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Showing posts with label NESTLE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NESTLE. Show all posts

Thursday, April 4, 2013

KLCI Stock - NESTLE / 4707 - 2012 Quarter 4

NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD


Company Description
NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD is an investment holding company. The Company, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the manufacture, marketing and sale of food products in Malaysia. The Company offers brand names, such as MILO, NESCAFE, MAGGI, NESPRAY and KIT KAT. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company launched MILO GOLD chocolate malt drink; the NESCAFÉ BODY PARTNER range with Kacip Fatimah and Collagen and Soya variants; NESCAFÉ 3in1 GOLD coffee mix containing freeze dried coffee; the MAGGI TASTYLITE range of low fat noodles; MILO Wafer; LACTOGEN infant formula with the addition of PREBIO1 galacto-oligosaccharide(GOS) and fructo-oligosaccharide (FOS) fibres; LACTOGEN 3 formulated milk powder for children, and LACTOGEN infant formula Bag-in-Box (BIB) 700 grams. In 2008, it re-launched the Nestlé branded range of Take-Home Tubs with Hi Calcium.

Company Info
Listing Date 1989-12-13
Market Capital (Capital Size) 14,299,810,000 (Very Large)
Par Value RM 1.00
Board Main
Sector Consumer Products
Major Industry Food & Beverages
Sub Industry Nutrition
Website http://www.nestle.com.my/

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now (60.98-2.1)/2.4174 = 24.36 (Moderate)
Target Price 65.27+2.1 = 67.37 (PE 27.0, EPS 2.4174, DPS 2.1)
First Support Price 60.0
Second Support Price 58.7
Risk Rating MODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price 61.38 (2012-11-02)
BIMB Target Price 68.7 (2013-02-22)
CIMB Target Price 60.2 (2013-02-22)
Maybank Target Price 58.6 (2013-02-25)
MIDF Target Price 59.52 (2013-02-25)
RHB Target Price 61.38 (2013-02-25)
Kenanga Target Price 73.3 (2013-03-29)
TA Target Price 62.11 (2013-04-02)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity 77.42%
Dividend Yield 3.44%
Gross Profit Margin 35.91%
Operating Profit Margin 10.60%
Net Profit Margin 10.26%
Tax Rate 11.86%
Asset Turnover 2.3916
Net Asset Value Per Share 3.2
Net Tangible Asset per share 2.94
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share 19.97
Cash Per Share 0.15
Liquidity Current Ratio 0.9046
Liquidity Quick Ratio 0.4622
Liquidity Cash Ratio 0.0372
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio 1.5361
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio 0.6057
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale -1.9%
Days to sell the inventory 50
Days to collect the receivables 32
Days to pay the payables 106

Technical Analysis
SMA 10 60.75 (Uptrend)
SMA 20 60.684 (Uptrend 26 days)
SMA 50 59.989 (Same)
SMA 100 61.25 (Downtrend)
SMA 200 61.128 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d) 0.197112 ( 0.007802 )
Signal (9) 0.174674 ( 0.00561 )
MACD Histogram 0.022438 (Bullish trend 3 days)
Bolinger Upper Band 61.937
Bolinger Lower Band 59.431

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q4 mainly driven by Domestic Sales and easing in the price of commodities and some mix resulted in an improvement in gross margin and higher PAT was driven by the tax benefit realised from higher capital investments

- Lower pbt than FY12Q3 due to high operating expenses mostly related to marketing and promotional investments

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q4 result announced = 2.4174, estimate PE on current price 60.98 = 24.36(DPS 2.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = (405873+87066)*1.15/234500 = 2.4174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.88/22.5 (DPS 1.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 640860*0.78/234500 = 2.1316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.04/27.3 (DPS 1.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 640860*0.75/234500 = 2.0497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.3/24.25 (DPS 1.8)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 640860*0.64/234500 = 1.749, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.56/30.3 (DPS 1.8)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4691*4 = 1.8764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.63/24.98 (DPS 1.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 1.7283*1.2 = 2.074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.44/21.82 (DPS 1.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1.6691*0.8 = 1.3353, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.21/31.94 (DPS 1.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4827*4 = 1.9308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.05/20.99 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4271*4*1.1 = 1.8792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.15/20.22 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.56+0.1491+0.0357 = 1.7448(0.1491 from adjustment between 2009 Q1 eps and 2010 Q1 eps, 0.0357 from QbQ improvement adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.21/18.52 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.56(around 4% from 1.5002), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.12/20.54 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.06/21.12 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.65/21.78 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.42/17.82 (DPS 1.3)

NESTLE latest news (English)

NESTLE Latest news (Chinese)

