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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,427,240,719 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.18-0.1)/0.282 = 10.92 (High)
Target Price2.82+0.1 = 2.92 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.282, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue increased 6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.1%, eps increased 2.1% and is second consecutive quarter increasing but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 24.3%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing activities but not for investing activities, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, better gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting periods are good, 100% Magnum
First Support Price3.0
Second Support Price2.75

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.36%
Dividend Yield3.14%
Profit Margin16.27%
Tax Rate17.63%
Asset Turnover0.6073
Net Asset Value Per Share2.2
Net Tangible Asset per share-0.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share-5.44
Cash Per Share0.85
Liquidity Current Ratio2.379
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.372
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.231
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2771
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5084
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale28.4%
Days to sell the inventory1
Days to collect the receivables42
Days to pay the payables90

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher gaming sales, lower payout ratio and lower finance cost have contributed primarily to the increase in the results

- Financial Services Division increased pretax mainly due to improved underwriting performance as a result of tightening of underwriting especially in the non-performing classes and greater emphasis on risk management of the insurance business

- Higher pbt in Stockbroking Division mainly due to increase in proprietary trading income and gain on fair value adjustment on investments

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.282, estimate PE on current price 3.18 = 10.92(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

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