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Tuesday, August 31, 2010

KLCI Stock - CIMB / 1023 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 7331529820*7.8 = 57,185,932,596 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (20686345-7646241-1603832)/7118009 = 1.61
P/BV : 7.8/1.61 = 4.8447
Forecast P/E now : (7.8-0.14)/0.55 = 13.93 (Moderate)
ROE : 14.47% (Moderate)
DY : 0.14/7.8*100 = 1.79% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover : Not applicable
Liquidity Ratio : Not applicable
Receivables Collection Period : Not applicable
My Target Price : 8.36+0.14 = 8.5 (PE 15.2, EPS 0.55, DPS 0.14)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, cash decreasing, navps increasing, increasing regional market, BLR increased, economic remain good
Technical Support Price : 7.3
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 8.7 (27 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- The Group 1H10 revenues increased by 14.9% Y-o-Y while PBT was 34.8% higher

- For 1H10, the Group’s Malaysian consumer bank PBT grew 23.5% Y-o-Y from a combination of sustained improvements in Retail Banking and Credit Cards as well as better recoveries at Group Special Assets Management(“GSAM”). PBT at Treasury & Investments declined 25.3% Y-o-Y mainly due to lower net gains from investments during the period. Corporate & Investment Banking (“CIB”) PBT was higher by 72.9% Y-o-Y as regional capital markets were significantly better than 1H09

- CIMB Niaga’s contribution surged 171.1% Y-o-Y previously owing to continued operational improvements as well as very favourable operating conditions. CIMB Thai made a RM26 million PBT contribution in 1H10 compared to a RM29 million loss in 1H09. Asset Management and Insurance PBT
was 55.4% lower Y-o-Y largely due to the non recurrence of gains on change in accounting standards at CIMB Aviva last year

- CIMB Niaga was again the largest contributor to 1H10 Group PBT with 36% versus 18% in 1H09. The Malaysian Consumer Bank’s contribution to Group PBT was slightly lower at 14% compared to 15% in 1H09, while Treasury and Investments fell to 26%. Contribution from CIB rebounded to 21% from 17% previously. Group Asset Management (“GAM”) and Insurance fell to 2% from 5% last year. CIMB Thai’s contribution was 1% of Group PBT compared to a negative in 1H09

- Total non-Malaysian PBT jumped to an all-time high of 44% in 1H10 from 20% in 1H09 due to the surge in contribution from Indonesia as well as the return to profitability of the Group's Thai and Singapore operations

- The Group’s total gross loans expanded 16.1% Y-o-Y, underpinned by the 30.7% expansion (in RM terms) of CIMB Niaga’s gross loans as well as the 15.2% growth in Malaysian consumer loans. Mortgages, credit cards and the Group’s micro credit lending grew by 22.9%, 38.3% and 38.7% respectively Y-o-Y. Hire purchase loans are growing again, by 5.7% Y-o-Y but business banking loans continued to decline by 4.5% Y-o-Y. Corporate loans improved 8.7% Y-o-Y. Meanwhile, the Group's net interest margins continued to improve as well

- Total Group's deposits grew by 18.1%, driven by a 20.5% surge in CIMB Bank's retail current account balances as the Group's new Singapore retail franchise continued its excellent start. In 2Q10 CIMB Bank Malaysia registered more new customers than ever before indicating that the bank's focus on growing its deposit base is gaining momentum

- The total loan impairment (under FRS139 policies) for the Group was 52.6% Y-o-Y, the numbers are not directly comparable due to differing accounting treatments. The Group’s total annualized credit charge was 0.30%, much lower than the 0.60% full year target. The Group’s gross impaired loans ratio was 7.2% for 1H10 down from 7.5% three months ago, with an impairment allowance coverage of 78.4%. The Group’s cost to income ratio rose slightly to 54.6% compared to 53.7% in 1H09

- The Group’s 2Q10 revenues was 6.2% higher versus 1Q10, giving rise to a 6.1% increase in Q-o-Q
net profits

- The Group’s Malaysian Consumer Banking division PBT improved 52.8% Q-o-Q largely due to improved recoveries at GSAM. Excluding these legacy assets, the consumer “good bank” earnings were 5.9% higher. Corporate and Investment Banking expanded 14.7% as the capital market momentum continued but Treasury and Investments fell 18.3% Q-o-Q. CIMB Niaga’s PBT contribution was 4.5% lower Q-o-Q due to the higher gain from the ex-Lippo Bank bond sale in 1Q10. GAM and Insurance PBT contributions rose 262.5% to RM28 million. CIMB Thai’s PBT contribution jumped by 233.3% Q-o-Q to RM20 million versus RM6 million in 1Q10

- CIMB Niaga reported a 62.2% Y-o-Y growth with a 1H10. The stronger performance was attributed to the strong loans growth and improved non-performing loan (“NPL”) ratios. Profits from sale of AFS bonds by CIMB Niaga are not recognised in CIMB Niaga itself but at Group consolidated accounts. On a sequential basis, the 2Q10 net profit was 15.5% higher than 1Q10 primarily due to stronger revenue and lower operating expenses

- Bank CIMB Niaga’s gross loans grew 25.6% Y-o-Y in 1H10 driven by the corporate and auto loans segments. Gross NPL was lower at 2.7% as at end-June 2010 compared to 3.1% as end-March 2010 and unchanged versus the corresponding period last year. CIMB Niaga continues to retain the 2nd lowest position in net NPL ratios amongst Indonesian banks while loan loss coverage was increased to 140.0% as at end-1H10 compared to 96.3% as at end-1H09

- CIMB Thai announced a 1H10 net profit of THB714 million compared to a THB502 million loss in 1H09. This had included a THB508 million gain from the sale of the Sathorn building and BT Asset Management. Excluding this one-off gain, CIMB Thai would have recorded a 1H10 net profit of THB206 million. For the 6-month period, CIMB Thai chalked revenue of THB3.607 billion, up 5.6% Y-o-Y. As a result of GAAP adjustments, CIMB Thai’s contribution to the Group’s 1H10 earnings was RM26 million, compared to a negative RM29 million in 1H09

- CIMB Islamic’s Y-o-Y PBT jumped 144.6% as Syariah-compliant banking products continue to gain ground. CIMB Islamic’s gross financing assets grew 141.4% Y-o-Y, accounting for 14.3% of total Group loans. Total deposits grew by 71.9% Y-o-Y

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.125*4*1.1 = 0.55, estimate PE on current price 7.8 = 13.93(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2366*4*1.1 = 1.041(10% increase quarter-by-quarter), after bonus estimate eps = 1.041/2 = 0.5205, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.19/12.46 (DPS 0.185/2 = 0.0925)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2268*4*1.1 = 0.9979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.67/12.5 (DPS 0.185)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2058*4*1.1 = 0.9055, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.72/13.04 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1879*4*1.1 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.59/11.73 (DPS 0.25)

