KLCI Stock - PETDAG / 5681 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	16,213,169,280 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(16.32-1)/0.966 = 15.86 (Moderate)
Target Price	15.46+1.0 = 16.46 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.966, DPS 1.0)
Decision	Not buy unless price below 15.5
Comment	Revenue increased 7.6% and is continuous increasing since FY09Q4 (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 17.8%), eps decreased 3.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.8%, cash generated from operating still got around 10% extra after deduct all expenses, better liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting periods are good, high crude oil price
First Support Price	15.0
Second Support Price	14.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

CIMB Target Price	15.4 (2011-02-17)
TA Target Price	14.4 (2011-02-17)
HwangDBS Target Price	12.75 (2011-05-25)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	18.00%
Dividend Yield	3.98%
Profit Margin	4.94%
Tax Rate	27.18%
Asset Turnover	2.7423
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.83
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.83
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.17
Cash Per Share	1.03
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.3103
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.0693
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.297
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.7621
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4307
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	4.6%
Days to sell the inventory	14
Days to collect the receivables	42
Days to pay the payables	55

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The increases resulted from higher product average selling prices and higher sales volume

- Lower pbt due to higher operating expenditures

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.23*4*1.05 = 0.966, estimate PE on current price 12.08 = 13.18(DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.03 = 0.852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.79/11.98 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7579*1.05 = 0.7958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.2/11.96 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.7579*0.95 = 0.72(5% drop due to lower gross profit compared to the preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.81/11.26 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.63/10.84 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)

PETDAG latest news (English)

PETDAG latest news (Chinese)