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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

KLCI Stock - ICAP / 5108 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)313,600,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue increased 145.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.7%, eps increased 313.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 45%, got cash generated from operating, latest NAV at RM2.78, still increasing
First Support Price2.16
Second Support Price2.05
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity15.66%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin79.90%
Tax Rate8.17%
Asset Turnover0.1308
Net Asset Value Per Share2.56
Net Tangible Asset per share2.56
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.85
Cash Per Share0.76
Liquidity Current Ratio70.3143
Liquidity Quick Ratio70.3143
Liquidity Cash Ratio68.2789
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.0043
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0043
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale229.3%
Days to sell the inventory-
Days to collect the receivables11
Days to pay the payables2

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- For the nine months ended 28 February 2011, the Company recorded a profit before tax of RM9.878 million compared with a profit before tax of RM5.698 million in the corresponding period of last year

- As the company is a closed-end fund, a better indication of its performance would be the movement of its NAV. The NAV per share as at 28 February 2011 was RM2.56, compared with NAV per share of RM2.1 as at 31 May 2010

- In the third quarter ended 28 February 2011, the Company's NAV increased by 22% from 31 May 2010

- In the third quarter ended 28 February 2011, the Company recorded a profit after tax of RM5.089 million compared with RM1.225 million in the preceding quarter. The difference between the two quarter's performance is due mainly to higher dividend income in the current quarter. For the current quarter, the revenue and operating expenses were RM6.936 million and RM1.394 million respectively, compared with RM2.823 million and RM1.229 million for the preceding quarter

- The NAV per share increased by 4% in the third quarter ended 28 February 2011 to RM2.56, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.47
- The NAV per share increased by 6% in the second quarter ended 30 November 2010 to RM2.47, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.32
- The NAV per share increased by 10% in the first quarter ended 31 August 2010 to RM2.32, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.1

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KLCI Stock - IRCB / 2127 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)106,564,716 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.18/0.0066 = 27.27 (High)
Target Price0.0066*6.0 = 0.04 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.0066)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue increased 3% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 29.3%, eps decreased 224.5%(exclude RM37.74 million written down) and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 608.3%, no cash generated from operating but still got cash generated from right issue left, stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting periods are good, high latex price, USD dollar against Ringgit still weak
First Support Price0.18
Second Support Price0.13
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity-36.66%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin-126.19%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.7033
Net Asset Value Per Share0.17
Net Tangible Asset per share0.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.62
Cash Per Share0.11
Liquidity Current Ratio1.6256
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1564
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.816
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9222
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4797
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale35.7%
Days to sell the inventory76
Days to collect the receivables70
Days to pay the payables38

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The drop in revenue was mainly due to the modification of production lines in Factory 2 since the middle of 3rd quarter. The modification will give a higher level of flexibility to the production lines to switch among the production of powder, powder free natural rubber gloves and nitrile gloves

- The significant loss before taxation was mainly due to the written down of its goodwill of RM33.73 million. The Group feels it is prudent to write down the goodwill in the year under review as this does not have any negative impact on the cash flow or operation of the Group

- The high latex price and weakening US dollar have also affected the performance of the Group. Moreover, the stocks write-down of RM2.39 million and quality claims of RM1.62 million had an additional negative impact on the Group performance. However, these factors were deemed to be one-ff items

- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate PE on current price 0.18 = 27.27
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced due to exclude other income will be a loss, if use eps from FY2010Q2 to FY2011Q1 = 0.0079, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.28/2
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0021*2*1.05 = 0.0044(exclude gain from sale of land), estimate highest/lowest PE = 118.18/51.14
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0079(remain recent last 4Q cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 102.53/48.73
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0022*4 = 0.0088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 128.41/67.61