CIMB latest news (English)


Sunday, August 29, 2010

KLCI Stock - GENTING / 3182 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 3705627770*9.04 = 33,498,875,040.80 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (13864685-2519711)/3704714 = 3.06
P/BV : 9.04/3.06 = 2.9542
Forecast P/E now : (9.04-0.075)/0.794 = 11.29 (Low)
ROE : 6.24% (Low)
DY : 0.075/9.04*100 = 0.83% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.2606+0.2483+0.2857)/3 = 0.2649 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 19243959/4836233 = 3.9791 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (1459273+967157)/2/(11920495/365) = 37 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 12.7+0.08 = 12.78 (PE 16, EPS 0.794, DPS 0.075)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit largely increased, good cash flow, above moderate debt, navps increased, Genting Singapore expect to contribute better profit
Technical Support Price : 8.6
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 11.7 (27 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The Group registered revenue and profit increased mainly from the Leisure & Hospitality Division with the commencement of operations of Resorts World Sentosa (“RWS”) in Singapore. Revenue from Resorts World Genting increased mainly due to better luck factor in the premium players business. UK casino operations’ revenue decreased, mainly affected by the weaker Sterling Pound. The underlying revenue in Sterling Pound has improved contributed by higher business volume (improved luck factor)

- Increased revenue and profit from the Plantation Division as compared to the preceding year corresponding period was due to higher palm products prices as well as increased FFB production. However, compared to preceding quarter, the division recorded lower profit mainly due to higher
manuring cost arising from increased fertiliser application

- Lower revenue and profit from the Power Division was due to lower generation of electricity by the Meizhou Wan power plant and Kuala Langat power plants

- Despite the higher average oil prices, revenue from the Oil & Gas Division decreased as compared to the preceding year corresponding period due to the lower share of entitlement in China. Higher expenses and lower revenue from the Oil & Gas Division contributed to the Division’s lower profit. However, compared to preceding quarter, the division generated higher revenue and profit arose from higher average oil prices and higher share of entitlement in China

- The share of results in jointly controlled entities and associates increased in the current quarter as the previous year’s corresponding quarter’s share of results had been impacted by the share of loss of a jointly controlled entity in GENS as a result of a reduction in property values of a property owned by this jointly controlled entity in London, UK. Beside that, the increased also due to the new power plant in Andhra Pradesh, India

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1985*4 = 0.794, estimate PE on current price 9.04 = 11.29(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2813*1.15 = 0.3235(15% increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.54/2 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0661*4 = 0.2644, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.77/23.18 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0999*4 = 0.3996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/15.62 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 33.23/27.64 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0574*4 = 0.2296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.88/23 (DPS 0.07)

GENTING latest news (English)


Saturday, August 28, 2010

KLCI Stock - SUPERMX / 7106 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 339463040*5.22 = 1,771,997,068.80 (Large)
NTA per share : (652009-28716)/339463 = 1.84
P/BV : 5.22/1.84 = 2.837
Forecast P/E now : (5.22-0.135)/0.5674 = 8.96 (Low)
ROE : 30.89% (High)
DY : 0.135/5.22*100 = 2.59% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8705+0.9358+0.7709)/3 = 0.8591 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 445887/197145 = 2.2617 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (245227+161510)/2/(889456/365) = 83 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 6.81+0.14 = 6.95 (PE 12, EPS 0.5674, DPS 0.135)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue increasing compared to previous year corresponding period but not exceed max revenue on 2009 Q3, debt decreasing, navps decreased due to bonus issue, USD remained weak, latex price for Julai & August lower than April to Jun
Technical Support Price : 5
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 9.11 (27 Aug 2010)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- Group revenue rose by 24.6% on the back of strong global demand for rubber gloves as well as higher selling prices

- However, despite a challenging operating environment, the Group did well to record
profitability growth over the corresponding quarter a year ago. Profit before tax and profit
after tax rose by 55.8% and 77.9% respectively. The improvement in profitability is attributed to the revenue growth as well as cost savings from higher efficiency and productivity from improved processes and refurbished lines

- Group revenue is higher compared to the preceding quarter by 6.4%. The increase is mainly attributed to increased capacity from its newest plant following the commissioning of new lines during the current quarter

- However, latex prices rose to new historical highs during this current quarter and coupled with the strengthening Ringgit, they gave rise to some margin erosion. Profit before tax and profit after tax fell by of 10.0% and 10.9% respectively

- Global demand and consumption has been growing at between 8 to 10% per annum and this organic growth rate is expected to continue going forward. The industry would see spikes in demand with high demand retention should more countries implement regulations on rubber glove use (e.g. Brazil in 2009) and in the event of disease outbreaks (e.g. H1N1 in 2009)

- The passing into law of the US Healthcare Reform Bill is also expected to take consumption of rubber gloves up a notch. The US is already the largest consumer of rubber gloves, accounting for about 40% of global consumption, and this is expected to grow upon implementation. China is another large populous country which has recently unveiled its healthcare reform plans and once implemented, rubber glove consumption would be brought to another level altogether

- The Company has embarked on Phase No. 1 of the Glove City Project in March 2010 with the commencement of the groundbreaking works. The first factory would be operational by second half of 2011

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1351*4*1.05 = 0.5674, estimate PE on current price 5.22 = 8.96(DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6576+0.0253 = 0.6829, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.38/8.77 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1644*4 = 0.6576, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.16/8.24 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1514*4 = 0.6056, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/5.3 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0972*4 = 0.3888, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.74/5.14 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0743*4 = 0.2972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.01 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2499, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.67/3.07 (DPS 0.0325)

SUPERMX Latest news (English)

Malaysia Daily Latexx Price

USD/MYR Chart


Friday, August 27, 2010

KLCI Stock - PERISAI / 0047 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 662400000*0.51 = 337,824,000 (Small)
NTA per share : (245100-76127)/662000 = 0.26
P/BV : 0.51/0.26 = 1.9615
Forecast P/E now : 0.51/0.0313 = 16.29 (High)
ROE : 4.84% (Low)
DY : Not applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.1524+0.2087+0.3594)/3 = 0.2402 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 76533/87387 = 0.8758 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (32728+32832)/2/(71518/365) = 167 days (Bad)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreased and remain low, bad cash flow, high debt but decreased some, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 0.5
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):

- For the financial period ended 30 June 2010, the Group generated total revenue from continuing operations of RM37.30 million and profit attributable to equity holders of the parent of RM11.95 million. This compares to revenue from continuing operations of RM66.96 million and profit attributable to the equity holders of the parent RM33.15 million for the preceding corresponding financial period ended 30 June 2009

- The decrease in revenue and profit attributable to equity holders of the parent for the financial period ended 30 June 2010 was mainly due to the expiration of the Saturation Diving System contract and the revision of charter rates for the Derrick Lay Barge (“DLB”) from USD95,000 per day for 240 days per annum to a yearly fixed monthly rate of USD1,900,000 per month and USD20,000 for each working day for the 271st day and beyond in the calendar year

