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Saturday, May 14, 2011

KLCI Stock - TGUAN / 7034 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)109,412,680 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.04-0.05)/0.2129 = 4.65 (Moderate)
Target Price1.28+0.05 = 1.33 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.2129, DPS 0.05)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue increased 12.7% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 27.4%, eps increased 109.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 129.8%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, lower liquidity ratio at moderate level now, gearing ratio increased at below moderate level now, all accounting periods are good
First Support Price1.0
Second Support Price0.92
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.37%
Dividend Yield4.81%
Profit Margin6.05%
Tax Rate15.48%
Asset Turnover1.5131
Net Asset Value Per Share2.07
Net Tangible Asset per share2.07
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.44
Cash Per Share0.53
Liquidity Current Ratio2.2814
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4227
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6044
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4856
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3269
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale24.3%
Days to sell the inventory62
Days to collect the receivables54
Days to pay the payables53

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group registered a revenue for the twelve months ended 31 December 2010 of RM488.434 million as compared with RM408.778 million for the twelve months ended 31 December 2009, an increase of 19.49%. The increase in revenues were mainly due to the higher average prices of raw materials which translated to higher selling prices as well as the increase in export volume of the group's products compared to the corresponding period in 2009

- Group profit before taxation for the quarter ended 31 December 2010 was RM22.727 million, an increase of 22.58% over the RM18.541 million registered in the preceding year corresponding quarter in 2009

- For the three months fourth quarter ended 31 December 2010, Group revenue grew by 27.43% from RM109.458 million to RM139.486 million as compared to the corresponding quarter in 2009. The increase in revenues were mainly due to the higher average prices of raw materials which translated to higher selling prices as well as the increase in export volume of the group's products compared to the corresponding period in 2009

- Profit before taxation for the three months fourth quarter increased by 119.42% from RM3.846 million to RM8.439 million as compared to the corresponding quarter in 2009. The increase in profit before taxation was mainly due to the more stable operating environments, higher revenue and better margins compared to the corresponding period in 2009

- The revenue for the quarter ended 31 December 2010 increased by RM15.699 million or 12.68% and profit before taxation increased by RM4.889 million or 137.72% as compared to the preceding quarter. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the higher demand for the group's plastic packaging products during the current quarter compared to the preceding quarter. The increase in profit before taxation was mainly due to increase in revenue and the effects of certain provisions made compared to the preceeding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1935*1.1 = 0.2129, estimate PE on current price 1.04 = 4.65(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.045*4 = 0.18(profit margin around 4%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.89 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.19(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1351*1.1 = 0.1486 (10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.81/4.98 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1351 (revenue growth but cost also increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.92/5.26 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/5.45 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1138, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.63 (DPS 0.02)

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