Cocoa price chart


Financial Quarter Summary   Open in New Window
a_date year qrt h_price l_price div roe c_roe rev c_rev pbt c_pbt prof c_prof eps c_eps asset c_asset liab c_liab mino equi cfo cfi cff cash fcf net final share c_share m_cap date gros_m oper_m prof_m vat asset_t pe navps ntaps p/ntaps cps l_cur l_qui l_cash g_de g_da avg_w inv_d rec_d pay_d
2013-02-21 2012 4 N/A N/A 1.55 15.24% 77.42% 1099779 4556423 112864 637668 99479 505352 0.4242 2.1550 1905169 840703 1153963 929392 - 751206 828652 155703 690817 52461 672949 17868 34593 234500 234500 13765150 2012-12-31 35.91% 10.60% 10.26% 11.86% 2.3916 27.2387 3.2 2.94 19.97 0.15 0.9046 0.4622 0.0372 1.5361 0.6057 -1.9% 50 32 106
2012-11-01 2012 3 69.5 56.5 - 19.50% 62.18% 1142994 3456644 173970 524804 127299 405873 0.5429 1.7308 1981411 981901 1193136 859297 - 788275 579192 74202 447019 52461 504990 57971 110432 234500 234500 16297750 2012-09-30 33.64% 15.62% 15.22% 26.83% 2.286 - 3.36 3.1 22.42 0.47 1.1427 0.694 0.1285 1.5136 0.6022 2.7% 47 39 95
2012-08-30 2012 2 70.2 60.1 0.55 18.46% 42.68% 1149522 2313650 144008 350835 120495 278575 0.5138 1.1880 1959272 980075 1299736 973409 - 659536 399858 31937 340135 52461 367921 27786 80247 234500 234500 15012690 2012-06-30 33.75% 12.96% 12.53% 16.33% 2.27 - 2.81 2.55 25.11 0.34 1.0068 0.5425 0.0824 1.9707 0.6634 0.1% 55 37 98
2012-04-25 2012 1 65.96 51.5 - 24.22% 24.22% 1164128 1164128 206827 206827 158080 158080 0.6741 0.6741 1954889 973362 1118045 786476 - 836844 75966 11273 84755 52461 64693 20062 32399 234500 234500 13099170 2012-03-31 33.14% 18.27% 17.77% 23.57% 2.2191 - 3.57 3.31 16.88 0.14 1.2376 0.6524 0.0412 1.336 0.5719 4.3% 57 40 85
2012-02-23 2011 4 57.0 54.8 1.25 12.27% 69.64% 1072828 4246744 101847 558809 75268 427128 0.3210 1.8214 2011301 1015064 1358582 914740 - 652719 581844 90683 461013 22313 491161 30148 52461 234500 234500 13085100 2011-12-31 33.72% 10.08% 9.49% 26.10% 2.1114 30.6351 2.78 2.52 22.14 0.22 1.1097 0.5439 0.0574 2.0814 0.6755 2.4% 66 38 112
2011-11-04 2011 3 57.34 48.62 - 17.33% 57.37% 1061042 3173916 138080 456962 106321 351860 0.4534 1.5005 1894295 930680 1207313 764046 - 686982 430996 45897 339855 22313 385099 45244 67557 234500 234500 11725000 2011-09-30 30.27% 13.49% 13.01% 23.00% 2.1844 - 2.93 2.67 18.73 0.29 1.2181 0.6137 0.0884 1.7574 0.6373 4.0% 60 35 96
2011-08-18 2011 2 50.5 46.9 0.55 16.04% 40.03% 1040114 2112874 127774 318881 98386 245538 0.4196 1.0471 1840735 873646 1235775 785417 - 604960 375319 24063 323797 22313 351256 27459 49772 234500 234500 11232550 2011-06-30 32.61% 12.71% 12.28% 23.00% 2.2099 - 2.58 2.32 20.65 0.21 1.1123 0.5976 0.0634 2.0427 0.6713 2.2% 54 38 100
2011-05-20 2011 1 48.2 46.48 - 23.99% 23.99% 1072760 1072760 191107 191107 147152 147152 0.6275 0.6275 1779544 804087 1011063 725583 - 768481 241235 6669 223877 22313 234566 10689 33002 234500 234500 11251310 2011-03-31 33.75% 18.26% 17.81% 23.00% 2.2919 - 3.28 3.02 15.89 0.14 1.1082 0.6275 0.0455 1.3157 0.5682 1.9% 47 38 94
2011-02-24 2010 4 50.0 44.3 1.15 6.92% 69.01% 963893 4026319 45004 465744 39259 391398 0.1674 1.6691 1778681 783869 1165345 720915 - 613336 508926 140388 366372 20147 368538 2166 22313 234500 234500 10622850 2010-12-31 34.00% 5.17% 4.67% 12.77% 2.2637 27.1408 2.62 2.36 19.19 0.21 1.0873 0.5595 0.0675 1.9 0.6552 1.6% 52 32 85
2010-10-28 2010 3 46.0 42.02 - 19.96% 62.09% 991076 3062426 132652 420740 113187 352139 0.4827 1.5017 1759887 824029 1071185 623979 - 688702 389794 58071 301359 20147 331723 30364 50511 234500 234500 10224200 2010-09-30 33.06% 13.91% 13.38% 14.67% 2.2803 - 2.94 2.68 16.27 0.22 1.3206 0.708 0.0809 1.5554 0.6087 5.0% 53 35 82
2010-08-26 2010 2 45.0 39.5 0.5 17.66% 42.13% 1050863 2071350 117470 288088 100153 238952 0.4271 1.0190 1832100 890648 1253685 812088 - 578415 216596 33820 174337 20147 182776 8439 28586 234500 234500 9258060 2010-06-30 32.98% 11.82% 11.18% 14.74% 2.1335 - 2.47 2.21 17.86 0.12 1.0967 0.5418 0.0352 2.1674 0.6843 2.0% 64 38 92
2010-04-21 2010 1 42.0 33.82 - 24.47% 24.47% 1020487 1020487 170617 170617 138798 138798 0.5919 0.5919 1802257 866123 1092056 643044 - 710201 37927 7210 20746 20147 30717 9971 30118 234500 234500 8249710 2010-03-31 33.54% 17.21% 16.72% 18.65% 2.0978 - 3.03 2.77 12.7 0.13 1.3469 0.7303 0.0468 1.5377 0.6059 5.9% 59 42 86