- For the financial quarter ended 30 June 2010, the Group generated total revenue from continuing operations of RM18.30 million and profit attributable to equity holders of the parent of RM5.77 million. This compares to revenue from continuing operations of RM33.40 million and profit attributable to the equity holders of the parent RM17.12 million for the preceding corresponding financial quarter ended 30 June 2009

- The decrease in revenue and profit attributable to equity holders of the parent for the financial quarter and period ended 30 June 2010 was mainly due to reasons as mentioned above

- For the financial quarter ended 30 June 2010, the Group recorded a PBT from continuing operations of approximately RM5.79 million as compared to a profit before taxation of RM6.23 million for the preceding financial quarter ended 31 March 2010

- The PBT from continuing operations in the current quarter was consistent with the preceding quarter due to the ongoing charter of the DLB

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0087*4*0.9 = 0.0313 (10% drop), estimate PE on current price 0.51 = 16.29
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0093*4*0.9 = 0.0335 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.76/14.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0589*0.85 = 0.0501, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.77/8.38
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0125*4 = 0.05, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12/9.4

PERISAI latest news (English)


KLCI Stock - TSH / 9059 - 2010 Quarter 2

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 414530263*1.93 = 800,043,407.59 (Medium)
NTA per share : (739856-49513)/410908 = 1.68
P/BV : 1.93/1.68 = 1.1488
Forecast P/E now : (1.93-0.05)/0.132 = 14.24 (High)
ROE : 8.43% (Low)
DY : 0.05/1.93*100 = 2.59% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.5268+0.6329+0.7803)/3 = 0.6467 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 424188/458228 = 0.9257 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (131510+152842)/2/(943917/365) = 54 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, strong cash, high debt and increased, navps increasing, monthly production remain low, palm oil land increased, USD and EUR against MYR lower than preceding quarter
Technical Support Price : 1.8
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- For the current quarter, the Group recorded a decrease of 12.8% in revenue as compared to the previous corresponding quarter

- The Group posted a 40.8% lower profit before taxation as compared to the previous corresponding quarter

- As the bulk of the finished products from our Wood Products segment are exported to Europe and USA, the results were affected by the strengthening of the Ringgit Malaysia against the foreign currencies. The Cocoa Manufacturing and Trading segment continues to be affected by low demand and high prices. Nevertheless, the Palm Bio-Integration business segment’s performance has improved as a result of higher CPO price

- The Group’s revenue for the quarter under review was 13.7% lower than the immediate preceding quarter. The Group posted a 1.1% lower profit before taxation as compared to the immediate preceding quarter. The result under Palm and Bio-Integration segment was slightly unfavourable owing to the seasonality effects. The Wood Products segment’s performance is further affected by the drop in selling prices and profit margin due to the further strengthening of the Ringgit Malaysia against the USD and Euro. However, performance of Cocoa Manufacturing and Trading segment continue to show improvement as cocoa prices stabilise at the back of the recovery of the global economy

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.033*4 = 0.132, estimate PE on current price 1.93 = 14.24(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1938*0.95 = 0.1841, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.59/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1802*1.1 = 0.1982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.78 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0568*4*0.95 = 0.2158, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/7.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.055*4*0.8 = 0.176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.97/8.35 (DPS 0.05)

TSH latest news (English)


KLCI Stock - SUNWAY / 4308 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 602046705*1.53 = 920,707,954.65 (Medium)
NTA per share : (846452-127842)/620493 = 1.16
P/BV : 1.53/1.16 = 1.4037
Forecast P/E now : (1.53-0.02)/0.1972 = 5.92 (Low)
ROE : 14.41% (Moderate)
DY : 0.02/1.53*100 = 1.31% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.8252+0.7728+0.9025+0.9279)/4 = 0.8571 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 1356955/1012873 = 1.3397 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (707659+688821)/2/(1923906/365) = 132 days (Slightly long)
My Target Price : 1.97+0.02 = 1.99 (PE 10, EPS 0.1972, DPS 0.02)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue slightly increased but Group's segments result decreased, jointly controlled entities from property development largely improved, good cash flow, high debt but decreasing, navps increased, construction job increasing
Technical Support Price : 1.5, 1.4
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 2.52 (25 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The Group recorded revenue of RM509.2 million and profit before taxation of RM59.2 million,
which include RM5.7 million non-operating income, during the quarter under review

- The Group’s operating performance continued to be contributed by the construction, property
development and trading and manufacturing divisions

- The Group performed better during the current quarter with 1.5% higher revenue as compared to the revenue in the immediate preceding quarter. The Group’s profit before taxation also grew by 17% from the last preceding quarter

- Without incorporating the non-operating income mentioned in above as well as excluding the gains arising from the adoption of FRS 139, the current quarter’s adjusted profit before taxation was higher than the previous quarter’s by 18%

- The quarter-on-quarter improvement in operating results were as a result of the recognition of profit from the Group’s second property development project in Singapore, as well as stronger margins from the trading division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.058*0.85*4 = 0.1972(15% deduction adjustment due to segments result 20% lower than preceding quarter), estimate PE on current price 1.57 = 7.86(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.058(exclude FRS 139)*4*1.1 = 0.2552(10% QbQ improvement adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.54/5.09 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q6 result announced = 0.041*4*1.1 = 0.1804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.48/7.1 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q5 result announced = 0.0318*4 = 0.1272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.95/8.88 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0352*4*1.1 = 0.1549, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.36/8.26 (DPS 0.03)

SUNWAY latest news (English)


KLCI Stock - MITRA / 9571 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 127989267*1.01 = 129,269,159.67 (Small)
NTA per share : (281198-3145)/120199 = 2.31
P/BV : 1.01/2.31 = 0.4372
Forecast P/E now : (1.01-0.1)/0.28 = 3.25 (Low)
ROE : 22.01% (High)
DY : 0.1/1.01*100 = 9.9% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.7994+0.4063+0.5911)/3 = 0.5989 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 304415/136766 = 2.2258 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (91937+82264)/2/(394913/365) = 80 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.24+0.1 = 2.34 (PE 8, EPS 0.28, DPS 0.1)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue increased, also higher than preceding year preceding quarter, profit same with revenue, free cash flow increasing, net cash flow increased, second consecutive quarter profit margin increasing, better liquidity ratio at moderate level now, better gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all collection period are acceptable from historical comparison
Technical Support Price : 1, 0.945
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- For this current quarter under review, the Group's revenue has increased by 68% as compared to a revenue in the preceding year corresponding quarter. The increase in revenue is mainly derived from Group's construction and property development divisions

- The Group generated higher revenue and profit before tax for the current quarter under review as compared to the preceding quarter due to higher revenue and profit recognition from Group's construction and property development divisions

