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Friday, September 30, 2011

KLCI Stock - DAYA / 0091 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)191,865,367 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.16-0.0024)/0.0164 = 9.61 (High)
Target Price0.13+0.0024 = 0.13 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.0164, DPS 0.0024)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 0.18
Comment
Revenue increased 8.9% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 43%, eps decreased 51% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.3%, no cash generate from operating due to increased current assets however cash generated from financing activities enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, slightly high receivables but offset by higher working capital, lower profit margin
First Support Price0.16
Second Support Price0.145
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.24%
Dividend Yield1.50%
Profit Margin9.66%
Tax Rate29.26%
Asset Turnover0.633
Net Asset Value Per Share0.18
Net Tangible Asset per share0.11
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.64
Cash Per Share0.04
Liquidity Current Ratio1.9736
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8035
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6045
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6322
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3866
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale36.6%
Days to sell the inventory26
Days to collect the receivables141
Days to pay the payables89

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The higher revenue was mainly due to the increase in revenue from oil & gas and technical services segments

- The improved performance was mainly attributable to the profit contributed by oil & gas segment with the acquisition of Daya OCI Sdn Bhd but offset with lower profits from polymer segment due to the weaker market condition in the polymer industry and technical services segments due to the nature of lower margin in the technical services industry

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0041*4 = 0.0164, estimate PE on current price 0.16 = 9.61(DPS 0.0024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0216*0.9 = 0.0194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.99/8.12 (DPS 0.0024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0049*4*1.1 = 0.0216, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.16/9.61 (DPS 0.0024)

DAYA latest news (English)

DAYA latest news (Chinese)



Thursday, September 29, 2011

KLCI Stock - KFC / 3492 - 2011 Quarter 2

KFC HOLDINGS (M) BERHAD

Company Description
KFC HOLDINGS (MALAYSIA) BERHAD is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates in three segments, namely restaurants, integrated poultry and ancillary. Its integrated poultry operations include breeder farms and hatchery, feed mills, poultry farms, contract broiler farming, and processing and further processing plants. Its ancillary support system encompasses sauce manufacturing, as well as bakery and commissary operations. As of December 31, 2009, the Company operated 475 restaurants across Malaysia, 77 stores in Singapore, nine restaurants in Brunei and 72 restaurants in India. In 2009, the Company had a total of 43 RasaMas restaurants in Malaysia and Brunei and 35 Kedai Ayamas stores across Malaysia. On December 15, 2009, the Company had acquired the entire issued and paid-up capital of Rasamas Terminal Larkin Sdn Bhd and Rasamas Melaka Sdn Bhd.

Company Info
Listing Date1988-11-11
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,617,777,087 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryRestaurants
Sub IndustryPoultry
Websitehttp://www.kfcholdings.com.my

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.3-0.085)/0.2002 = 16.06 (High)
Target Price3.20+0.085 = 3.29 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2002, DPS 0.085)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price got uptrend signal
Comment
Revenue increased 7.1% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.8%, eps increased 0.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.1%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but remaining not enough for investing expenses hence spent 21% of Group cash to cover, slightly lower liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price3.17
Second Support Price3.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
BIMB Target Price4.3 (2011-02-22)
Maybank Target Price3.97 (2011-02-22)
AMMB Target Price4.15 (2011-03-03)
OSK Target Price4.15 (2011-05-25)
MIDF Target Price4.12 (2011-06-14)
RHB Target Price4.25 (2011-07-25)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.13%
Dividend Yield2.58%
Profit Margin7.67%
Tax Rate30.02%
Asset Turnover1.6065
Net Asset Value Per Share1.29
Net Tangible Asset per share1.19
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.24
Cash Per Share0.13
Liquidity Current Ratio1.141
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6354
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2421
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5878
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3664
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale2.3%
Days to sell the inventory33
Days to collect the receivables23
Days to pay the payables56

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s revenue for the period under review improved primarily from its continuing strategy of network expansion and its effective KFC marketing programs. The growth in the integrated poultry segment was attributed to better sales to the restaurants and retail outlets and the continuing improvement in its local open market sales and export sales

- Malaysia operations revenue and profit growth were due to:-
i) continuing network expansion where 19 new KFC restaurants were opened during the period under review
ii) the introduction of innovative new products and promotions such as the 500th restaurant celebration Combo, KFC Fish Donut, KFC Lunch Treats, new thematic campaign – “So Good”, KFC Chicken Chop with mushroom gravy, new AM Breakfast menu and KFC Ole Pocketful