2010-02-25 2009 4 36.0 33.54 1.0 16.72% 68.21% 950632 3744233 99175 440261 86224 351793 0.3677 1.5002 1712717 757671 1145538 698779 - 567179 635517 256271 384789 25690 379246 5543 20147 234500 234500 7949550 2009-12-31 36.32% 11.00% 10.43% 13.06% 2.1861 22.5972 2.42 2.16 15.69 0.11 1.0843 0.5771 0.0369 2.0197 0.6688 1.6% 53 36 92
2009-10-29 2009 3 34.82 32.2 - 15.46% 51.49% 886812 2793601 106411 341086 79760 265569 0.3401 1.1325 1620124 740934 1022488 571860 - 597636 408706 162715 230745 25690 245991 15246 40936 234500 234500 7785400 2009-09-30 34.21% 12.55% 12.00% 25.05% 2.3247 - 2.55 2.29 14.5 0.17 1.2957 0.6665 0.0716 1.7109 0.6311 4.5% 52 32 71
2009-08-27 2009 2 35.68 32.96 0.5 16.57% 36.03% 922857 1906789 104271 234675 85455 185809 0.3644 0.7924 1722351 882009 1207862 1078262 - 514489 245189 104473 130753 25690 140716 9963 35653 234500 234500 7926100 2009-06-30 34.52% 11.81% 11.30% 18.05% 2.2302 - 2.19 1.93 17.51 0.15 0.818 0.3986 0.0331 2.3477 0.7013 -5.1% 64 37 126
2009-04-15 2009 1 34.0 28.5 - 19.46% 19.46% 983932 983932 130404 130404 100354 100354 0.4279 0.4279 1664923 850316 1048169 923648 - 616754 159935 54152 94489 25690 105783 11294 36984 234500 234500 6859125 2009-03-31 31.94% 13.85% 13.25% 23.04% 2.3625 - 2.63 2.37 12.34 0.16 0.9206 0.4624 0.04 1.6995 0.6296 -1.9% 57 36 119
2009-02-26 2008 4 29.75 27.75 0.8 12.13% 53.49% 972648 3877068 104798 441353 77279 340887 0.3295 1.4537 1660401 881882 1144646 1030457 - 515755 579063 185696 399347 31670 393367 5980 25690 234500 234500 6448750 2008-12-31 31.03% 11.56% 10.77% 26.26% 2.335 18.9176 2.2 1.94 14.18 0.11 0.8558 0.4099 0.0249 2.2194 0.6894 -3.8% 63 37 123
2008-10-30 2008 3 28.25 26.25 - 13.74% 41.37% 961822 2904420 113063 336555 87542 263608 0.3733 1.1241 1709072 986484 1260600 1177158 - 448472 370828 108719 246103 31670 262109 16006 47676 234500 234500 6507375 2008-09-30 32.40% 12.56% 11.76% 22.57% 2.2007 - 1.91 1.65 16.82 0.2 0.838 0.4122 0.0405 2.8109 0.7376 -5.1% 70 42 129
2008-08-07 2008 2 28.25 26.0 0.5 12.82% 27.63% 1014910 1942598 98733 223491 81720 176065 0.3485 0.7508 1837309 1145941 1351157 1256125 - 486152 168433 61962 64115 31670 106471 42356 74026 234500 234500 6331500 2008-06-30 29.81% 10.15% 9.73% 17.23% 1.9924 - 2.07 1.81 14.92 0.32 0.9123 0.5243 0.0589 2.7793 0.7354 -3.0% 71 58 126
2008-04-23 2008 1 32.0 26.0 0.6119 14.80% 14.80% 927688 927688 124758 124758 94345 94345 0.4023 0.4023 1757776 1093545 1028327 935668 - 729449 38510 18720 9044 31670 19790 28834 60504 234500 234500 7035000 2008-03-31 31.02% 13.83% 13.45% 24.38% 1.9907 - 3.11 2.85 10.53 0.26 1.1687 0.6144 0.0647 1.4097 0.585 4.5% 80 54 103
2008-02-28 2007 4 30.0 25.5 1.065 6.05% 52.23% 856696 3416028 52517 395298 33840 292042 0.1443 1.2454 1603150 939353 965891 869761 - 637259 290657 100721 214094 55828 189936 24158 31670 234500 234500 6155625 2007-12-31 27.92% 6.56% 6.13% 35.56% 2.1308 21.0779 2.72 2.46 10.67 0.14 1.08 0.5665 0.0364 1.5157 0.6025 2.0% 71 49 88
2007-10-25 2007 3 32.0 24.2 - 20.74% 46.18% 861442 2559332 153565 342781 115966 258202 0.4945 1.1011 1575788 949111 989563 873565 - 586225 247736 61318 195598 55828 186418 9180 46648 234500 234500 5698350 2007-09-30 38.50% 18.29% 17.83% 24.48% 2.1241 - 2.5 2.23 10.9 0.2 1.0865 0.6762 0.0534 1.688 0.628 2.3% 60 59 109
2007-08-09 2007 2 N/A N/A 0.274 12.95% 25.44% 853440 1697890 95591 189216 72409 142236 0.3088 0.6066 1499209 884227 981065 764460 - 518144 142188 30604 129304 55828 111584 17720 38108 234500 234500 5651450 2007-06-30 32.88% 11.64% 11.20% 24.25% 1.658 - 2.21 1.94 12.42 0.17 1.1567 0.7076 0.0532 1.8934 0.6544 4.8% 76 73 139
2007-04-25 2007 1 N/A N/A 0.2055 12.49% 12.49% 844450 844450 93625 93625 69827 69827 0.2978 0.2978 1457290 845599 824746 611248 - 632544 33493 9850 30008 55828 23643 6365 49463 234500 234500 5721800 2007-03-31 32.43% 11.40% 11.09% 25.42% 1.1201 - 2.7 2.42 10.08 0.21 1.3834 0.8964 0.0809 1.3039 0.5659 14.4% 100 111 184
2007-02-27 2006 4 N/A N/A 0.849726 N/A N/A 787795 3275541 72784 363285 51473 264219 0.2195 1.1267 1458714 816133 899608 682565 - 559106 358057 76294 259814 33879 281763 21949 55828 234500 234500 5815600 2006-12-31 34.51% 9.55% 9.24% 29.28% 0.5401 22.0105 2.38 2.1 11.81 0.24 1.1957 0.7112 0.0818 1.609 0.6167 17.0% 234 199 419