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2*0.7*2 = 0.28, estimate PE on current price 1.01 = 3.25(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.12(average of 0.03 per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.5/7.5 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.08(average of 0.02 per quarter if no new big project secure for construction division), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.13/7.63 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.88/6.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.38

MITRA latest news (English)


Thursday, August 26, 2010

KLCI Stock - WCT / 9679 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 783493970*2.82 = 2,209,452,995.40 (Large)
NTA per share : 1236476/793927 = 1.56
P/BV : 2.82/1.56 = 1.8077
Forecast P/E now : (2.82-0.1)/0.1873 = 14.52 (Moderate)
ROE : 9.11% (Low)
DY : 0.1/2.82*100 = 3.55% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8051+0.8561+0.8809)/3 = 0.8474 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 2303491/1896881 = 1.2144 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (1174183+1873761)/2/(3433377/365) = 162 days
My Target Price : 3+0.1 = 3.1 (PE 16, EPS 0.1873, DPS 0.1)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and PBT increased from preceding quarter, good cash flow, high debt and increased, navps increased, more job to be secure
Technical Support Price : 2.8
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 2.89 (20 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- The Group recorded 56.4% and 22.5% decrease of revenue and PBT respectively as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter

- The Group recorded 28.4% and 6.9% increase of revenue and PBT respectively as compared to the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1703*1.1 = 0.1873, estimate PE on current price 2.82 = 14.52(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0441*4*0.9 = 0.1588, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.51/14.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.88/15.13 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/13.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0535*4 = 0.214, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.07 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/8.48 (DPS 0.095, economy crisis)

WCT latest news (English)

WCT latest news (Chinese)


Wednesday, August 25, 2010

KLCI Stock - KGB / 0151 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 74710000*0.765 = 57,153,150 (Very Small)
NTA per share : (36997-199)/74710 = 0.49
P/BV : 0.765/0.49 = 1.5612
Forecast P/E now : (0.765-0.03)/0.95 = 7.74 (High)
ROE : 23.34% (High)
DY : 0.03/0.765*100 = 3.92% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(1 year) : 1.1014 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 53239/21692 = 2.4543 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (25942+21317)/2/(67100/365) = 128 days
My Target Price : 0.76+0.03 = 0.79 (PE 8, EPS 0.95, DPS 0.03)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price supported at 0.66
My Comment : Revenue increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, no free cash flow, negative net cash flow, strong cash, profit margin recover to above 15%, liquidity ratio increased at moderate level now, gearing ratio decreased at moderate level now, all accounting period is normal compared to historical quarter
Technical Support Price : 0.665
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- The Group recorded a 8% lower revenue as compared to previous corresponding quarter in 2009 mainly due to lower revenue contribution from the Malaysia operations. Despite of lower in revenue, the current quarter has achieved a higher Gross Profit margin and PBT margin compared to the previous corresponding quarter due to the contributions of projects with higher margins

- The Group has recorded higher revenue and profit as compared to the preceding quarter, due to after the festive seasons during the first quarter

- The Group had successfully penetrated into Light Emitting Diode ("LED") industry. On 19 May 2010, KGB was awarded its first LED project in Mainland China. On 28 July 2010, KGB had secured another LED project in Malaysia

- KGB had successfully established a contractual relationship with largest wafer fabrication foundry in Mainland China - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation ("SMIC")

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.095, estimate PE on current price 0.765 = 7.74(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.03*3+0.01 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/6.6 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.7/6.65 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/5.8

KGB latest news (English)


KLCI Stock - TCHONG / 4405 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 672000000*4.85 = 3,259,200,000 (Large)
NTA per share : 1618249/652819 = 2.49
P/BV : 4.85/2.49 = 1.9478
Forecast P/E now : (4.85-0.12)/0.3932 = 12.03 (Moderate)
ROE : 12.98% (Moderate)
DY : 0.12/4.85*100 = 2.47% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.3174+1.5193+1.279)/3 = 1.3719 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 1531547/438932 = 3.4893 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (419359+282178)/2/(3264249/365) = 39 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 5.78+0.12 = 5.9 (PE 14, EPS 0.4129, DPS 0.12)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, good cash flow, moderate debt, navps increasing, BLR increased, strong Ringgit, expanded business to regional market
Technical Support Price : 4.2
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 6.4 (19 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The current interim results reflects a durable recovery in TIV (total industry volume) but with a more pronounced 29.3% increase in revenue and doubling in operating and pre-tax profits compared to the same period in 2009. Volumes accompanied by pricing flexibility through localisation, to a large extent impacted the 1H more than a stronger Ringgit. Despite higher tax provision, 1H 2010 is above 1H 2008, our previous record year, in terms of revenue and profit

- Q2 2010 is our second consecutive increase in sales and pre-tax profits after volumes stabilized and bottomed in Q4 2009. Revenue at RM927.9 million for the three months ended is approaching the billion ringgit mark achieved during the previous peak in Q3 2008

- Unlike in Q1 2010, the earlier RM6.0 million marked to market paper loss on forward contracts for hedging purposes reversed into a RM11.4 million gain in Q2 2010 under the same measure in
accordance with fair value accounting for financial instruments under FRS 139

- In spite of higher business activity, net gearing remains negligible and working capital is under control. Productivity gains as well as creditworthiness to structure finance our receivables had enabled the Company to meet higher demand without using up more capital. But as the business scale of Tan Chong continues to develop in the next few years, its capital requirements may need to increase correspondingly

- Our business is still subject to market volatility. July car sales had softened but August is seeing rush orders before Hari Raya holidays in September. October-November may be busier and December is usually quiet again

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0983*4 = 0.3932, estimate PE on current price 4.85 = 12.03(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0991*4 = 0.3964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.92/9.51 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0639*4 = 0.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/10.92 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced =0.0527*4 = 0.2108, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/10.44 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0528*4 = 0.2112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.31/8.19 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0626*4 = 0.2504, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.35/5.39 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0425*4 = 0.17, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.12/6.12 (DPS 0.1)

TCHONG latest news (English)

TCHONG latest news (Chinese)

USD/MYR Chart


Tuesday, August 24, 2010

KLCI Stock - YTLPOWR / 6742 - 2010 Quarter 4

YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BERHAD

Listing Date: 23.05.1997
IPO Price: 2.700
Market: MAIN
Sector: INFRASTRUCTURE
Par Value: 0.50
Major Industry: Utilities
Sub Industry: Electric Power Companies
Market Cap : 7249198795*2.3 = 16,673,157,228.50 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (7213109-6148899)/7679041 = 0.14
P/BV : 2.3/0.14 = 16.43
Forecast P/E now : (2.3-0.15)/0.1889 = 11.38 (Moderate)
ROE : 5.95% (Low)
DY : 0.15/2.3*100 = 6.52% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.3962+0.1757+0.1525+0.1695)/4 = 0.2235 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 10020640/4930268 = 2.0325 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (2007664+2409669)/2/(13442945/365) = 59 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.46+0.15 = 2.61 (PE 13, EPS 0.1889, DPS 0.15)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, good cash flow, high debt but slightly decreasing, navps increased, consolidated with PowerSeraya increased more stable profit, going to launch WiMAX
Technical Support Price : 2.2
Risk Rating : LOW


YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BERHAD is an investment holding company that provides administrative and technical support services to its subsidiaries. The Company operates in three business segments: investment holding, power generation and sale of electricity and sales of water and disposal of waste water. Its subsidiaries are engaged in the provision of wire line and wireless broadband access and other related services; developing, constructing, completing, maintaining and operating power plants, and sale of electricity. On June 18, 2009, the Company acquired a 60% interest in YTL Communications Sdn Bhd. They provide operating energy facilities and undertake oil trading activities and provide wire line and wireless broadband access respectively. In September 2009, the Company incorporated YTL DCS Pte Ltd. On February 18, 2010, the Company incorporated YTL Utilities Finance 5 Limited (YTLUF5) and YTL Communications International Limited.

