KLCI Stock - LEADER / 4529 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	360,078,387 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(0.825-0.015)/0.0902 = 8.98 (High)
Target Price	0.72+0.015 = 0.74 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.0902, DPS 0.015)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue decreased 3.2% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.8%, eps decreased 50.8% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 28.7%, no cash generated from operating hence increase borrowing is necessary, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting periods are good, lower profit margin
First Support Price	0.79
Second Support Price	0.75
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

OSK Target Price	1.2 (2010-11-29)
TA Target Price	1.46 (2011-04-06)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	7.41%
Dividend Yield	1.82%
Profit Margin	1.17%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	1.8079
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.3
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.3
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.65
Cash Per Share	0.34
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.4537
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.9027
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2808
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.2456
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5138
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	9.7%
Days to sell the inventory	44
Days to collect the receivables	48
Days to pay the payables	35

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group registered a revenue of RM 624.27 million for the current reporting quarter ended 31 December 2010, an increase of 19.76% as compared to RM521.27 million for the corresponding quarter ended 31 December 2009. The Cable and Wire division recorded a higher revenue mainly due to increased in sales quantity and surge in metal prices in the current reporting quarter

- The Group recorded a lower profit before taxation of RM7.31 million in the current reporting quarter as compared to RM14.63 million for the corresponding quarter ended 31 December 2009

- The Group’s profit before taxation for the current reporting quarter ended 31 December 2010 was 62.16% lower at RM7.31 million as compared to RM19.32 million for the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0564*2*0.8 = 0.0902, estimate PE on current price 0.825 = 8.98(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.034*4*0.9 = 0.1224, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.52/6.41 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0575*2 = 0.115, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.87/6.78 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1041, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.5/7.4 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0261*4 = 0.1044, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.77/7.71 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0363*4 = 0.1452, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.44/4.92 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.032*4 = 0.128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.29/5.35 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/5.2 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0289*4 = 0.1156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.97/3.16 (DPS 0.03)

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