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet   Open in New Window
year qrt Deferred tax assets (A-0) Intangible assets (A-0) Investment in associated companies (A-0) Property, plant and equipment (A-0) Receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-0) Cash and cash equivalents (A-1) Current tax assets (A-1) Inventories (A-1) Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1) Deferred tax liabilities (L-0) Employee benefits (L-0) Loans & borrowings (L-0) Current tax liabilities (L-1) Loans & borrowings (L-1) Payables and accruals (L-1)
2012 4 32412 61024 3217 945812 22001 34593 796 411170 394144 74858 54546 95167 53124 4223 872045
2012 3 20702 61024 3032 889892 24860 110432 428 385575 485466 80258 38337 215244 68463 4146 786688
2012 2 21091 61024 2952 871748 22382 80247 110 452045 447673 71400 39202 215725 67449 103649 802311
2012 1 18506 61024 2975 876343 22679 32399 263 460269 480431 74746 40107 216716 56989 46204 683283
2011 4 18460 61024 3210 889741 23802 52461 176 517573 444854 63815 42316 337711 32196 4223 878321
2011 3 7257 61024 3424 868344 23566 67557 151 461752 401220 72631 40374 330262 29451 2561 732034
2011 2 8431 61024 3194 870956 23484 49772 191 404242 419441 79523 40853 329982 27706 12556 745155
2011 1 8833 61024 3255 879026 23319 33002 223 348769 422093 80042 39740 165698 23593 2582 699408
2010 4 10441 61024 3189 897505 22653 48683 344 380539 354303 75595 42537 326298 10390 87256 623269
2010 3 3922 61024 3218 843803 23891 50511 7209 382231 384078 72796 48411 325999 25468 2878 595633
2010 2 6236 61024 3217 844481 26494 28586 7118 450624 404320 66434 48411 326752 42801 123956 645331
2010 1 6203 61024 3544 842145 23218 30118 3362 396487 436156 72865 48411 327736 24599 35526 582919
2009 4 7379 61024 3467 860253 22923 25751 7118 354381 370421 70309 48411 328039 20093 56458 622228
2009 3 2707 61024 3464 786231 25764 40936 5284 359766 334948 75347 54698 320583 14005 64179 493676
2009 2 2633 61024 3176 749131 24378 35653 4692 452266 389398 73051 54698 1851 16036 163639 898587
2009 1 3974 61024 3114 719676 26819 36984 5468 423267 384597 67530 54698 2293 22991 17590 883067
2008 4 3980 61024 3242 686459 23814 25690 5220 459489 391483 56801 54698 2690 20136 105953 904368
2008 3 5065 61024 3627 628876 23996 47676 - 501209 437599 39165 40321 3956 19248 234712 923198
2008 2 4103 61024 3639 599858 22744 74026 - 487417 584498 50657 40321 4054 13665 380686 861774
2008 1 3462 61024 3544 574185 22016 60504 - 518671 514370 47899 40321 4439 22667 243867 669134
2007 4 2631 61280 3600 574092 22194 31670 - 446602 461081 50630 40321 5179 16871 302703 550187
2007 3 5672 62216 3553 555236 - 46648 - 358405 544058 46044 64277 5677 27866 193711 651988
2007 2 6020 63152 3596 542214 - 40659 - 343287 500281 46103 64277 106225 16209 118455 629796
2007 1 5608 64747 3501 537835 - 49463 - 297695 498441 46075 64277 103146 21689 40812 548747
2006 4 6709 66342 3417 546699 19414 55828 - 330674 429631 45558 64277 107208 23193 66758 592614