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):

- Group revenue was 32.3% increase fir the current quarter ended 30 June 2010 as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter ended 30 June 2009. The Group profit before taxation for the current quarter ended 30 June 2010 was 15.5% higher as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter ended 30 June 2009

- The increase was principally due to the consolidation of the financial results of PowerSeraya, a wholly owned subsidiary which was acquired on 6 March 2009. The Group net profit after taxation for the current quarter was recorded an increase of RM399.2 million as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter attributable to a one-off deferred tax charge in the preceding corresponding quarter

- The increase in Group profit before taxation and Group profit after taxation as compared to the preceding quarter were principally due to better performance in multi utilities business (merchant) segment of the Group

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1717*1.1 = 0.1889, estimate PE on current price 2.3 = 11.38(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0404*4 = 0.1616, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/12.56 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0356*4 = 0.1424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.1/14.04 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0328*4 = 0.1312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.23/15.02 (DPS 0.15)
- No Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0335*4 = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/14.48 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.6/12.72 (DPS 0.15)

YTLPOWR latest news from The Edge (English)

YTLPOWR latest news from Sin Chew (Chinese)

a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharemarketdateprof_mpedenavpsvat
2010-08-1920104N/AN/A0.018750.05950.1680375342313442945627896169403942903112121200.05590.17173392945026716341072131092580102-1386825226694590675111932771419971732672276790417059522175850032010-06-300.167314.50763.70390.940.3167
2010-05-27201032.312.180.03750.04390.12333351098968952240657411408723055598578180.04040.11343288098825923993069569951671687-617694-34835859067511053993705635661238675645347564534165663292010-03-310.1213-3.72630.920.2485
2010-02-25201022.32.150.03750.03480.0669313470263384243497646739632555524919240.03560.07043568835428339407073489471218131-462693130805959067517554382063497797024871728136987557154932762009-12-310.1116-3.85631.020.2694
2009-11-19201012.282.120.03750.03730.0373320372232037223241993241992363722363720.03280.0328341172652777759606339669702790-296175-1264165906751406615280199618695072049787204978158509512009-09-300.1012-4.38160.880.2713
2009-08-20200942.252.10.018750.00560.1060283678460933945484031386872344386466050.00480.099434689180285871301266102050825755-822076439258439375917-7395009-3469166590675171242426505311151033932009-06-300.193323.3584.68480.860.9372
2009-05-21200932.222.090.03750.03870.1078135060932566103129288431122213766168100.03350.0965321621002644168605720414630069-839600338978689375916-7765934-3868066550785066136136391813138224512009-03-310.2317-4.62230.860.2926
2009-02-19200922.11.850.03750.03730.068685670119060012843865301842150573954340.03340.0628245655621880158405763978253314-1150051-3434549375916-896737-1240191813572564420296296719119821732008-12-310.332-3.26190.890.2438
2008-11-20200911.991.70.0450.02770.0277104930010493002457982457981803771803770.02900.0290280365262152083706515689245440-216663456791937591628777485568986148462170396217039106933072008-09-300.2342-3.30291.050.2662
2008-08-19200841.91.620.03750.04580.164311405404242518380925139866129300510518060.04290.15672782687621426481064003951052065-110718734178156013224-551223362693937591768241586712227116010682008-06-300.33411.02973.34770.940.2308
2008-05-22200832.221.680.03750.04550.12431060450310197835946010177362778217588010.04580.1294252644361915795106106485934298-791080144940660132241432181592624760584860660445863995130419942008-03-310.339-3.13731.010.2271
2008-02-22200822.672.090.03750.03880.0771100320520415283370246582762424314809800.04120.0819253263071908537706240930759863-425011127086260132243348521605714761893858906165872772147265402007-12-310.3359-3.05811.060.2807
2007-11-22200812.872.45-0.03760.0376103832310383233212523212522385492385490.04060.0406257626251941273706349888477214-138722137757660132243384921716068772929258773705877370149872932007-09-300.3094-3.05721.080.2574
2007-08-22200742.562.380.050.07110.195211674964068008344160129870142906311775930.07290.22092400289017969819060330711307082-39868742860646762239083951337001601322458890045330887135447092007-06-300.294811.5022.97861.02-
2007-05-2420073N/AN/A0.03750.05160.126296457829005123819069545413057187485300.05650.14132464307318712874059301991003069-177505145615946762238255642281723695794654079995297452125465572007-03-310.3959-3.15551.10.1995
2007-02-0820072N/AN/A0.03750.03550.070797660119359342867105726352222324428120.04220.0844241102011784589806264303704175-222462101054646762234817131492259616848252661615246588109009532006-12-310.2936-2.84881.190.2249
2006-11-2320071N/AN/A-0.03680.03689593339593332859252859252205802205800.04240.0424238175701781669306000877471827-12678496949946762333450431314542599077552026785202678118100792006-09-300.298-2.9691.150.2285