- Singapre operations introduction of new products such as the Fortune Feast, KFC Mandarin Orange egg tarts, Blueberry Pancakes, Ultimate Roasta Box and value products such as KFC Snacker and Hearty Deal drove sales and transactions at the restaurants. The higher throughput during the period under review improved its restaurants profitability

- India operations currently operates 9 outlets of KFC as at end June 2011 as compared to 2 outlets at end June prior year. Its outlets registered encouraging sales but the profitability of its new additions was hampered by initial start-up costs

- Integrated Poultry segment registered improved sales to the KFC restaurants and better sales of its Ayamas products to the local open market and export market, its profitability was negatively affected by the higher cost of broiler purchases from the open market to supplement the requirements of its expanded KFC restaurants network and its Rasamas restaurants performance. Management is currently consolidating and rationalising the Rasamas restaurants chain to improve its profitability

- Ancillary segment got negative contribution partly attributed to its KFCH International College operations which expanded its facilities at both its Bandar Dato Onn and Puchong campuses. Substantive marketing programs and talks have been developed and being implemented progressively to increase its students intake. In addition, the profitability of its sauce manufacturing operations was dampened by the increased sugar prices

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0455*4*1.1 = 0.2002, estimate PE on current price 3.3 = 16.06(DPS 0.085)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.061+0.0452)*2*1.1 = 0.2336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.8/14.49 (DPS 0.085)

KFC latest news (English)

KFC latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2011-08-2420112N/AN/A0.033.48%6.94%69009013343095296310561336356724800.04550.090716493686043511693210450171182901119303404413171263602768410402879942079942030857612011-06-307.67%30.02%1.6065-1.291.193.240.131.1410.63540.24210.58780.36642.3%332356
2011-05-24201114.013.47-3.57%3.57%644219644219526505265036124361240.04520.045216081065974041605110107025165249822394621317121830376329408079918079918030768432011-03-318.17%30.01%1.5956-1.241.153.350.121.14330.62310.22180.60060.37152.4%342459
2011-02-21201044.113.550.0554.84%15.60%683924252235863393221833486951568690.06100.19651583032577760150251005272264514253672359512446510842724713171279846979846930741052010-12-319.27%22.92%1.593419.59661.241.153.350.161.16520.68390.31570.58350.3652.7%322257
2010-11-24201034.153.46-4.35%12.31%631551183843456236158440382041081740.04810.1361140911353024615197878867144037158045161123449140081416910928079476679476631154822010-09-308.90%30.05%1.7477-1.090.993.960.141.19810.7390.27810.61390.37633.2%292752
2010-08-242010211.42.70.14.20%8.22%60620712068835208610220435727699700.18020.352913254634742791406585118479831987981596512344918967349328851719827519827521215422010-06-308.59%29.95%1.823-4.223.852.780.451.18770.69450.24690.56660.35782.8%292448
2010-05-252010111.58.3-4.08%4.08%600676600676501185011834243342430.17270.17271297645458570133068390753229375491015312344940778509317251819827519827516853372010-03-318.34%30.13%1.8275-4.163.792.240.371.24450.71430.20730.55530.35343.6%312750
2010-02-24200948.57.590.164.35%16.21%624229229743154736190015350241304030.17660.65771290470486222124918042482432611587165775796661845452678812344919827519827515743032009-12-318.77%35.11%1.780312.07263.993.652.180.621.22380.75270.33750.61410.37683.6%302456
2009-11-24200938.017.3-4.56%12.43%58515116732024944313527935002953790.17650.4810120951244216612287767346132096816423634497985504541411011209519827519827514672352009-09-308.45%28.11%1.881-3.813.462.140.571.29860.8190.34960.58560.36564.2%272347
2009-08-19200928.06.510.084.26%8.12%5614121088051449038583631680603770.15980.3045116182241851311591743309496524532623988979854326196627832319827519827514474072009-06-308.00%28.06%1.9301-3.693.342.190.41.34480.80460.27460.5720.36024.4%272343
2009-05-21200917.556.7-3.92%3.92%526639526639409334093328697286970.14470.144711600664282431096873182311559126634471979851104336710135219827519827513680972009-03-317.77%28.09%1.9058-3.643.282.10.511.16470.71660.29880.59410.36922.5%272244
2009-02-26200847.36.750.144.04%16.88%601907217978840024167457283851185350.14320.5978115440745201710232702390135476168280827413906332804410789798519827519827513978382008-12-316.65%28.25%1.888211.79263.493.142.250.61.15270.70140.33660.65310.39162.5%292050
2008-11-20200837.656.8-4.59%13.16%55244015778814412412743331451901500.15860.4547111926143444610250684815811341126603921140358315263544710491119827519827513680972008-09-307.99%27.88%1.8505-3.43.052.260.631.17190.69650.35590.6440.38822.9%322052
2008-08-20200827.05.50.084.66%8.99%5298431025441432028330930411586990.15340.29601051775398723993865305267636650221715914035826141454512581319827519827513680972008-06-308.15%28.24%1.8516-3.242.892.390.721.16820.74530.44960.620.37912.7%281751
2008-05-21200818.45.7-4.42%4.42%495598495598401074010728288282880.14270.142710314923918359347639657223621952310721403582839176714212519827519827512887872008-03-318.09%28.17%1.7675-3.182.832.30.721.35490.8750.54720.62170.37995.1%271752
2008-02-22200746.85.50.125.21%17.12%493263173037145191150624317141042690.15990.5259100612839718769206089411745288340610000114923791122887914035819827519827512491322007-12-319.16%28.95%1.719811.97993.042.692.340.711.2880.85180.54510.65980.39484.3%261756
2007-11-28200737.25.95-4.46%12.35%42873812371083829910543326226725550.13230.365995785637031267435875441063986040789061149237459914307010616719827519827514077522007-09-308.93%30.81%1.7284-2.932.582.750.541.30980.84160.48190.63760.38664.1%251751
2007-08-30200728.07.00.084.06%7.97%405613808370341786713423601463290.11900.23379713993901426470581257531963744533211149237157511746013177719827519827511797362007-06-308.43%30.14%1.263-2.92.552.330.661.31110.88580.55870.67880.40166.0%332264
2007-05-2220071N/AN/A-4.08%4.08%402757402757329563295622728227280.11460.1146950233392883619355735011432149363154114923735043504511419219827519827511103402007-03-318.18%30.04%0.8643-2.782.442.30.581.23850.77580.47870.71280.41356.9%543094
2007-02-1520064N/AN/A0.145.59%18.39%41848415238394238314230429853982800.15060.4957974078439737586553434117641261000893471231721154122606514923719827519827510706852006-12-3110.13%28.91%0.429610.89422.672.332.320.751.15290.79640.53490.83210.451410.2%9759199

