WCT / 9679 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 3.08 (10 March 2010)
My TP: 2.56+0.1=2.66 (PE 16, EPS 0.16, DPS 0.1)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price <=2.2)
Reason: Overvalue, project delay

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- Higher revenue attributable to the construction activities
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate PE on current price 2.7 = 16.25(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/13.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0535*4 = 0.214, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.07 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/8.48 (DPS 0.095, economy crisis)