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Monday, May 30, 2011

KLCI Stock - SAPCRES / 8575 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,928,148,649 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.86-0.085)/0.1892 = 19.95 (High)
Target Price3.22+0.085 = 3.30 (PE 17.0, EPS 0.1892, DPS 0.085)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue increase more
Revenue decreased 39.9% but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.9%, eps increased 32.3% and is fourth consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 77.3%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover financing activities but not enough for investing activities, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, better gearing ratio but still at very high level now, better receivables and payables turnover period but still long time
First Support Price3.6
Second Support Price3.4

Research House
ECM Target Price4.2 (2011-01-17)
CIMB Target Price5.12 (2011-03-29)
Kenanga Target Price4.28 (2011-03-29)
Maybank Target Price4.2 (2011-03-29)
MIDF Target Price4 (2011-03-29)
OSK Target Price4.61 (2011-04-26)
RHB Target Price4.61 (2011-04-28)
AMMB Target Price4.75 (2011-05-19)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity15.98%
Dividend Yield2.20%
Profit Margin18.45%
Tax Rate13.41%
Asset Turnover0.8654
Net Asset Value Per Share0.87
Net Tangible Asset per share0.75
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.73
Cash Per Share0.6
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2457
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2159
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4224
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.0194
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6075
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale14.0%
Days to sell the inventory7
Days to collect the receivables165
Days to pay the payables194

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group registered a decrease in revenue from RM1.015 billion in the preceding third quarter to RM610.0 million in the current quarter mainly due to lower activities in the Installation of Pipeline and Facilities (“IPF”) and drilling divisions

- However, profit before tax increased from RM100.1 million in the previous quarter to RM112.5 million in the current quarter mainly due to improved performance in the operations and maintenance and marine services divisions

- Group revenue for the current quarter increased by 26% to RM610.0 million compared to last year's corresponding fourth quarter of RM484.5 million mainly due to higher activities in the IPF and operations and maintenance divisions

- Correspondingly, profit before tax increased by 55% from RM72.5 million to RM112.5 million principally due to higher contribution from the IPF division and improved performance in the marine services division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.043*4*1.1 = 0.1892, estimate PE on current price 3.86 = 19.95(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.043*4*1.1 = 0.1892, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.24/14.64 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0417*4*1.05 = 0.1751, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.22/12.79 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1345(maintain same eps as year 2010 due to revenue decreased but profit increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.77/15.54 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1345*0.95 = 0.1278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/14.08 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0422*4*0.8 = 0.135, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/15.48 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0414*4*0.9 = 0.149, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.71/11.01 (DPS 0.06)

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