Financial Quarter Income Statement   Open in New Window
year qrt Revenue Income tax expense Cost of sales Finance/interest costs Administrative/Operating expenses Finance/interest income Share of profit/ (loss) of associates
2012 4 1099779 13385 704808 4215 278383 318 173
2012 3 1142994 46671 758524 4956 205902 278 80
2012 2 1149522 23513 761604 5219 238927 259 23
2012 1 1164128 48747 778303 5741 173096 74 235
2011 4 1072828 26579 711038 6443 253625 39 86
2011 3 1061042 31759 739835 5479 178044 166 230
2011 2 1040114 29388 700909 4503 206969 102 61
2011 1 1072760 43955 710753 4973 166144 151 66
2010 4 963893 5745 636133 4826 277918 15 27
2010 3 991076 19465 663418 5191 189827 11 1
2010 2 1050863 17317 704298 6536 222403 6 162
2010 1 1020487 31819 678178 5116 166654 3 75
2009 4 950632 12951 605366 5470 240742 4 117
2009 3 886812 26651 583421 5186 192108 3 311
2009 2 922857 18816 604309 4738 209594 10 45
2009 1 983932 30050 669643 5729 178061 18 113
2008 4 972648 27519 670803 7380 189416 1 252
2008 3 961822 25521 650203 65 190818 7791 12
2008 2 1014910 17013 712390 4382 199532 32 95
2008 1 927688 30413 639922 3538 159455 41 56
2007 4 856696 18677 617499 3940 182993 75 178
2007 3 861442 37599 529791 4014 174064 35 43
2007 2 853440 23182 572807 3988 181310 161 95
2007 1 844450 23798 570622 2900 177559 172 84
2006 4 787795 21311 515907 2882 196656 259 175

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
year qrt Others Food & Beverages
2012 4 195062 904717
2012 3 201854 941140
2012 2 196765 952757
2012 1 222089 942039
2011 4 175738 897090
2011 3 178196 882846
2011 2 182032 858082
2011 1 210286 862474
2010 4 157099 806794
2010 3 166333 824743
2010 2 170840 880023
2010 1 184403 836084
2009 4 151488 799144
2009 3 161211 725601
2009 2 162117 760740
2009 1 185476 798456

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
year qrt Others Food & Beverages
2012 4 20618 96370
2012 3 33042 145525
2012 2 29076 119810
2012 1 38303 174531
2011 4 25210 93145
2011 3 18799 124365
2011 2 24798 98891
2011 1 39465 164945
2010 4 12098 64117
2010 3 28056 104596
2010 2 22065 95406
2010 1 41246 129371
2009 4 29898 98309
2009 3 24102 82309
2009 2 26795 77476
2009 1 38113 92291
Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

KLCI Stock - NESTLE / 4707 - 2012 Quarter 3

NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD


Company Description
NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD is an investment holding company. The Company, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the manufacture, marketing and sale of food products in Malaysia. The Company offers brand names, such as MILO, NESCAFE, MAGGI, NESPRAY and KIT KAT. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company launched MILO GOLD chocolate malt drink; the NESCAFÉ BODY PARTNER range with Kacip Fatimah and Collagen and Soya variants; NESCAFÉ 3in1 GOLD coffee mix containing freeze dried coffee; the MAGGI TASTYLITE range of low fat noodles; MILO Wafer; LACTOGEN infant formula with the addition of PREBIO1 galacto-oligosaccharide(GOS) and fructo-oligosaccharide (FOS) fibres; LACTOGEN 3 formulated milk powder for children, and LACTOGEN infant formula Bag-in-Box (BIB) 700 grams. In 2008, it re-launched the Nestlé branded range of Take-Home Tubs with Hi Calcium.