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtFixed deposits (A-0)Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Quoted investment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Investments in unquoted shares (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Employee benefits (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Employee benefits (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20112-5074122859910-106098423600104028--217244--169002545482877117225191375153689137315816932
20111-5074123215910-10249142340094080--220639--170207537932906116577152605152912737922616051
20104-5001823578910-99998422400131712--200797--153633517952913105845126976444670235716415025
20103-4873924775898-84090723000109280--180409--181105327293093101466198366045416531835315197
20102-4873924611898-8148991052488517--176798--16047732695324779832195884014550829300814065
20101-4873924746898-787977-72518--185450--17731732714315872922162274013443729871113306
20094-4339925275898-773241-123449--172339--15186932940309984387121594013204932118712491
20093-433992613389862399660264-112095-4252153781--14629131763337286352-2935113426925212287
20092-433992691089862605644390-78323-8011154096--14319031625330998318-2933956824540011591
20091-433992708289863652629927-101352-5820152008--13592831594335454071-2939145524747610968
20084-433992643689863841615059-97985-9139158474-2020311897331602331365944-6237511127542410232
20083-4339926427-63751574426-104911--16683045002000011501725149390354466154-7885327192110250
20082-4339926926-64250546125-125813--1343184500170008944425135386352079472-679412492339938
20081632443399263802000644625325094500142125--124640--851532505538541031862595-216382355079347
20074632442762253012000639415296584500140358--112312--789722503637581109073296-120802421106920
200731223042762261152000638125178914500106167-3004103146--76229297023500116809-201112262088746743
200721223042762258452000641345106784500131777-2475100308--74690296593123121490-166421311935736470
2007115793427622456720006249050266445001141923090868110367--66940296843004121628-240472261911016193
2006415793427622427120006268750039345001492375162-99475--677982972229711280282790235723672036245865