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KLCI Stock - INGRESS / 7112 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)60,672,000 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.79/0.1151 = 6.86 (High)
Target Price0.1151*5.0 = 0.58 (PE 5.0, EPS 0.1151)
DecisionNot interested unless PEP division recover from loss
Comment
Revenue decreased 3.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.5%, eps increased 0.7% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.8%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover Sukuk hence increased loan (if exclude Sukuk then is more than enough to cover all expenses), stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, all accounting periods are good, automotive division profit decreasing, power and engineering projects increased loss
First Support Price0.755
Second Support Price0.7
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity7.72%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin2.18%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover1.292
Net Asset Value Per Share2.02
Net Tangible Asset per share1.97
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.37
Cash Per Share0.95
Liquidity Current Ratio1.149
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9613
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3014
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.3737
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6233
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale4.7%
Days to sell the inventory23
Days to collect the receivables72
Days to pay the payables62

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Improvement in revenue mainly due from Automotive Division, with 25% revenue increase supported by 14% revenue improvement for both ACM Thailand and ACM Indonesia

- Lower profit before tax recorded for the current quarter is mainly due to the drop in revenue in comparison to the immediate preceeding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0274*4*1.05 = 0.1151, estimate PE on current price 0.79 = 6.86
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0272*4*1.05 = 0.1142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.36/5.95
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1288*1.05 = 0.1352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.18
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0322*4 = 0.1288(0.0322 is eps after exclude 8 million from other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.41/4.81
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0346*4 = 0.1384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.99/3.76
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4 = 0.1428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.1
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.023*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.24/3.53

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KLCI Stock - ADVENTA / 7191 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)323,905,832 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.12-0.07)/0.1378 = 14.88 (High)
Target Price1.24+0.07 = 1.31 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.1378, DPS 0.07)
DecisionNot interested unless USD currency strengthen more and latex price decrease more
Comment
Revenue increased 16.7% and is highest since FY09Q2(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.6%), eps decreased 66.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 57.9%, no cash generated from operating and cash generated from financing also not enough to cover all expenses, weakeaning liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, working capital largely decreased, all accounting periods are good, USD currency rebound since historical low but still low, latex price slowly decrease but still at a high level now
First Support Price2.1
Second Support Price1.9
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
RHB Target Price2.21 (2010-12-23)
CIMB Target Price3.14 (2010-12-29)
OSK Target Price3.04 (2011-04-01)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity14.13%
Dividend Yield3.30%
Profit Margin3.24%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.86
Net Asset Value Per Share1.42
Net Tangible Asset per share1.4
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.71
Cash Per Share0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio1.0132
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.5896
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1698
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9574
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4881
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale0.6%
Days to sell the inventory81
Days to collect the receivables73
Days to pay the payables53

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Revenue for the quarter at RM106 million is a 39% improvement over corresponding quarter last financial year as a result of encouraging results from sales in growth markets and consistent revenue from mature markets. Operating profit dipped 66% due to historical high material cost and the price adjustment lag based on previous month/previous quarter cost index

- The quarter’s revenue increased 17% and earnings fell 19% over preceding quarter. The weakening dollar reduced Ringgit income by 1.5% in the comparison quarter. Latex in Q4 2010 was averaged at RM7.22 / kg and in this quarter Q1 2011, the average is RM 9.28 / kg an increase of 28.5 %. Until we see latex price topping out or remaining stable, we expect to lag in earnings

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0265*4*1.3 = 0.1378(slowly recover), estimate PE on current price 2.12 = 14.88(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.38/12.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.055*4*0.95 = 0.209, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/8.71 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0434*4 = 0.1736*1.1(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.191, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.81/11.78 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.063*4 = 0.252, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/11.35 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.83/18.28 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.2/11.36 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.39/7.77 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.04/8.26 (DPS 0.06)

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KLCI Stock - KELADI / 6769 - 2011 Quarter 4