Company Info
Listing Date1989-12-13
Market Capital (Capital Size)15,219,050,000 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorConsumer Products
Major IndustryFood & Beverages
Sub IndustryNutrition
Websitehttp://www.nestle.com.my/

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(64.6-1.9)/2.4174 = 25.94 (Moderate)
Target Price72.52+1.9 = 74.42 (PE 30.0, EPS 2.4174, DPS 1.9)
DecisionBUY if stock price move uptrend above SMA200 or wait rebound at lower price
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.6% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.7%, eps increased 5.7% and also higher than preceding year correspnding quarter 19.7%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, gross margin maintain very high, liquidity ratio indicate Group can meet current obligation with short turnover period, gearing ratio indicate high leverage to generate more income, all accounting of turnover period is good, all segment business growth
First Support Price64.0
Second Support Price60.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
BIMB Target Price68.2 (2012-11-02)
Kenanga Target Price72.1 (2012-11-02)
OSK Target Price61.38 (2012-11-02)
CIMB Target Price65.36 (2012-11-06)
MIDF Target Price59.52 (2012-11-06)
TA Target Price60.84 (2012-11-06)
Maybank Target Price58.6 (2012-11-07)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity76.38%
Dividend Yield2.93%
Gross Profit Margin33.64%
Operating Profit Margin15.62%
Net Profit Margin15.22%
Tax Rate26.83%
Asset Turnover2.3446
Net Asset Value Per Share3.36
Net Tangible Asset per share3.1
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share22.42
Cash Per Share0.47
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1427
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.694
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1285
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.5136
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6022
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale2.6%
Days to sell the inventory46
Days to collect the receivables38
Days to pay the payables93

Technical Analysis
SMA 1067.324 (Downtrend)
SMA 2067.003 (Uptrend 25 days)
SMA 5064.196 (Uptrend)
SMA 10061.651 (Uptrend)
SMA 20057.762 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.497854 ( 0.186683 )
Signal (9)1.083316 ( 0.146365 )
MACD Histogram0.585462 (Bearish trend 5 days)
Bolinger Upper Band73.161
Bolinger Lower Band60.845

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 largely the result of the higher domestic sales particularly noted in the fast growing categories within the Group's portfolio namely, Confectionery, Liquid Drinks, Chilled Dairy and Ice Cream

- Higher pbt than FY12Q2 due to lower operating expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = (405873+87066)*1.15/234500 = 2.4174, estimate PE on current price 64.6 = 25.94(DPS 1.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 640860*0.78/234500 = 2.1316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.04/27.3 (DPS 1.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 640860*0.75/234500 = 2.0497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.3/24.25 (DPS 1.8)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 640860*0.64/234500 = 1.749, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.56/30.3 (DPS 1.8)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4691*4 = 1.8764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.63/24.98 (DPS 1.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 1.7283*1.2 = 2.074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.44/21.82 (DPS 1.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1.6691*0.8 = 1.3353, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.21/31.94 (DPS 1.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4827*4 = 1.9308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.05/20.99 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4271*4*1.1 = 1.8792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.15/20.22 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.56+0.1491+0.0357 = 1.7448(0.1491 from adjustment between 2009 Q1 eps and 2010 Q1 eps, 0.0357 from QbQ improvement adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.21/18.52 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.56(around 4% from 1.5002), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.12/20.54 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.06/21.12 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.65/21.78 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.42/17.82 (DPS 1.3)

NESTLE latest news (English)

NESTLE Latest news (Chinese)