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interest
20112690090159001333640636434707
20111644219158001196639591012726
201046839241453113867839626984167
201036315511690011616515748051132
2010260620715600984618553755759
2010160067615100836728550450775
2009462422919218976743569260494
20093585151139001085280534903541
20092561412126001472817515854623
200915266391150019061492485292736
200846019071130719311068561020332
200835524401230019171131507530373
200825298431220018421368486167591
200814955981130018692290455912519
200744932631308118761116447312396
200734287381180021371968390270273
200724056131030026232417371229277
20071402757990046662952368087328
200644184841225540721743373772275

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtMalaysia KFC RestaurantsMalaysia Integrated PoultryMalaysia AncillaryForeign KFC RestaurantsRevaluation Surplus
2011240810014190027700112400-
2011138780013090023800101700-
2010440800013720024900113800-
201033733001415002220094500-
201023584001298002530092700-
201013572001249002850090100-
200943767001259002490096700-
200933473001243002190091700-
200923377001157002110086900-
200913039001183002160082800-
200843615001207003020089500-
200833147001220002590089800-
200823130001049002700084900-
20081295200974002270080300-
20074309100880001870077500-
20073254200796002070074200-
20072242600742002030068500-
20071237500752001840071700-
20064247800794001730074000-

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtMalaysia KFC RestaurantsMalaysia Integrated PoultryMalaysia AncillaryForeign KFC RestaurantsRevaluation Surplus
201125150060018003900-
20111506001500200800-
2010454100700-19006700
201035050010003005000-
201024650050022002900-
2010142600190029002700-
200944970011002006300-
200934310019003004700-
2009242900100013004300-
2009135200130017002700-
2008444300340036002700-
2008340000250013002900-
200823340055001004200-
2008131700240021003900-
2007448800230029001600-
2007331100170022003300-
200722740040004002300-
2007125300340012003100-
2006434400990052003300-


Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables






CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING




1-Year Historical Daily Chart


5-Year Historical Weekly Chart


Wednesday, September 28, 2011

KLCI Stock - MYEG / 0138 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)363,635,855 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.605-0.011)/0.0474 = 12.53 (High)
Target Price0.57+0.011 = 0.58 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.0474, DPS 0.011)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 0.66
Comment
Revenue decreased 9.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.7%, eps increased 25.7% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 36.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough for financing expenses but not enough for investing expenses hence increased borrowings and spent 39.6% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio from strong to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio from low to below moderate level now, receivables ratio got slightly high, benefit from introduced new services
First Support Price0.59
Second Support Price0.57
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity22.67%
Dividend Yield1.82%
Profit Margin44.49%
Tax Rate0.55%
Asset Turnover0.5755
Net Asset Value Per Share0.17
Net Tangible Asset per share0.15
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.07
Cash Per Share0.01
Liquidity Current Ratio2.0213
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.0213
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3647
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2107
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.174
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale21.3%
Days to sell the inventory-
Days to collect the receivables126
Days to pay the payables73

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in revenue and PAT are primarily attributable to:-
i) an overall increase in volume from all segment of services due to the ongoing marketing campaign which has enhanced MYEG’s brand name
ii) the launch of the new online maid permit renewal services with the Immigration Department

- However, this was offset primarily by the increase in marketing expenses, personnel related costs, depreciation and amortisation expenses to support an increase in transaction volumes in FY2011 in addition to an increase in pre-operating expenses for new services to be introduced in the near future

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0105+0.0132)*2 = 0.0474, estimate PE on current price 0.605 = 12.53(DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0105*4*1.1 = 0.0462, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.75/12.64 (DPS 0.011)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0097*4*1.1 = 0.042, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.62/16.29 (DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.032*1.1 = 0.0352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.7/20.45 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0097*4*1.1 = 0.0427, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.32/16.16 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0088*4 = 0.0352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.57/14.91 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.57/12.66 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0074*4 = 0.0296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.44/13.88 (DPS 0.0092)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.63/14.37 (DPS 0.01835)

MYEG latest news (English)

MYEG latest news (Chinese)



KLCI Stock - TGUAN / 7034 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)104,152,455 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.99-0.05)/0.2664 = 3.53 (Moderate)
Target Price1.60+0.05 = 1.65 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.2664, DPS 0.05)
DecisionBUY if got strong buy volume above 0.99
Comment
Revenue increased 2.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.4%, eps increased 20.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 81.8%, no cash generated from operating after changes of working capital hence spent 9.4% of Group cash to cover other expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, all segments growth
First Support Price0.99
Second Support Price0.93
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.98%
Dividend Yield5.05%
Profit Margin6.48%
Tax Rate7.59%
Asset Turnover1.5889
Net Asset Value Per Share2.2
Net Tangible Asset per share2.2
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.45
Cash Per Share0.47
Liquidity Current Ratio2.6062
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.516
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6046
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4051
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2883
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale25.6%
Days to sell the inventory66
Days to collect the receivables51
Days to pay the payables38

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in revenue and pbt was mainly due to the increase in export volume of the group's products and better margin

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0603+0.0729)*2 = 0.2664, estimate PE on current price 0.99 = 3.53(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2129*1.05 = 0.2235, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.86/3.85 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1935*1.1 = 0.2129, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.93/4.23 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.045*4 = 0.18(profit margin around 4%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.89 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.19(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1351*1.1 = 0.1486 (10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.81/4.98 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1351 (revenue growth but cost also increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.92/5.26 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/5.45 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1138, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.63 (DPS 0.02)

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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

KLCI Stock - EKSONS / 9016 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)172,423,650 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.80

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.05-0.05)/0.1447 = 6.91 (Moderate)
Target Price1.30+0.05 = 1.35 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.1447, DPS 0.05)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain above 1.05
Comment
Revenue increased 43.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 69.6%, eps increased 523.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 96.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at high level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, inventory ratio slightly high, property division growing, benefit from plywood prices uptrend
First Support Price1.05
Second Support Price0.985
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price1.87 (2011-04-08)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.49%
Dividend Yield4.76%
Profit Margin19.09%
Tax Rate12.36%
Asset Turnover0.7854
Net Asset Value Per Share2.3
Net Tangible Asset per share2.14
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.5
Cash Per Share0.67
Liquidity Current Ratio3.6301
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8041
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.4363
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2018
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1596
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale53.4%
Days to sell the inventory150
Days to collect the receivables23
Days to pay the payables29

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The higher turnover and pbt in Timber division mainly due to higher plywood sales volume and higher selling prices

- Property development division recorded better performance than FY11Q1 due to in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year no revenue was recognised as construction work had just commenced and there was no progress billings and higher marketing and management expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1206*1.2 = 0.1447, estimate PE on current price 1.05 = 6.91(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1096*1.1 = 0.1206, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/7.96 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0261*4*1.05 = 0.1096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.1/9.35 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336(use profit margin 6% from 93k revenue), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.76/6.96 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0342*4 = 0.1368(use profit margin 8% from 70k revenue), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.51 (DPS 0.05) (Amendment)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.11*0.9 = 0.099(0.11 is year 2010 cum_eps excluded 9.9 million and 10% negative adjustment for those tax refund), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.11, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.82/7.36 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.95/7.5 (DPS 0.02)

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KLCI Stock - SIME / 4197 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)48,376,183,839 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(8.05-0.3)/0.6708 = 11.55 (Moderate)
Target Price10.73+0.3 = 11.03 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.6708, DPS 0.3)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price can sustain above 8.2
Comment
Revenue increased 23.2% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.8% and in addition is highest all the time, eps increased 60% and was largely recover from loss than preceding year corresponding quarter, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, most segment growth, CPO price more likely to go downtrend
First Support Price8.0
Second Support Price7.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Maybank Target Price10.6 (2011-03-24)
RHB Target Price10.6 (2011-03-24)
AMMB Target Price10.6 (2011-04-26)
TA Target Price11.16 (2011-04-26)
CIMB Target Price10.9 (2011-05-27)
OSK Target Price8.47 (2011-05-30)
Credit Suisse Target Price8 (2011-06-21)
Kenanga Target Price11.06 (2011-07-26)
Affin Target Price11.09 (2011-08-10)
HwangDBS Target Price10.4 (2011-08-11)
MIDF Target Price10.55 (2011-08-24)
ECM Target Price10.95 (2011-08-26)
HLG Target Price10.6 (2011-08-26)
UOB Target Price10.4 (2011-09-21)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity14.77%
Dividend Yield3.73%
Profit Margin15.49%
Tax Rate31.79%
Asset Turnover0.9969
Net Asset Value Per Share4.0
Net Tangible Asset per share3.98
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.21
Cash Per Share0.92
Liquidity Current Ratio1.7598
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0488
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4191
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.7507
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4209
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale23.5%
Days to sell the inventory89
Days to collect the receivables59
Days to pay the payables83

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Plantation division registered a 56% increase in profit due to the better average crude palm oil (CPO) price realised of RM2,906 per tonne coupled with the higher fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production and offset by the lower oil extraction rate

