend appear)
Reason: Overvalue

My opinion based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- The Group's revenue increased but recorded a lower profit before tax attributed to higher cost of projects and lower share of profits from Associate, lower share of contribution from associates because in 2008, there was a reversal of notional tax charge
- Compared to the previous quarter, revenue had increased mainly due to progress achieved for contracts in hand. However, profit before taxation declined due to higher cost of completion for on-going projects
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0749*4 = 0.2996, estimate PE on current price 4.4 = 14.49(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.16 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0709*4 = 0.2836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/16.24 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0616*4 = 0.2464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.99/12.68 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0602*4 = 0.2408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/9.7 (DPS 0.055)


Tuesday, March 9, 2010

TONGHER / 5010 - 2009 Q4

TONG HERR RESOURCES BERHAD

Listing Date: 03.11.1999
IPO Price: 4.800
Market: MAIN
Sector: INDUSTRIAL
Par Value: 1.00
Major Industry: Machinery & Equipment
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Machinery & Equipment


Tong Herr Resources Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company’s subsidiaries include Tong Heer Fasteners Co. Sdn. Bhd. engaged in the manufacturing and selling of stainless steel fasteners, including nuts, bolts, screws and all other threaded items, and Tong Heer Fasteners (Thailand) Co., Ltd. engaged in the manufacturing and selling of stainless steel fasteners including, bolts, screws and all other threaded items.

My TP: 2.25+0.05=2.3 (PE 12, EPS 0.1876, DPS 0.05), 16.75% increase from current price 1.97
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue increased

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- The higher profit before income tax in this reporting quarter as compared to the results in corresponding period last year are due to lower cost of raw materials purchased in the preceding quarters
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0469*4 = 0.1876, estimate PE on current price 1.97 = 10.23(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.39 (DPS 0.05)


KURASIA / 5097 - 2009 Q6

OSK TP: 0.92 (24 Feb 2010)
My TP: 0.68 (PE 9, EPS 0.0753), 16% price earn from 0.57
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Many result declined, higher tax rate

My study based on 2009 Q6 report (number in '000):
- Compare to last year, the significant improvement wasmainly driven by a very strong turnaround performance on the Group’s investment portfolio year-on-year
- On the underwriting end, the Group’s gross premium and earned premium declined year-on-year due to its more stringentrisk selection practice
- Compare to preceding quarter, both underwriting and investmentperformance slowed down. Whilst the Group’s gross premium improved, earned premium declined, underwriting surplus declined, investment and other income declined
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q6 result announced = 0.0753, estimate PE on current price 0.57 = 7.57
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q5 result announced = 0.0216*4 = 0.0864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.32/7.29
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0287*4 = 0.1148, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.88/4.53
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0177*4 = 0.0708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.4/4.87
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced


MMCCORP / 2194 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 2.95 (19 Jan 10)
My decison: Not BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- Contribution from Engineering & Construction division was lower, mainly due to revisions in the overall margin of the Double Track project. There were also losses from our associate, Zelan Berhad amounting to RM90.8 million for its ongoing projects in the Middle East
- Lower contribution from Transportation & Logistics division due to the impact of the depressed economic environment
- The Corporate division registered lower contribution, mainly due to an exceptional gain from the disposal of a subsidiary coupled with the negative goodwill derived from the acquisition of Aliran Ihsan Resources Berhad (“AIRB”) recognised in the previous financial year. Finance costs were higher at MMCB Company level consistent with the increase in borrowings following the acquisition of Senai Airport Terminal Services Sdn. Bhd. in the current financial year
- Improvement from the Energy & Utilities division, mainly driven by better performance of Malakoff Corporation Berhad. Results from this division was also better due to consolidation of full year results of AIRB as opposed to only two months in the previous year
- Compare to preceding quarter, lower contribution from the energy and utilities division as a result of the provision for the impairment loss on intangible assets of an associate made
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0354*4 = 0.1416, estimate PE on current price 2.49 = 17.25(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.035*4 = 0.14, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.89/15.75 (DPS 0.025)
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced


Monday, March 8, 2010

LEADER / 4529 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 1.16 (18 Feb 2010)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue, cumulative revenue dropped, pbt dropped

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- The Group's profit before taxation for the current reporting quarter was lower as there were reversal of provisions in the corresponding quarterended 31 December 2008
- The year-to-date lower revenue due to lower sales volume coupled with lower metal prices had resulted in the Group registering both lowergross profit and profit before tax
- Compare to previous quarter, profit before taxation was lower due to less favourable sales mix
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0261*4 = 0.1044, estimate PE on current price 0.915 = 8.48(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0363*4 = 0.1452, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.44/4.92 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.032*4 = 0.128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.29/5.35 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/5.2 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0289*4 = 0.1156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.97/3.16 (DPS 0.03)


Sunday, March 7, 2010

MUDAJYA / 5085 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 6.48
My TP: 6.17+0.036=6.21 (PE 14, EPS 0.4408, DPS 0.036)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue growth, good cash flow

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- The growth in revenue and profit before taxation were mainly attributable to the increased level of activities
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1102*4 = 0.4408, estimate PE on current price 5.38 = 12.12(DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4 = 0.3792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.76/10.68 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0711*4 = 0.2844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/11.25 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0377*4 = 0.1508, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.6/9.08 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/9.58 (DPS 0.045)


TCHONG / 4405 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 4.26 (12 March 2010)
My TP: 4.09 + 0.11 = 4.2 (PE 16, EPS 0.2556, DPS 0.11)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Revenue and profit rose

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- Revenues rose 10.8% to RM720.2 million in comparison to the same period in 2008. These headline numbers are achieved during a seasonally weaker period
- Margins have begun to rise in earnest after falling four consecutive quarters. Q409 bottom line was flattered by a stronger Ringgit and higher Reinvestment Allowance claims that lowered the tax rate considerably
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0639*4 = 0.2556, estimate PE on current price 3.28 = 12.4(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = .0527*4 = 0.2108, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/10.44 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0528*4 = 0.2112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.31/8.19 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0626*4 = 0.2504, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.35/5.39 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0425*4 = 0.17, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.12/6.12 (DPS 0.1)


3A / 0012 - 2009 Q4

Market Cap : 369600019*1.9 = 702,240,036.10 (Small)
NTA per share : 136245/369600 = 0.37
P/BV : 1.9/0.37 = 5.1351 (High)
Forecast P/E now : (1.9-0.016)/0.076 = 24.79 (High)
ROE : 13.24% (Moderate)

My TP: 1.22+0.016=1.24 (EPS 0.076, PE 16, DPS 0.016)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- There is an increase of 71.5% in the turnover of the Group for the current quarter from RM32.177 million
to RM55.197 million as compared to the corresponding quarter in the preceding year mainly due to better demand for the Group's products
- The Group's profit before taxation is significantly higher or from RM0.234 million in the preceding year corresponding quarter to RM6.493 million for the current quarter under review as a result of higher turnover and improvement in products margin
- The Group's turnover in the current quarter of RM55.197 million is 22.3% higher than RM45.136 million recorded in the immediate preceding quarter. However, the profit before taxation for the current quarter of RM6.493 million is lower by 8.0% than that recorded in the immediate preceding quarter of RM7.055 million. The reason is due to lower products margin recorded on increasing raw materials costs for the quarter quarter under review
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.076 (~30% EPS grow), estimate PE on current price 2.1 = 27.42 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.68/15.63 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.74/7.09 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.56/11.96 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.34 (DPS 0.01)

3A Latest news from The Star


PARKSON / 5657 - 2010 Q2

PARKSON HOLDINGS BERHAD

Listing Date: 28.10.1993
Market: MAIN
Sector: TRADING / SERVICES
Par Value: 1.00
Major Industry: Metal Producers & Products Manufacturers
Sub Industry: Steel Producers - Integrated


Parkson Holdings Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in the operations of the Parkson brand department stores. The businesses are located in China, Malaysia and Vietnam. The Company has a chain of 82 Parkson department stores, with 31 in Malaysia, 46 in China and 5 in Vietnam. The Company’s subsidiaries include East Crest International Limited, Prime Yield Holdings Limited, PRG Corporation Limited and Sea Coral Limited. On October 9, 2008, East Crest International Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, disposed of Jet East Investments Limited. In August 2009, the Company acquired Bond Glory Limited, which is the legal and beneficial owner of the entire equity interest in Choice Link Limited.

OSK TP: 6.55 (02 March 10)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price below 5.2)
Reason: EPS big depend on gain on dilution of retail operations and not sure whether is consistent or not, possibly the price is over value

My opinion based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- The Group posted a favourable set of results with gross sales proceeds rising by approximately 10% to RM4,221.1 million compared to RM3,846.2 million in the preceding year corresponding period. Accordingly, the Group's profit from operations improved by about 10% to RM377.1 million
- The commendable results were attributed to the healthy same store sales growth which was achieved through a combination of continuous merchandise brand refining, more efficient use of available floor space and improved product offerings. The opening of the seven (7) new stores (1 store in Vietnam and 3 stores each in the PRC and Malaysia) during the period under review have also strengthened the Group's network and operations
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.528, estimate PE on current price 5.74 = 10.78(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = (0.513+0.4234)/2 = 0.4682, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.14/10.76 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.9/11.6 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.4234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.6/10.84 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.4234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.1/7.51 (DPS 0.1)


Saturday, March 6, 2010

A&M / 5959 - 2009 Q4

Market Cap : 362804400*0.65 = 235,822,860 (Small)
NTA per share : (452520-20389)/362734= 1.19
P/BV : 0.65/1.19 = 0.5462 (Undervalue)
Forecast P/E now : 0.65/0.0475 = 13.68 (High)
ROE : 2.94% (Low)
DY : -
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.2258+0.202+0.2124+0.1693)/4 = 0.2024 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 426512/112094 = 3.8049 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (50258+53544)/2/(142265/365) = 133 days
My Target Price : Not interested unless EPS and ROW increase
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Profit uncertain, good cash flow, NAVPS improving, revenue growth but cost increased more, low debt
Technical Support Price : 0.6
Risk Rating : HIGH

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- The reduction in the profit before taxation and minority interest for the current financial year ended 31 December 2009 as compared to financial year of the preceding year ended 31 December 2008 was mainly due to the disposal of land in the preceeding financial year ended 31 December 2008
- The lower profit before taxation and minority interest for the current quarter was mainly due to the completion of certain development projects


BSTEAD / 2771 - 2009 Q4

NTA per share : 3.09

My TP: 6.48+0.275=6.76 (PE 10, EPS 0.648, DPS 0.275)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, high dividend, revenue growth

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- The Division achieved an average palm oil price of RM2,170 per MT, as against last year corresponding period's average of RM2,794 per MT. FFB crop totalling 1,106,371 MT was 5% lower than last year. The Heavy Industries Division due to slower progress of work and cost escalation. The hotel operation profit during the period under review was lower due to the start up cost of the recently opened Royale Chulan Hotel which the Group manages. The property development segment profit for the current period was also lower, due to lower corporate land sales. BH Insurance contributed a significantly higher pre-tax profit mainly due to the increase in underwriting and investment income and the reversal of provision for diminution of quoted investments. The Affin Group posted a pre-tax profit of RM497.2 million, a 23% increase over last year as the group’s core operating units were performing well. The group enjoyed increases in net interest and Islamic banking income which helped to offset against some increase in loan loss provision. The Trading Division's pre-tax profit of RM47.3 million was a significant turnaround from last year's loss of RM12.5 million, mainly due to the stronger performance from BHPetrol which had enjoyed a healthy operating surplus and stockholding gains. The Manufacturing Division's pre-tax profit of RM32.1 million was 64% higher, attributable mainly to the better contribution from UAC
- The Plantation Division's profit higher than the preceding quarter attributable largely to the lower estate expenditure. FFB crop fell 1.6% while CPO price averaged RM2,166 (Previous quarter: RM2,296) per MT. The Heavy Industries Division’s profit for the current quarter was 65% of the preceding quarter. The Property Division’s profit for the current quarter was 165% better mainly due to the fair value gains on investment properties. The Finance & Investment Division’s profit of RM65.3 million was 230% higher than last quarter’s profit of RM19.8 million, mainly due to the stronger contribution from BH Insurance while the recent rights issue also enabled the parent company to enjoy some interest savings. The Trading Division’s profit improved by 80% mainly due to the better sales volume and higher stockholding gains from BHPetrol.
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.162*4 = 0.648, estimate PE on current price 3.54 = 5.04 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1241*4 = 0.4964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.89/6.06 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0721*4 = 0.2884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/10.92 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0934*4 = 0.3736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.78/8.94 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1699*4 = 0.6796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/3.97 (DPS 0.3)


OSK / 5053 - 2009 Q4

My TP: 1.8+0.075= 1.88 (PE 8, EPS 0.2248, DPS 0.075)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- My estimate next Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0562*4 = 0.2248
, estimate PE on current price 1.29 = 5.4(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0525*4 = 0.21, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.38/6.9 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0570*4 = 0.228, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.83 (DPS 0.05)
- After 2009 Q1 loss result announced, no estimate
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0240*4 = 0.096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.32/7.86 (DPS 0.075)


Friday, March 5, 2010

ADVENTA / 7191 - 2010 Q1

Market Cap : 514,950,001.50 (12 April 2010)
NTA per share : (194714-3244)/148364=1.2905
P/B : 3.45/1.2905=2.6734
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8195+0.7518+0.7329)/3=0.7681
Liquidity Ratio : 162057/96653=1.6767
Receivables Collection Period : (68338+59839)/2/(282871/365)=82 days

OSK TP: 5.37 (04 March 2010)
My TP: 4.03+0.07 = 4.1 (PE 16, EPS 0.252, DPS 0.07)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue growth

My study based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- Improved revenue reflects some additional capacity coming on stream late in the quarter. The addition of capacity shall continue through out the year
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.063*4 = 0.252, estimate PE on current price 3.48 = 13.53(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.83/18.28 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.2/11.36 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.39/7.77 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.04/8.26 (DPS 0.06)


Thursday, March 4, 2010

HUAAN / 2739 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 0.7
My decison: BUY
Reason: China steel demand increased, expect coke price in uptrend

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- Oversupply of steel in the domestic market and caused downward pressure on the selling prices of metallurgical coke

Lesson learned from previous Q:
- Must always check coke price trend and steel production and demand for coming Q report period, if down then sell, vice versa


Tuesday, March 2, 2010

KNM / 7164 - 2009 Q4

NTA per share : 0.05

OSK TP: 0.9
My decison: Not BUY
Reason: Overvalue, revenue dropped, loss

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- Compare to the previous year, the lower performance in this period is reflective of global economic slowdown and lower utilization of capacity
- The loss being recognised for this quarter is due to global economic slowdown, revaluation of properties, provision for foreseeable losses and higher operating costs
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0081*4 = 0.0324, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0181*4 = 0.0724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0250*4 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.45/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0214*4 = 0.0856, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.7/3.56 (DPS 0.015)