KLCI Stock - PETGAS / 6033 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	22,557,543,831 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(11.4-0.5)/0.5392 = 20.22 (High)
Target Price	10.78+0.5 = 11.28 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.5392, DPS 0.5)
Decision	Not interested unless profit margin increase
Comment	Revenue decreased 0.2% but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.1%, eps decreased 33.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 32.4%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, weakening liquidity ratio but still at very strong level now, better gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting periods are good, gas price increasing
First Support Price	11.2
Second Support Price	11.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	13.6 (2010-12-01)
Maybank Target Price	14.1 (2010-12-01)
RHB Target Price	13.51 (2010-12-01)
ECM Target Price	14.14 (2011-02-23)
MIDF Target Price	13.1 (2011-02-23)
TA Target Price	14.2 (2011-02-23)
HwangDBS Target Price	13.5 (2011-05-12)
OSK Target Price	13.82 (2011-05-20)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	16.90%
Dividend Yield	4.39%
Profit Margin	39.36%
Tax Rate	24.00%
Asset Turnover	0.3354
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.28
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.28
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.62
Cash Per Share	1.53
Liquidity Current Ratio	7.7439
Liquidity Quick Ratio	7.5218
Liquidity Cash Ratio	6.7036
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2356
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1898
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	86.5%
Days to sell the inventory	20
Days to collect the receivables	38
Days to pay the payables	68

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The increase revenue was due to higher gas transportation revenue and utilities sales

- The increase in profit before tax for the quarter ended and year ended 31 March 2011 respectively, was mainly due to higher revenue

- Decrease of profit before tax for the current quarter was mainly due to higher cost of revenue

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1348*4 = 0.5392, estimate PE on current price 11.4 = 20.22(DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6266, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.65/16.41 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5331*0.95 = 0.5064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.63/19.31 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4612(3% dropped from 0.4755), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.47/19.8 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5(0.37+0.13), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.2/18.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.26 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.47 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/19.15 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/18.94 (DPS 0.05)

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