Cocoa price chart

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-11-0120123N/AN/A-19.50%62.18%114299434566441739705248041272994058730.54291.730819814119819011193136859297-788275579192742024470195246150499057971110432234500234500162977502012-09-3033.64%15.62%15.22%26.83%2.3446-3.363.122.420.471.14270.6940.12851.51360.60222.6%463893
2012-08-302012270.260.10.5518.46%42.68%114952223136501440083508351204952785750.51381.188019592729800751299736973409-65953639985831937340135524613679212778680247234500234500150126902012-06-3033.75%12.96%12.53%16.33%2.3293-2.812.5525.110.341.00680.54250.08241.97070.66340.1%543695
2012-04-252012165.9651.5-24.22%24.22%116412811641282068272068271580801580800.67410.674119548899733621118045786476-83684475966112738475552461646932006232399234500234500130991702012-03-3133.14%18.27%17.77%23.57%2.2785-3.573.3116.880.141.23760.65240.04121.3360.57194.2%563983
2012-02-232011457.054.81.2514.20%74.40%11889614700994101847558809870664563010.37131.9458201130110150641358582914740-65271958184490683461013223134911613014852461234500234500130851002011-12-3133.62%9.10%8.57%14.51%2.169228.67652.782.5222.140.221.10970.54390.05742.08140.67552.3%6437109
2011-11-042011357.3448.62-17.33%57.37%106104231739161380804569621063213518600.45341.500518942959306801207313764046-68698243099645897339855223133850994524467557234500234500117250002011-09-3030.27%13.49%13.01%23.00%2.1844-2.932.6718.730.291.21810.61370.08841.75740.63734.0%603596
2011-08-182011250.546.90.5516.04%40.03%10401142112874127774318881983862455380.41961.047118407358736461235775785417-60496037531924063323797223133512562745949772234500234500112325502011-06-3032.61%12.71%12.28%23.00%2.2099-2.582.3220.650.211.11230.59760.06342.04270.67132.2%5438100
2011-05-202011148.246.48-23.99%23.99%107276010727601911071911071471521471520.62750.627517795448040871011063725583-7684812412356669223877223132345661068933002234500234500112513102011-03-3133.75%18.26%17.81%23.00%2.2919-3.283.0215.890.141.10820.62750.04551.31570.56821.9%473894
2011-02-242010450.044.31.156.92%69.01%963893402631945004465744392593913980.16741.669117786817838691165345720915-61333650892614038836637220147368538216622313234500234500106228502010-12-3134.00%5.17%4.67%12.77%2.263727.14082.622.3619.190.211.08730.55950.06751.90.65521.6%523285
2010-10-282010346.042.02-19.96%62.09%99107630624261326524207401131873521390.48271.501717598878240291071185623979-68870238979458071301359201473317233036450511234500234500102242002010-09-3033.06%13.91%13.38%14.67%2.2803-2.942.6816.270.221.32060.7080.08091.55540.60875.0%533582
2010-08-262010245.039.50.517.66%42.13%105086320713501174702880881001532389520.42711.019018321008906481253685812088-578415216596338201743372014718277684392858623450023450092580602010-06-3032.98%11.82%11.18%14.74%2.1335-2.472.2117.860.121.09670.54180.03522.16740.68432.0%643892
2010-04-212010142.033.82-24.47%24.47%102048710204871706171706171387981387980.59190.591918022578661231092056643044-71020137927721020746201473071799713011823450023450082497102010-03-3133.54%17.21%16.72%18.65%2.0978-3.032.7712.70.131.34690.73030.04681.53770.60595.9%594286
2010-02-252009436.033.541.016.72%68.21%950632374423399175440261862243517930.36771.500217127177576711145538698779-5671796355172562713847892569037924655432014723450023450079495502009-12-3136.32%11.00%10.43%13.06%2.186122.59722.422.1615.690.111.08430.57710.03692.01970.66881.6%533692
2009-10-292009334.8232.2-15.46%51.49%8868122793601106411341086797602655690.34011.132516201247409341022488571860-59763640870616271523074525690245991152464093623450023450077854002009-09-3034.21%12.55%12.00%25.05%2.3247-2.552.2914.50.171.29570.66650.07161.71090.63114.5%523271
2009-08-272009235.6832.960.516.57%36.03%9228571906789104271234675854551858090.36440.7924172235188200912078621078262-5144892451891044731307532569014071699633565323450023450079261002009-06-3034.52%11.81%11.30%18.05%2.2302-2.191.9317.510.150.8180.39860.03312.34770.7013-5.1%6437126
2009-04-152009134.028.5-19.46%19.46%9839329839321304041304041003541003540.42790.427916649238503161048169923648-616754159935541529448925690105783112943698423450023450068591252009-03-3131.94%13.85%13.25%23.04%2.3625-2.632.3712.340.160.92060.46240.041.69950.6296-1.9%5736119
2009-02-262008429.7527.750.812.13%53.49%9726483877068104798441353772793408870.32951.4537166040188188211446461030457-5157555790631856963993473167039336759802569023450023450064487502008-12-3131.03%11.56%10.77%26.26%2.33518.91762.21.9414.180.110.85580.40990.02492.21940.6894-3.8%6337123
2008-10-302008328.2526.25-13.74%41.37%9618222904420113063336555875422636080.37331.1241170907298648412606001177158-44847237082810871924610331670262109160064767623450023450065073752008-09-3032.40%12.56%11.76%22.57%2.2007-1.911.6516.820.20.8380.41220.04052.81090.7376-5.1%7042129
2008-08-072008228.2526.00.512.82%27.63%1014910194259898733223491817201760650.34850.75081837309114594113511571256125-486152168433619626411531670106471423567402623450023450063315002008-06-3029.81%10.15%9.73%17.23%1.9924-2.071.8114.920.320.91230.52430.05892.77930.7354-3.0%7158126
2008-04-232008132.026.00.611914.80%14.80%92768892768812475812475894345943450.40230.4023175777610935451028327935668-729449385101872090443167019790288346050423450023450070350002008-03-3131.02%13.83%13.45%24.38%1.9907-3.112.8510.530.261.16870.61440.06471.40970.5854.5%8054103
2008-02-282007430.025.51.0656.05%52.23%856696341602852517395298338402920420.14431.24541603150939353965891869761-63725929065710072121409455828189936241583167023450023450061556252007-12-3127.92%6.56%6.13%35.56%2.130821.07792.722.4610.670.141.080.56650.03641.51570.60252.0%714988
2007-10-252007332.024.2-20.74%46.18%86144225593321535653427811159662582020.49451.10111575788949111989563873565-586225247736613181955985582818641891804664823450023450056983502007-09-3038.50%18.29%17.83%24.48%2.1241-2.52.2310.90.21.08650.67620.05341.6880.6282.3%6059109
2007-08-0920072N/AN/A0.27412.95%25.44%853440169789095591189216724091422360.30880.60661499209884227981065764460-5181441421883060412930455828111584177203810823450023450056514502007-06-3032.88%11.64%11.20%24.25%1.658-2.211.9412.420.171.15670.70760.05321.89340.65444.8%7673139
2007-04-2520071N/AN/A0.205512.49%12.49%844450844450936259362569827698270.29780.29781457290845599824746611248-63254433493985030008558282364363654946323450023450057218002007-03-3132.43%11.40%11.09%25.42%1.1201-2.72.4210.080.211.38340.89640.08091.30390.565914.4%100111184
2007-02-2720064N/AN/A0.849726N/AN/A787795327554172784363285514732642190.21951.12671458714816133899608682565-5591063580577629425981433879281763219495582823450023450058156002006-12-3134.51%9.55%9.24%29.28%0.540122.01052.382.111.810.241.19570.71120.08181.6090.616717.0%234199419

