AXIATA / 6888 - 2009 Q4

Market Cap : 8445154455*3.75 = 31,669,329,206.25 (Large)
NTA per share : (18184085-8563450)/8445154 = 1.14
P/BV : 3.75/1.14 = 3.2895
Forecast P/E now : 3.75/0.2524 = 14.86 (High)
ROE : 8.75% (Low)
DY : -
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.3528+0.3038+0.4082)/3 = 0.3549 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 3697735/6633770 = 0.5574 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (1559158+1539878)/2/(13105054/365) = 43 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 3.53 (PE 14, EPS 0.2524)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price less than 3.6)
My Comment : Revenue growth average 8% QbQ, weakening of USD against IDR, navps increasing, debt decreased, cash drop 38.82% compared to year 2008
Technical Support Price : 3.7, 3.4
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 4.24 (12 March 2010)

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- QoQ driven by higher subscriber base in all its operating companies from XL Group and Axiata (Bangladesh) Limited (“AxB”) but competition and heavy price cuts in Cambodia market continue to impact revenue growth
- Lower net finance costs as a result of repayment of debt and reduction of overall debt position
- Higher profit was driven mainly by improved contribution from Celcom Group, XL Group, AxB and Dialog Group, associate and joint venture companies and foreign exchange gain as a result of weakening of USD against IDR
- YoY improved revenue performance was primarily attributed to higher contribution from Celcom Group, XL Group and AxB resulted from increasing trend in subscriber base and higher broadband contribution
- Higher net finance costs as a result of an increase in its debt position arising mainly from external borrowings of XL Group for Celcom Group. XL Group and Celcom Group
- Improved profit contribution from associate and joint venture companies from MobileOne Ltd and Idea
- The Group’s other operating cost increased mainly resulted from increase in content provider charges, higher network related cost and increased in Universal Service Provision charges. Foreign exchange gain has reduced as a result of relatively stable USD exchange rate against local currency of key Opcos
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.631(average recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.2524+(0.05*0.2524) = 0.265(5% grow from 0.2524), estimate PE on current price 3.75 = 14.86
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0595*4 = 0.238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12.61
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0579*4 = 0.2316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.12/12.52

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