1997-05-28
Market Capital (Capital Size)140,287,350 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.185-0.015)/0.0196 = 8.67 (Moderate)
Target Price0.20+0.015 = 0.21 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0196, DPS 0.015)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 50% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.5%, eps decreased 16.9% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 130%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at very low level now, inventory turnover period very long time but offset by higher working capital
First Support Price0.18
Second Support Price0.17
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.34%
Dividend Yield8.11%
Profit Margin51.26%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.2624
Net Asset Value Per Share0.25
Net Tangible Asset per share0.25
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.76
Cash Per Share0.08
Liquidity Current Ratio9.7383
Liquidity Quick Ratio8.2089
Liquidity Cash Ratio5.0886
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.0624
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0573
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale190.7%
Days to sell the inventory333
Days to collect the receivables145
Days to pay the payables112

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The decrease in revenue was due to the lower sale of completed properties and the sale of properties with lower average selling prices in this financial year compared to previous year. The Group sold more shophouses, bungalow land and semi-detached houses in previous year, whereas in the current year, the types of units sold comprised mainly low and medium cost houses which contributed lower revenue. The higher profit was however attributed to better management of the development cost

- The decreased in the profit before tax is mainly due to decrease in profit from property development activities and increase in administrative expenses for the quarter

- In current quarter, the profit for property development activities was derived mainly from 5 phases of ongoing project of Taman Lagenda while for the preceding quarter there were 7 phases. Furthermore, there were increased provisions for annual administrative expenses for last quarter of financial year ended 31 January 2011. Therefore, the profit in current quarter appeared lower than the immediate preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0212+0.018)/2 = 0.0196, estimate PE on current price 0.175 = 8.67(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.017(recent 4 quarters eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.06/9.41 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*0.9 = 0.016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.19/9.06 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0178 (based on last year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.99/7.87 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0155 (13% drop from 0.0178), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10/9.03 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0218+0.0289+0.019)/3 = 0.0232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.6 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.5/10.48 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0042*4 = 0.0168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.52/7.74 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.11/8.06 (DPS 0.015)

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KLCI Stock - ASIABIO / 0150 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)21,420,000 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.06/0.0017 = 35.29 (High)
Target Price0.0017*4.0 = 0.01 (PE 4.0, EPS 0.0017)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit stabilize more
Comment
Revenue decreased 7.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 77.8%, eps decreased 166.7% and is third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 260%, no cash generated from operating and cash generated from financing activity also finish spent on investing activities, weakeaning liquidity but still at high level now, higher gearing ratio but still at low level now, receivables turnover period getting longer but working capital no increase, IT division back to contribution again
First Support Price0.06
Second Support Price0.055
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity0.64%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin-1.95%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.1363
Net Asset Value Per Share0.15
Net Tangible Asset per share0.11
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.55
Cash Per Share0.0
Liquidity Current Ratio3.4741
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.4065
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7157
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.105
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0892
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale57.2%
Days to sell the inventory7
Days to collect the receivables227
Days to pay the payables87

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The ABT Group achieved a total comprehensive income for the year of approximately RM0.99 million on the back of a consolidated revenue of RM6.26 million due mainly to the dividend received from its incubatees. As the Group is involved in incubation activities especially on high technology areas, it hold investments particularly in start-ups. In view thereof, its performance is subjected to various volatilities

- Revenue for the period was mainly derived from IT services revenue of eCompazz, our new incubate whilst the slight loss incurred is due to relocation expenditure for the Group's new incubation centre in Pandamaran

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.001+0.0023)/2 = 0.0017, estimate PE on current price 0.06 = 35.29
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0042, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.24/13.1
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0042, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.05/14.29
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0036+0.0006(average of eps per quarter in year 2009)*4 = 0.006, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.17/10.08

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KLCI Stock - HAIO / 7668 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)440,774,814 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.18-0.04)/0.1336 = 16.02 (High)
Target Price1.07+0.04 = 1.11 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.1336, DPS 0.04)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue increased 9.5% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 56.1%, eps increased 3.6% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 64.7%, cash generated from operating is not enough to cover dividend, weaker liquidity ratio but still at high level now, higher gearing ratio but still at low level now, all accounting periods are good, except manufacture division, all division higher revenue
First Support Price2.07
Second Support Price1.8
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
OSK Target Price1.93 (2011-03-24)
RHB Target Price1.35 (2011-03-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.46%
Dividend Yield7.57%
Profit Margin15.66%
Tax Rate25.80%
Asset Turnover1.015
Net Asset Value Per Share0.99
Net Tangible Asset per share0.99
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.29
Cash Per Share0.4
Liquidity Current Ratio3.3676
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.3458
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.8158
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2807
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2125
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale39.4%
Days to sell the inventory73
Days to collect the receivables32
Days to pay the payables49
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The drop in revenue and profit was mainly due to lower contribution by its principal subsidiary, the multi-level marketing(“MLM”) division

- However, the retail division had registered higher revenue, increase by about 37% and pre-tax profit increase by almost 85% due to strong festive sale during the Chinese Lunar New Year, as compared to last year, which fell in the fourth quarter of the last financial year. Whereas the higher external revenue generated from the wholesale division has been offset by the lower inter-segment sales from the MLM division, which had resulted in lower pre-tax profit

- Higher revenue mainly due to higher contribution from the retail division and the recovery of MLM division‟s sales. The MLM division has been stepping up its efforts in product training programs and promotional activities which has helped the division to pull up its sales

- Nevertheless, due to the higher personnel and operating costs during the festive season incurred in the third quarter, the pre-tax profit did not improve much as compared with the immediate preceding quarter despite higher revenue achieved

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0318*4*1.05 = 0.1336, estimate PE on current price 2.62 = 16.02(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0307*4*0.95 = 0.1167, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.91/18.25 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0391*4 = 0.1564, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.01/17.46 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0714*4 = 0.2856*1.1(10% QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.16/8.78 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3729, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.42/9.17 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.78/7.44(DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)

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KLCI Stock - KENCANA / 5122 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,053,080,408 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.75-0.0050)/0.1298 = 21.15 (High)
Target Price2.73+0.0050 = 2.73 (PE 21.0, EPS 0.1298, DPS 0.0050)
DecisionNot buy unless price below 2.6
Comment
Revenue increased 4.6% and is highest since FY08Q3(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 40.9%), eps decreased 12.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.7%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover investing expenses hence generated cash from financing activities, stronger liquidity ratio but still at weak level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, payables turnover period still long time
First Support Price2.6
Second Support Price2.45
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Maybank Target Price3.1 (2011-01-06)
Affin Target Price3.21 (2011-01-27)
TA Target Price3.7 (2011-03-18)
CIMB Target Price3.4 (2011-03-30)
RHB Target Price3.5 (2011-03-30)
AMMB Target Price3.4 (2011-04-27)
MIDF Target Price3.16 (2011-05-16)
OSK Target Price3.17 (2011-05-16)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity21.83%
Dividend Yield0.18%
Profit Margin17.59%
Tax Rate18.36%
Asset Turnover0.6992
Net Asset Value Per Share0.47
Net Tangible Asset per share0.45
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share5.64
Cash Per Share0.17
Liquidity Current Ratio0.9174
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8823
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4372
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.0734
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5172
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-4.8%
Days to sell the inventory9
Days to collect the receivables93
Days to pay the payables171

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to progress achieved for contracts in hand and better management of relevant costs as well as contribution from drilling services

- The decrease in profit before tax for the current quarter was mainly due to higher contract costs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.0314+0.0276)*2*1.1 = 0.1298, estimate PE on current price 2.75 = 21.15(DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0563*2*1.1 = 0.1239, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.85/17.39 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0249*4*1.1 = 0.1096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.39/14.92 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.19/18.26 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.02*4 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.94/15.69 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0339*4 = 0.1356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.47/9.92 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1307, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/16.03 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0324*4 = 0.1296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.32/12.77 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0301*4 = 0.1204, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.07/9.34 (DPS 0.005)