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Employee benefits (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Payables and accruals (L-1)
2012320702610243032889892248601104324283855754854668025838337215244684634146786688
20122210916102429528717482238280247110452045447673714003920221572567449103649802311
2012118506610242975876343226793239926346026948043174746401072167165698946204683283
201141846061024321088974123802524611765175734448546381542316337711321964223878321
20113725761024342486834423566675571514617524012207263140374330262294512561732034
201128431610243194870956234844977219140424241944179523408533299822770612556745155
20111883361024325587902623319330022233487694220938004239740165698235932582699408
2010410441610243189897505226534868334438053935430375595425373262981039087256623269
201033922610243218843803238915051172093822313840787279648411325999254682878595633
20102623661024321784448126494285867118450624404320664344841132675242801123956645331
2010162036102435448421452321830118336239648743615672865484113277362459935526582919
2009473796102434678602532292325751711835438137042170309484113280392009356458622228
2009327076102434647862312576440936528435976633494875347546983205831400564179493676
200922633610243176749131243783565346924522663893987305154698185116036163639898587
20091397461024311471967626819369845468423267384597675305469822932299117590883067
200843980610243242686459238142569052204594893914835680154698269020136105953904368
2008350656102436276288762399647676-5012094375993916540321395619248234712923198
2008241036102436395998582274474026-4874175844985065740321405413665380686861774
2008134626102435445741852201660504-5186715143704789940321443922667243867669134
2007426316128036005740922219431670-4466024610815063040321517916871302703550187
200735672622163553555236-46648-3584055440584604464277567727866193711651988
200726020631523596542214-40659-343287500281461036427710622516209118455629796
200715608647473501537835-49463-29769549844146075642771031462168940812548747
2006467096634234175466991941455828-33067442963145558642771072082319366758592614

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsAdministrative/Operating expensesFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associates
20123114299446671758524495620590227880
20122114952223513761604521923892725923
20121116412848747778303574117309674235
2011411889611478178925264952915449186
201131061042317597398355479178044166230
20112104011429388700909450320696910261
20111107276043955710753497316614415166
20104963893574563613348262779181527
20103991076194656634185191189827111
2010210508631731770429865362224036162
201011020487318196781785116166654375
200949506321295160536654702407424117
200938868122665158342151861921083311
200929228571881660430947382095941045
2009198393230050669643572917806118113
200849726482751967080373801894161252
200839618222552165020365190818779112
2008210149101701371239043821995323295
200819276883041363992235381594554156
2007485669618677617499394018299375178
200738614423759952979140141740643543
2007285344023182572807398818131016195
2007184445023798570622290017755917284
20064787795213115159072882196656259175

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersFood & Beverages
20123201854941140
20122196765952757
20121222089942039
20114189327999634
20113178196882846
20112182032858082
20111210286862474
20104157099806794
20103166333824743
20102170840880023
20101184403836084
20094151488799144
20093161211725601
20092162117760740
20091185476798456

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersFood & Beverages
2012333042145525
2012229076119810
2012138303174531
201142521093145
2011318799124365
201122479898891
2011139465164945
201041209864117
2010328056104596
201022206595406
2010141246129371
200942989898309
200932410282309
200922679577476
200913811392291

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING