KLCI Stock - TSH / 9059 - 2010 Quarter 2

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 414530263*1.93 = 800,043,407.59 (Medium)
NTA per share : (739856-49513)/410908 = 1.68
P/BV : 1.93/1.68 = 1.1488
Forecast P/E now : (1.93-0.05)/0.132 = 14.24 (High)
ROE : 8.43% (Low)
DY : 0.05/1.93*100 = 2.59% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.5268+0.6329+0.7803)/3 = 0.6467 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 424188/458228 = 0.9257 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (131510+152842)/2/(943917/365) = 54 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, strong cash, high debt and increased, navps increasing, monthly production remain low, palm oil land increased, USD and EUR against MYR lower than preceding quarter
Technical Support Price : 1.8
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- For the current quarter, the Group recorded a decrease of 12.8% in revenue as compared to the previous corresponding quarter

- The Group posted a 40.8% lower profit before taxation as compared to the previous corresponding quarter

- As the bulk of the finished products from our Wood Products segment are exported to Europe and USA, the results were affected by the strengthening of the Ringgit Malaysia against the foreign currencies. The Cocoa Manufacturing and Trading segment continues to be affected by low demand and high prices. Nevertheless, the Palm Bio-Integration business segment’s performance has improved as a result of higher CPO price

- The Group’s revenue for the quarter under review was 13.7% lower than the immediate preceding quarter. The Group posted a 1.1% lower profit before taxation as compared to the immediate preceding quarter. The result under Palm and Bio-Integration segment was slightly unfavourable owing to the seasonality effects. The Wood Products segment’s performance is further affected by the drop in selling prices and profit margin due to the further strengthening of the Ringgit Malaysia against the USD and Euro. However, performance of Cocoa Manufacturing and Trading segment continue to show improvement as cocoa prices stabilise at the back of the recovery of the global economy

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.033*4 = 0.132, estimate PE on current price 1.93 = 14.24(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1938*0.95 = 0.1841, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.59/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1802*1.1 = 0.1982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.78 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0568*4*0.95 = 0.2158, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/7.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.055*4*0.8 = 0.176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.97/8.35 (DPS 0.05)

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