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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

KLCI Stock - INGRESS / 7112 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)60,672,000 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.79/0.1151 = 6.86 (High)
Target Price0.1151*5.0 = 0.58 (PE 5.0, EPS 0.1151)
DecisionNot interested unless PEP division recover from loss
Revenue decreased 3.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.5%, eps increased 0.7% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.8%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover Sukuk hence increased loan (if exclude Sukuk then is more than enough to cover all expenses), stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, all accounting periods are good, automotive division profit decreasing, power and engineering projects increased loss
First Support Price0.755
Second Support Price0.7
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity7.72%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin2.18%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover1.292
Net Asset Value Per Share2.02
Net Tangible Asset per share1.97
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.37
Cash Per Share0.95
Liquidity Current Ratio1.149
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9613
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3014
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.3737
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6233
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale4.7%
Days to sell the inventory23
Days to collect the receivables72
Days to pay the payables62

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Improvement in revenue mainly due from Automotive Division, with 25% revenue increase supported by 14% revenue improvement for both ACM Thailand and ACM Indonesia

- Lower profit before tax recorded for the current quarter is mainly due to the drop in revenue in comparison to the immediate preceeding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0274*4*1.05 = 0.1151, estimate PE on current price 0.79 = 6.86
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0272*4*1.05 = 0.1142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.36/5.95
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1288*1.05 = 0.1352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.18
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0322*4 = 0.1288(0.0322 is eps after exclude 8 million from other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.41/4.81
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0346*4 = 0.1384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.99/3.76
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4 = 0.1428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.1
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.023*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.24/3.53

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