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Monday, May 30, 2011

KLCI Stock - YTLPOWR / 6742 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)15,790,380,607 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.17-0.075)/0.1464 = 14.31 (High)
Target Price2.05+0.075 = 2.12 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1464, DPS 0.075)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue decreased 6.7% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.4%, eps increased 29.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.2%, cash generated from operating still more than enough to cover financing activities but not enough for investing activities, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, all accounting periods are good, better profit margin, issue new warrants
First Support Price2.15
Second Support Price2.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
RHB Target Price2.57 (2011-03-21)
HwangDBS Target Price2.75 (2011-03-29)
Credit Suisse Target Price1.82 (2011-03-30)
HLG Target Price2.7 (2011-04-05)
AMMB Target Price2.42 (2011-05-13)
ECM Target Price2.36 (2011-05-27)
MIDF Target Price2.8 (2011-05-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.66%
Dividend Yield4.32%
Profit Margin11.99%
Tax Rate24.07%
Asset Turnover0.4034
Net Asset Value Per Share1.04
Net Tangible Asset per share0.23
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share9.65
Cash Per Share0.93
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1506
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0608
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.8193
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.3061
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7689
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale9.5%
Days to sell the inventory24
Days to collect the receivables51
Days to pay the payables77

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in Group pbt were principally attributable to better performance recorded by the foreign subsidiaries

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.04+0.0332)*2 = 0.1464(exclude profit from minority interest), estimate PE on current price 2.17 = 14.31(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1717*1.1 = 0.1889, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.65/10.85 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1717*1.1 = 0.1889, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.82/11.12 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0404*4 = 0.1616, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/12.56 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0356*4 = 0.1424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.1/14.04 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0328*4 = 0.1312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.23/15.02 (DPS 0.15)
- No Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0335*4 = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/14.48 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.6/12.72 (DPS 0.15)

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KLCI Stock - SAPCRES / 8575 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,928,148,649 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.86-0.085)/0.1892 = 19.95 (High)
Target Price3.22+0.085 = 3.30 (PE 17.0, EPS 0.1892, DPS 0.085)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue increase more
Comment
Revenue decreased 39.9% but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.9%, eps increased 32.3% and is fourth consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 77.3%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover financing activities but not enough for investing activities, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, better gearing ratio but still at very high level now, better receivables and payables turnover period but still long time
First Support Price3.6
Second Support Price3.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
ECM Target Price4.2 (2011-01-17)
CIMB Target Price5.12 (2011-03-29)
Kenanga Target Price4.28 (2011-03-29)
Maybank Target Price4.2 (2011-03-29)
MIDF Target Price4 (2011-03-29)
OSK Target Price4.61 (2011-04-26)
RHB Target Price4.61 (2011-04-28)
AMMB Target Price4.75 (2011-05-19)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity15.98%
Dividend Yield2.20%
Profit Margin18.45%
Tax Rate13.41%
Asset Turnover0.8654
Net Asset Value Per Share0.87
Net Tangible Asset per share0.75
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.73
Cash Per Share0.6
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2457
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2159
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4224
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.0194
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6075
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale14.0%
Days to sell the inventory7
Days to collect the receivables165
Days to pay the payables194

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group registered a decrease in revenue from RM1.015 billion in the preceding third quarter to RM610.0 million in the current quarter mainly due to lower activities in the Installation of Pipeline and Facilities (“IPF”) and drilling divisions

- However, profit before tax increased from RM100.1 million in the previous quarter to RM112.5 million in the current quarter mainly due to improved performance in the operations and maintenance and marine services divisions

- Group revenue for the current quarter increased by 26% to RM610.0 million compared to last year's corresponding fourth quarter of RM484.5 million mainly due to higher activities in the IPF and operations and maintenance divisions

- Correspondingly, profit before tax increased by 55% from RM72.5 million to RM112.5 million principally due to higher contribution from the IPF division and improved performance in the marine services division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.043*4*1.1 = 0.1892, estimate PE on current price 3.86 = 19.95(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.043*4*1.1 = 0.1892, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.24/14.64 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0417*4*1.05 = 0.1751, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.22/12.79 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1345(maintain same eps as year 2010 due to revenue decreased but profit increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.77/15.54 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1345*0.95 = 0.1278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/14.08 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0422*4*0.8 = 0.135, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/15.48 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0414*4*0.9 = 0.149, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.71/11.01 (DPS 0.06)

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KLCI Stock - SPSETIA / 8664 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)7,214,017,972 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.75

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(4.08-0.2)/0.1887 = 20.56 (Moderate)
Target Price4.53+0.2 = 4.73 (PE 24.0, EPS 0.1887, DPS 0.2)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 42.6%, eps decreased 21% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 53.5%, cash generated from operating is neither enough to cover investing nor financing activities, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all turnover periods getting shorter
First Support Price4.0
Second Support Price3.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price5.37 (2011-01-18)
MIDF Target Price4 (2011-01-18)
Kenanga Target Price5.07 (2011-02-07)
RHB Target Price4.87 (2011-03-03)
ECM Target Price4 (2011-03-18)
TA Target Price4.63 (2011-03-18)
BIMB Target Price4.05 (2011-03-21)
Maybank Target Price4.75 (2011-04-15)
OSK Target Price4.82 (2011-04-15)
AMMB Target Price5.41 (2011-05-16)
HwangDBS Target Price5.3 (2011-05-23)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.80%
Dividend Yield4.90%
Profit Margin16.84%
Tax Rate29.02%
Asset Turnover0.4638
Net Asset Value Per Share2.07
Net Tangible Asset per share2.07
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.93
Cash Per Share0.57
Liquidity Current Ratio2.6063
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5863
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.728
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.8164
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4494
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale71.7%
Days to sell the inventory203
Days to collect the receivables135
Days to pay the payables117

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The current period profit after taxation was arrived at after expensing approximately RM6 million for employee share options granted pursuant to the Company’s ESOS which was launched in May 2009. Selling and marketing expenses include the cost of financial incentives of RM16 million borne by the Group pursuant to its successful 5/95, Best for the Best and Invest Setiahomes campaigns

- The Group’s profit and revenue were principally derived from its property development activities carried out in the Klang Valley, Johor Bahru and Penang. Ongoing projects which contributed to the Group’s profit and revenue include Setia Alam and Setia Eco-Park at Shah Alam, Setia Walk at Pusat Bandar Puchong, Setia Sky Residences at Jalan Tun Razak, Bukit Indah, Setia Indah, Setia Tropika and Setia Eco Gardens in Johor Bahru, Setia Pearl Island and Setia Vista in Penang. Apart from property development, the Group’s construction and wood-based manufacturing activities also contributed to the earnings achieved

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1287*2*1.1 = 0.2831/3*2 = 0.1887, estimate PE on current price 4.08 = 20.56(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4*1.1 = 0.22(assume investment gain only RM6 million), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.59/23.64 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0439(after exclude RM48 million other income and used 27% VAT)*4*1.1 = 0.1932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.47/22.31 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1841 (10% increase from 0.1674), estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.06/20.53 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1724 (3% increase from 0.1674), estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.01/20.19 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.25/21.5 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.63/21 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.56/22.81 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.69/16.19 (DPS 0.17)

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KLCI Stock - TM / 4863 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)13,880,319,682 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.88-0.261)/0.1919 = 18.86 (High)
Target Price3.07+0.261 = 3.33 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.1919, DPS 0.261)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue decreased 7.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.1%, eps decreased 59.3% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.1%, cash generated from operating after deduct all expenses still got around 7% extra, better liquidity ratio at low level now, better gearing ratio at high level now, higher receivables but offset by more working capital, better payables period, global division reported weaker result
First Support Price3.6
Second Support Price3.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
JF Apex Target Price3.76 (2010-11-30)
Citi Target Price3.22 (2011-01-24)
Nomura Target Price4.1 (2011-01-25)
HwangDBS Target Price3.35 (2011-02-28)
Kenanga Target Price4 (2011-02-28)
RHB Target Price3.84 (2011-02-28)
TA Target Price4.23 (2011-02-28)
Maybank Target Price4.4 (2011-03-14)
AMMB Target Price4 (2011-04-04)
OSK Target Price3.78 (2011-05-23)
CIMB Target Price5.1 (2011-05-24)
ECM Target Price3.7 (2011-05-26)
HLG Target Price4.2 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price4.05 (2011-05-26)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity14.53%
Dividend Yield6.73%
Profit Margin10.58%
Tax Rate23.14%
Asset Turnover0.4222
Net Asset Value Per Share2.21
Net Tangible Asset per share2.12
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.84
Cash Per Share1.24
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8752
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.824
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1257
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.6188
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6133
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale39.1%
Days to sell the inventory12
Days to collect the receivables110
Days to pay the payables233

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue as compared to FY09Q4 mainly attributed from data, Internet and multimedia services, which mitigated the impact of lower revenue from voice and other telecommunications related services

- Data revenue increased by 6.8% as compared to the corresponding quarter 2010 arising from demand for higher bandwidth services

- Internet and multimedia services registered higher revenue by 12.7% in the current quarter arising from increased in broadband customers in the current quarter from the corresponding quarter 2010

- Operating profit before finance cost of RM231.6 million decreased by 13.5% from RM267.6 million recorded in the same quarter last year primarily attributed to higher depreciation and amortisation, lower other operating income and other gains

- Group profit after tax and non-controlling interests (PATAMI) decreased by 32.8% to RM163.3 million as compared to RM242.9 million in the corresponding quarter in 2010. This was mainly attributed to higher operating costs and lower unrealised exchange gains on translation of foreign currency borrowings

- Lower revenue as compared to FY10Q3 primarily due to lower revenue from data services, other telecommunications related services and non-telecommunications related services net of increase in Internet and multimedia services

- Operating profit before finance cost decreased by 43.3% to RM231.6 million as compared to RM408.3 million recorded in the preceding quarter mainly due to lower other gains on disposal of investments. The effect of lower operating revenue was offset by lower operating costs

- Group profit after tax and non-controlling interests (PATAMI) decreased from RM400.7 million recorded in the preceding quarter to RM163.3 million in the current quarter mainly due to lower other gains and higher taxation expense as the preceding quarter included RM57.2 million deferred tax income in respect of prior year. Higher unrealised foreign exchange gain on translation of foreign currency borrowings in the current quarter partially offset the reduction between the two periods

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0457*4*1.05 = 0.1919, estimate PE on current price 3.88 = 18.86(DPS 0.261)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0543*4 = 0.2172(exclude one time income and use average foreign exchange gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.17/14.09 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4*0.95 = 0.1814, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.3/16.81 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0606(average of recent 4Q eps)*4 = 0.2424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.9/12.46 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0479*4 = 0.1916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.38/14.87 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0505*4 = 0.202, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.54/13.71(DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/13.85 (DPS 0.22)

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KLCI Stock - HSL / 6238 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,013,856,240 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.74-0.026)/0.1487 = 11.53 (Moderate)
Target Price2.08+0.026 = 2.11 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1487, DPS 0.026)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 17.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.8%, eps decreased 19.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 29.7%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, moderate gearing ratio, receivables and payables periods are high
First Support Price1.63
Second Support Price1.54
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Maybank Target Price2.3 (2011-01-25)
AMMB Target Price2.3 (2011-05-24)
HLG Target Price2.44 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price2.3 (2011-05-26)
OSK Target Price2.5 (2011-05-26)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity23.03%
Dividend Yield1.38%
Profit Margin19.04%
Tax Rate24.92%
Asset Turnover0.8552
Net Asset Value Per Share0.65
Net Tangible Asset per share0.65
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.62
Cash Per Share0.22
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8072
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6415
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.528
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.687
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4071
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale36.2%
Days to sell the inventory34
Days to collect the receivables182
Days to pay the payables197

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1533*0.97 = 0.1487, estimate PE on current price 1.74 = 11.53(DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0697*2*1.1 = 0.1533, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.49/11.05 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0574*2*1.1 = 0.1263, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.08/11.99 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.95/11.49 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.88/11.05 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.96/8.75 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0233*4 = 0.0932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/9.7 (DPS 0.016)

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