yearqrtDevelopment Expenditure (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Bonds (L-0)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Long term payables (L-0)Other long-term provisions (L-0)Bonds (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Payables and accruals (L-1)Provision for liabilities (L-1)Provision for taxation (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20104-6148899992912-69511363608159490255925373715425930414839320076647740168192194263454311036928-17630881347015917925932235670820660147638-
20103-6176148937968-74180365019154245176203966388647124544808820740887753511190837255324910480044617019747111080981232888-22705173653894670-
20102-64332461024553-75908568978167083309104280029697126914779318396678386866203443276478711808336826225212515135651207865-201168837730144740-
20101-6475481982778-7553927076916830480861166236911745259474911886588929945519673126789471033181483642480657174342097226-200178236699161079-
20094-6408936977005-6544497118217337304578115906751818872472012409669930591319825727966811108455093202531457206651745220-231259439118121667126
20093123766935862951709-64988129441527954861739554900478359246922188852393101071750442077744106026079344232715-2042392-181768863130110915-
2009221930441333920625-629688302012291742-8219145138070465941853415815415710028817962004424707813421882814992251659563-8456991415280631-
2009191574413331016151-699293309514679246-99736051502004622710182199429948126572213799444374451012931257919290121908389-11172611936092148-
20084-441333929872-711626317115089793-94237601526664587210287839649749133917219939338785511061431535220141822017066-106396920546123142-
2008320853441333864974-669589324614532863-762194815207045523912037939832913226420560434141187103703192511250001677069-113819719651140590-
2008211931441333877198-664851332214622578-763759014885345182873469976169513895921335093624002117563388571250001679148-111577921606135066-
200815856441333852424-683767339714985055-7772711156171448508170611029275114608522078853729142123073850001250001326114-10748762306690511-
20074-441333863140-668284347314882278-60298251608504450790920092554141473632308389376656512308382853125000908013-9866282802349263-
2007314622441333828325300663157-14521939-70034591559554415896982591521491460782403470440858319790374016125000919062-10780172955957150-
2007210682441333844030300881677-14560198-62357111426204381394983782806581493212415131444877116603379861875000194152-9806423417571584-
200713583441333829710-852551-14448323-6058043159534434609810338356353149637239016944701231656942186287475494187-9358493436872822-

yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther income/expensesAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesAfter tax effect
201043753423-198865-2930076-18143487461-166595065117-
201033351098-101015-2705350-19888317375-1110570494863905
201023134702-94212-2592776-21401427440-689700581675215
201013203722-87953-2634463-24196443848-105967126537485275
200942836784-513977-2065492-23961040724-8600212573574642
200931350609-91552-819773-21527532112-126506-91761-
20092856701-69329-403023-19426729557-48060-43478-
200911049300-65421-580284-228307-27799--32888-
200841140540-87920-502954-23073531168-122545-5309412357
200831060450-81639-567460-19047755663-52471-53523232
200821003205-94593-545216-18547760695-50779-57707-3111
200811038323-82703-555427-189136-21555--455653482
20074116749684903-440966-21837938833-247429-426611944
20073964578-76188-542313-191848155302-52156-48343-
20072976601-64478-532113-16135611632-57985-49931-
20071959333-65345-498127-1681019704-61083-44199-






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Monday, August 23, 2010

KLCI Stock - MAYBANK / 1155 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 7077982768*8.13 = 57,543,999,903.84 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (27877176-4480714)/7077983 = 3.31
P/BV : 8.13/3.31 = 2.4562
Forecast P/E now : (8.13-0.55)/0.5933 = 12.78 (Moderate)
ROE : 13.32% (Moderate)
DY : 0.55/8.13*100 = 6.77% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : Not applicable
Liquidity Ratio : Not applicable
Receivables Collection Period : Not applicable
My Target Price : 8.9+0.55 = 9.45 (PE 15, EPS 0.5933, DPS 0.55)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit still high but slow down, good cash flow, navps increased, better economic in Malaysia, Indonesia & Singapore, strong Ringgit, higher BLR, expect all business segment to be grow
Technical Support Price : 7.7
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 8.5 (14 May 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-

- The Group posted a 451.9% significant increase in profit attributable to equity holders for the financial year ended 30 June 2010. For the fourth quarter ended 30 June 2010, the Group posted a 181.6% significant increase in profit attributable to equity holders

- The Group’s net interest income for the financial year ended 30 June 2010 increased by 14.4%. The increase in net interest income is mainly due to the full year's contribution from PT Bank Internasional Indonesia Tbk (BII), a 97.5% subsidiary acquired on 30 September 2008, and lower interest expense in Malaysian and Singapore banking operations arising from reduction in OPR in early 2009. Income from Islamic Banking operations for the financial year ended 30 June 2010 also increased by 17.2%, this was mainly contributed by the growth of assets in the Islamic business

- Non interest income increased significantly by 38.3% for the financial year ended 30 June 2010. The increase was contributed by significantly higher fee income arising from commission, service charges & fees and other loans related fee income, unrealized gain on revaluation of derivatives, realized gain arising from sale of securities and foreign exchange profit due to strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia against other major currencies

- Overhead expenses increased by 15.3% for the financial year ended 30 June 2010 over the corresponding period, mainly due to the full year's contribution from BII compared to the corresponding period. Personnel cost increased by 14.3%. Establishment costs increased by 6.3% (including amortization of BII's Customer Deposits Intangibles). Administration and general expenses increased by 35.1% due mainly to increase in royalties paid for the expansion of cards businesses, insurance premium and higher professional fees

- Allowance for losses on loans, advances and financing decreased by 30.1% due to improvements in loan assets quality and better recovery

- The Group posted a 11.4% decrease of profit attributable to equity holders for the fourth quarter ended 30 June 2010 compared to the preceding quarter

- The Group’s net interest income and income from Islamic Banking Scheme operations for the fourth quarter ended 30 June 2010 increased by 6.9% against the preceding quarter

- Non-interest income for the quarter decreased 4.4% compared to that of preceding quarter. The decrease is mainly attributable to the unrealized loss on revaluation of derivatives incurred for the current quarter compared to unrealized gain on revaluation of derivatives incurred for the preceding quarter

- Overhead expenses for the quarter increased by 1.9% over that of the preceding quarter mainly due to higher administrative and general expenses and claims incurred.This was however partly offset by lower marketing expenses

- Compared to the preceding quarter, allowance for losses on loans, advances and financing and impairment losses were higher

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5394*1.1 = 0.5933, estimate PE on current price 8.13 = 12.78(DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1456*4 = 0.5824, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.59 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1404*4 = 0.5616, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.48/11.75 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1246*4 = 0.4984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/13.1 (DPS 0.08)

MAYBANK latest news (English)

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Sunday, August 22, 2010

KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2010 Quarter 2

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 1142216032*6.43 = 7,344,449,085.76 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (4119441-286407)/1136858 = 3.37
P/BV : 6.43/3.37 = 1.908
Forecast P/E now : (6.43-0.24)/0.5461 = 11.33 (Low)
ROE : 11.11% (Moderate)
DY : 0.24/6.43*100 = 3.73% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.2436+1.406+1.6168)/3 = 1.4221 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 4390967/2333962 = 1.8813 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (1001543+974522)/2/(12082314/365) = 29 days (Good)
My Target Price : 8.19+0.24 = 8.43 (PE 15, EPS 0.5461, DPS 0.24)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, good cash flow, above moderate debt and increased, navps increasing, automotive, equipment and manufacturing & engineering division growth largely, oil & gas division increased loss but minor impact and expect to recover because got contract received
Technical Support Price : 6.1
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 6.62 (15 Jul 10)

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- Group revenue for the second quarter ended 30th June 2010 improved 27.2% over the preceding year’s corresponding quarter. Overall, the progressive strengthening of consumer and business confidence continued to generate strong demand for our Toyota vehicles, heavy and industrial equipment as well as automotive parts. However, performance of our Oil & Gas segment remained adversely affected by the slow recovery in the exploration and production sector. The finalisation of contractual terms for our NAGA 2 rig took a longer time than expected. NAGA 2 will be income-generating in September 2010 instead of in April 2010 as originally anticipated

- Group profit before taxation for the second quarter ended 30th June 2010 increased 138.4% over the same quarter of 2009. Higher sales of Toyota and Perodua vehicles, favourable model mix, improved performance from the Equipment and Manufacturing & Engineering segments, coupled with favourable foreign exchange rates, accounted for the significant improvement in profit for the current quarter ended 30th June 2010. Our overseas associate, WSP Holdings Limited, has reported an overall improvement in both domestic and international sales and a lower loss for the second quarter of 2010. The company has successfully secured new overseas customers in Russia, Uzbekistan and South America although sales to North America has not improved due to countervailing duties on seamless pipes made in China

- Total Toyota and Perodua vehicle sales of 143,721 units represented 47.7% of the total industry volume of 301,077 units reported by the Malaysian Automotive Association for the six months ended 30th June 2010

- Group revenue for the second quarter ended 30th June 2010 was 8.2% higher than the first quarter of 2010. Stronger demand for our Toyota vehicles as well as the industrial and heavy equipment mainly accounted for the revenue improvement

- Group profit before taxation for the second quarter ended 30th June 2010 was 45.0% above the recorded in the first quarter of 2010. Higher sales volume, improved margins from favourable foreign exchange rates and lower loss incurred by our overseas associate resulted in the higher profit

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate PE on current price 6.43 = 11.33 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

UMW latest news (English)


Saturday, August 21, 2010

KLCI Stock - PLUS / 5052 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 5000000000*4.06 = 20,300,000,000 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (5877550-3956)/5000000 = 1.17
P/BV : 4.06/1.17 = 3.4701
Forecast P/E now : (4.06-0.175)/0.2739 = 14.18 (Moderate)
ROE : 20.98% (Moderate)
DY : 0.175/4.06*100 = 4.31% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.1795+0.1672+0.1572)/3 = 0.168 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 3312316/882096 = 3.755 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (106745+34690)/2/(3341957/365) = 7 days (Good)
My Target Price : 4.11+0.18 = 4.29 (PE 15, EPS 0.2739, DPS 0.175)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 3.8
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing when compare to previous year corresponding period, good cash flow, high debt and increasing, navps slightly decreasing
Technical Support Price : 3.7
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 4.57 (20 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The Group's toll collection for the second quarter 2010 was higher by 12.0% as compared to the second quarter 2009. The increase was mainly due to increase in PLUS‟s toll collection. For the half year ended 30 June 2010, the Group's toll collection was 11.2% higher than the preceding year corresponding period. The increase was mainly attributed by higher toll collection by PLUS driven by traffic growth of 9.8%
- The Group's total revenue and profit before tax also recorded similar growth trend. Total revenue for the current quarter was 11.3% higher than the preceding year corresponding quarter. The growth was primarily attributable to higher toll collection and higher toll compensation in line with higher traffic volume. For the half year ended 30 June 2010, total revenue was 10.8% higher than the first half 2009. The increase was mainly due to higher toll collection and higher toll compensation
- Profit before income tax for the current quarter was 12.4% higher than the preceding year corresponding quarter, primarily attributable to higher toll revenue, mitigated by higher finance costs as well as amortisation and depreciation charges. For the half year ended 30 June 2010, profit before income tax was higher by 12.5% as compared to the first half 2009. This was mainly due to higher revenue mitigated by higher operating expenditure and finance costs
- Toll collection for the current quarter was higher by 6.3% as compared to the immediate preceding quarter. This was mainly due to higher traffic volume growth for PLUS of 10.5% in the current quarter
- Total revenue for the current quarter was 5.7% higher than immediate preceding quarter, mainly due to higher toll collection and higher toll compensation in line with the traffic growth
- Profit before income tax for the current quarter was 6.3% higher than the immediate preceding quarter,mainly due to higher revenue mitigated by higher operating expenditure
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.249*1.1 = 0.2739, estimate PE on current price 4.06 = 14.18(DPS 0.175)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2414*1.1 = 0.2655, estimate PE on current price 3.6 = 14.56/11.43 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2373*1.1 = 0.261, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.82/11.74 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2335*1.1 = 0.2569, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.79 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2196*1.1 = 0.2416, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/12.79 (DPS 0.16)

PLUS latest news (English)


Friday, August 20, 2010

KLCI Stock - BHIC / 8133 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 248457614*4.5 = 1,118,059,263 (Large)
NTA per share : 391876/248458 = 1.58
P/BV : 4.5/1.58 = 2.8481
Forecast P/E now : (4.5-0.06)/0.2798 = 15.87 (High)
ROE : 19.24% (Moderate)
DY : 0.06/4.5*100 = 1.33% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.76+1.0409+0.7877)/3 = 0.8629
Liquidity Ratio : 396148/234133 = 1.692 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (366142+209202)/2/(500671/365) = 209 days
My Target Price : 3.92 + 0.06 = 3.98 (PE 14, EPS 0.2798, DPS 0.06)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 3.8
My Comment : Revenue increased but profit slightly decreased, still negative net cash flow, cash increased from CFF, above moderate debt and increased, navps increasing, contract received increasing
Technical Support Price : 3.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- The Group recorded 18% lower revenue compared to the corresponding period ended 30 June 2009. Cost escalations resulting from delays in completing certain shipbuilding projects, coupled with a reduced contribution from associates, resulted in profit after taxation reducing by 6%
- The current quarter revenue was higher by 18% as compared to the first quarter of 2010. Profit before taxation registered for the current quarter represented a 5% decrease in earnings as compared to the results in the preceding quarter due to cost overruns in certain shipbuilding projects
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0636*1.1*4 = 0.2798 (10% increase due to many new contract received), estimate PE on current price 4.5 = 15.87 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0631*4 = 0.2524*0.9 = 0.2272 (10% drop from 0.2524), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.13/15.58 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0749*4 = 0.2996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.75/12.65 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.16 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0709*4 = 0.2836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/16.24 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0616*4 = 0.2464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.99/12.68 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0602*4 = 0.2408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/9.7 (DPS 0.055)

BHIC latest news (English)

BHIC Latest news (Chinese)


Thursday, August 19, 2010

KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2010 Quarter 2

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 93716875*2.56 = 239,915,200 (Small)
NTA per share : (166782-1291)/93717 = 1.77
P/BV : 2.56/1.77 = 1.4463
Forecast P/E now : (2.56-0.076)/0.2935 = 8.46 (Moderate)
ROE : 15.26% (Moderate)
DY : 0.076/2.56*100 = 2.97% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.1907+1.2007+1.1613)/3 = 1.1842 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 139087/60173 = 2.3115 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (77422+70769)/2/(297172/365) = 91 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.935+0.076 = 3.01 (PE 10, EPS 0.2935, DPS 0.076)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased from preceding year, good cash flow, below moderate debt, navps decreased, increased incorporated company, all operating segments show better result than preceding year, new retail at JB open in FY10Q4
Technical Support Price : 2.5
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- For the current quarter to June 2010, the Group’s pretax profit was recorded an increase of 40% over that achieved in the similar quarter last year. Second quarter revenue recorded an increase of 10% over the same period in 2009. For the first six months of year 2010, the Group recorded a pretax profit and revenue of 45% and 10% year-on-year growth
- The Group’s manufacturing division, Xepa-Soul Pattinson Malaysia Sdn Bhd, achieved 21% year-on-year revenue growth in the Malaysian private healthcare sector. Sales to retail pharmacies in Singapore were strong, and marketing activities in Vietnam were intensified so as to maintain growth momentum
- The wholesale, marketing and distribution division continued to sustain steady revenue growth, helped by strong sales of consumer healthcare products and new agency lines secured in the quarter. Margins were enhanced by a greater proportion of own brand products in the sales mix and careful control of operating expenses
- The Group’s associate company in China, Xiamen Maidiken Science and Technology Co Ltd, continued to return strong results, with year-on-year revenue growth of 37%, driven largely by increased market share in pharmaceutical distribution and improved performance of its chain retail pharmacy operations
- Profit before tax for the second quarter is 11% lower than that achieved in the immediate preceding quarter. This is because of lower second quarter revenue compared to the first, attributed to a moderated demand for the Group’s products following an exceptionally strong first quarter
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1334*2*1.1 = 0.2935 (0.1334 is recent 2Q cum_eps, 10% increase), estimate PE on current price 2.56 = 8.46(DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.32 (add 5% adjustment from 0.3048 due to profit boosted), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.48/8.41 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/6.18 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

AHEALTH latest news (English)


Wednesday, August 18, 2010

KLCI Stock - 3A / 0012 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 369600019*1.83 = 676,368,034.77 (Medium)
NTA per share : 146804/369600 = 0.4
P/BV : 1.83/0.4 = 4.575 (High)
Forecast P/E now : (1.83-0.016)/0.0858 = 21.14 (High)
ROE : 17.06% (Moderate)
DY : 0.016/1.83*100 = 0.87% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.9638+1.0567+1.0242+0.9054)/4 = 0.9875 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 134382/54629 = 2.4599 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (61891+37584)/2/(218715/365) = 83 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit no more QbQ increase, negative net cash flow and increased CFF, moderate debt and increased, navps increased, raw material costs increased
Technical Support Price : 1.6
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- There is an increase of 26.3% in the turnover of the Group for the current quarter as compared to the corresponding quarter in the preceding year mainly due to better demand for the Group's products
- The Group's profit before taxation decrease 9.4% from preceding year corresponding quarter as a result of increase in raw material costs
- The Group's turnover in the current quarter is 7% lower than immediate preceding quarter. The reason is due to increase in raw material costs
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0286*3 = 0.0858(0.0286 is recent 2Q cum_eps, FYQ1-11 & FYQ2-11 to double as current), estimate PE on current price 1.83 = 21.14 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.076, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.89/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.076 (~30% EPS grow), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.05/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.68/15.63 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.74/7.09 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.56/11.96 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.34 (DPS 0.01)

3A latest news (English)


Tuesday, August 17, 2010

KLCI Stock - MAS / 3786 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 3342156240*2.28 = 7,620,116,227.20 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (3141239-120561)/3342156 = 0.9
P/BV : 2.28/0.9 = 2.5333
Forecast P/E now : Not interested
ROE : Not applicable
DY : Not applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.0476+1.5191+1.4543)/3 = 1.3403 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 4269381/5425514 = 0.7869 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (1356798+1644246)/2/(12508291/365) = 43 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increasing if compared to preceding year, profit still not stable, negative cash flow and caused cash reduce around 20%, high debt and increased, navps decreased, crude oil price hit recent quarter high (above $80), passenger and cargo traffic growing, new B737-800 aircraft entering into service
Technical Support Price : 1.8
Risk Rating : HIGH
OSK Target Price : 1.5(18 May 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a lower operating loss of RM285.6 million for the second quarter ended 30 June 2010 (Quarter ended 30 June 2009: RM425.6 million loss). The lower operating loss was mainly due to higher incremental operating revenue as compared to operating expenses
- The Group recorded an operating loss for the quarter of RM285.6 million compared to operating profit of RM289.5 million in the previous quarter mainly because of the compensation for the delay of A380 aircraft included in the other operating income in the previous quarter. The Group recorded a loss after tax of RM533.6 million including derivative loss of RM217.2 million for the quarter as compared to profit after tax of RM310.6 million in previous quarter

MAS latest news (English)


Monday, August 16, 2010

KLCI Stock - TDM / 2054 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 219666202*2.29 = 503,035,602.58 (Moderate)
NTA per share : (636997-1070)/221337 = 2.87
P/BV : 2.29/2.87 = 0.7979
Forecast P/E now : (2.29-0.13)/0.3732 = 5.79 (Moderate)
ROE : 11.44% (Moderate)
DY : 0.13/2.29*100 = 5.68% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.4374+0.4136+0.4202)/3 = 0.4237 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 206867/142857 = 1.4481 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (84105+83897)/2/(368748/365) = 83 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.43+0.13 = 2.56 (PE 6.5, EPS 0.3732, DPS 0.13)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit QbQ decreasing(recent 2Q), good cash flow, below moderate debt and slightly decreased, navps decreased, CPO price increasing, monthly production increasing
Technical Support Price : 2
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- For the current quarter, the Group recorded an increase of 14% in revenue from previous corresponding quarter. Group revenue for the six months period ended 30 June 2010 was 22.7% increased from the same period last year
- Plantation Division recorded higher revenue by 20% as compared to the same period last due to higher CPO production by 1% and higher average CPO prices by 7%
- Healthcare Division continues to register double digit revenue and profit growth. For the quarter ended 30 June 2010, the division recorded an increase in revenue and profit before tax by 13% and 22% respectively. This is contributed by the increased in patient number by 5% as compared to the same period last year
- Food Division recorded losses of RM0.8 million due to lower average prices achieved as a result of weakened demand for process birds during the 6 months ended 30 June 2010
- The Group recorded a decreased of 36.9% in profit before taxation for the current quarter over preceding quarter due to lower CPO production by 9%
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0933*4 = 0.3732(0.0933 is average of eps in FY10Q1 and FY09Q4), estimate PE on current price 2.29 = 5.79(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0889*4 = 0.3556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/4.16 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2503*1.2 = 0.3004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.23/5.13 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = (0.0923+0.0418+0.019)/3*4*1.2 = 0.245, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.37/5.51 (DPS 0.14)

TDM latest news (English)