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Wednesday, May 25, 2011

KLCI Stock - PELIKAN / 5231 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)528,179,942 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.03-0.02)/0.081 = 12.47 (High)
Target Price0.73+0.02 = 0.75 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.081, DPS 0.02)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue decreased 8.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 82.6%, eps decreased 148.1% and is third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 49.5%, cash generated from operating not even enough to cover 5% of repayment of bank borrowings, weakeaning liquidity ratio at low level now, better gearing ratio but still at high level now, lower working capital, inventory and receivables also decreased which may lead to lower revenue, all accounting periods are good, Europe index increasing
First Support Price1.0
Second Support Price0.92
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
MIDF Target Price1.65 (2010-11-25)
HwangDBS Target Price1.2 (2011-02-10)
ECM Target Price1 (2011-02-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.25%
Dividend Yield1.94%
Profit Margin-0.12%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.9187
Net Asset Value Per Share1.65
Net Tangible Asset per share1.44
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.83
Cash Per Share0.25
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4394
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8297
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2092
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2482
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5438
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale15.8%
Days to sell the inventory79
Days to collect the receivables80
Days to pay the payables76

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s revenue for the current financial quarter was RM487.8 million compared to RM261.3 million for the corresponding quarter last year as a result of the full consolidation of the newly acquired Herlitz business. The strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia (“RM”) against the Group’s major trade currencies such as Euro and United States Dollar (“USD”) has resulted in lower translation of revenues into the reporting currency. The loss before tax for the current quarter was RM0.6million compared to RM10.2 million loss for the corresponding quarter last year

- The Group’s revenue for the financial year was RM1.79 billion as compared to RM1.20 billion last year. Profit before tax for the year was RM167.6 million against RM50.1 million last year after taking into consideration the negative goodwill and provision for related expenses recognised in this year in connection to the acquisition of Herlitz AG and related assets

- The total assets and total liabilities of the Group increased from 31 December 2009 to 31 December 2010 due mainly to the consolidation of Herlitz and related assets in 2010. The acquisitions were financed by external borrowings. The Group paid down RM79million borrowings (net) in the last quarter of 2010

- In the current quarter, the Group’s revenue reduced to RM487.8 million compared to RM534.0 million in the preceding quarter. The reduction is mainly due to sales seasonality after the end of “back to school” season. Lower sales volume resulted in loss before tax in the fourth quarter RM0.6 million as compared to profit before tax of RM26.2 million in the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.09*0.9 = 0.081, estimate PE on current price 1.03 = 12.47(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.09, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.56/12.67 (DPS 0.02)

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