KLCI Stock - TM / 4863 - 2009 Quarter 4

OSK Target Price: 3.03
My Target Price: 2.68+0.23=2.91 (PE 14, EPS 0.1916, DPS 0.23)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=2.9)
Reason: Overvalue, low ROE, revenue and dividend dropped

My study based on 2009 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Compare to preceding year quarter, the Group revenue decreased, mainly attributed to lower revenue from special project, MERS 999. Excluding revenue from MERS 999, the current quarter revenue is only 1.5% lower
- Internet and multimedia revenue registered 2.6% growth arising from growth in broadband customers (excluding Hotspot customers)
- Group profit after tax and minority interests (PATAMI) increased mainly attributed to unrealised exchange gain on translation of foreign currency borrowings
- Compare to preceding quarter, the group revenue increased, mainly driven by higher revenue from data services and other telecommunication related services
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0479*4=0.1916, estimate PE on current price 3.23 = 15.66(DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0505*4 = 0.202, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.54/13.71(DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/13.85 (DPS 0.22)