- Overall the Group’s FFB yield at 21.5 MT was higher compared to that in the prior year of 20.6 MT. The higher FFB yield was mainly driven by higher production in Indonesia attributable to the additional hectarage coming into maturity

- Downstream operations however registered a loss of RM74.6 million largely due to the impairment provision for biodiesel and bioganic assets of RM114.0 million and the thin refining margins caused by the narrowing price spread between CPO and refined products

- Property division’s contribution fell by 8% primarily due to the slower off-take of certain products, deferment in project launches, write off of project costs of RM19.7 and impairment of overseas properties of RM77.7 million

- Industrial division achieved a commendable performance of RM1,068.0 million which is an increase of 41% from that of the previous financial year. This was achieved on the back of strong sales in Australia/ Pacific Islands, China and Malaysia and better price realisations

- Motors Division posted a 64% jump in contribution due to the strong and sustained demand across all regions, and particularly due to the demand generated by new models produced by BMW, Hyundai and Ford during the financial year

- Energy & Utilities recorded positive turnaround was largely due to the RM98.5 million provision write-back following the Close-Out Agreement with Maersk Oil Qatar and better earnings from the Port and Water operations in China

- The results from Healthcare increased by 19% mainly due to the higher turnover, additional revenue stream from management consultancy services in Vietnam and increased number of student intake in the education sector

- Other businesses suffered a loss due largely to the impairment provisions made on an available-for-sale investment and assets totaling RM79.1 million and the lower returns from the insurance sector

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.6098*1.1 = 0.6708, estimate PE on current price 8.05 = 11.55(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.146+0.1365)*2 = 0.565, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/14.94 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.146+0.1089)*2 = 0.5098(cpo price decreasing but offset by contracts awarded), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.22/17.01 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1271*4*1.1 = 0.5592(ROE 3.5% per quarter with condition CPO price continue maintain high), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.79/15.22 (DPS 0.1)
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.37, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.22/19.59 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.44/23.76(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.37, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.43/21.59 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.35/18.91 (DPS 0.27)

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Monday, September 26, 2011

KLCI Stock - P&O / 6009 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)177,049,440 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.72-0.056)/0.1539 = 4.31 (Moderate)
Target Price1.23+0.056 = 1.29 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.1539, DPS 0.056)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain above 0.7 and got stronger buy volume than sell
Comment
Revenue decreased 16% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 17.9%, eps increased 78.8% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.7%, no cash generated and largely over spent in operating activities but cash generated from financing enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at strong level now, better gearing ratio, higher reinsurance assets which should turn into higher revenue, insurance division recorded higher profit
First Support Price0.7
Second Support Price0.66
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity22.63%
Dividend Yield7.78%
Profit Margin17.43%
Tax Rate28.22%
Asset Turnover0.4997
Net Asset Value Per Share0.88
Net Tangible Asset per share0.87
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.87
Cash Per Share2.51
Liquidity Current Ratio5.9168
Liquidity Quick Ratio4.8182
Liquidity Cash Ratio4.0294
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.7859
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7911
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale145.8%
Days to sell the inventory140
Days to collect the receivables85
Days to pay the payables32

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q3 mainly attributable to higher gross premium recorded by the insurance subsidiary and higher pbt mainly attributable to lower net claims incurred at the insurance subsidiary

- Lower revenue than FY11Q2 mainly attributable to lower gross premium recorded by the insurance subsidiary however higher pbt due mainly to lower net claims incurred at the insurance subsidiary

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0368+0.0658)*2*0.75 = 0.1539, estimate PE on current price 0.72 = 4.31(DPS 0.056)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0368*4*0.9 = 0.1325, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.18/5.24 (DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0277*4 = 0.1108(ROE 3.5% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/6.35 (DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4/2 = 0.1(ROE 3.5% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/7.7

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KLCI Stock - OSK / 5053 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,329,779,727 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.38-0.075)/0.0776 = 16.82 (High)
Target Price0.93+0.075 = 1.01 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.0776, DPS 0.075)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 1.3 and sell volume is low
Comment
Revenue decreased 20.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 16%, eps decreased 88.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 50.4%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio, stronger cash level
First Support Price1.3
Second Support Price1.2
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity7.40%
Dividend Yield5.43%
Profit Margin7.07%
Tax Rate32.26%
Asset Turnover0.0961
Net Asset Value Per Share1.57
Net Tangible Asset per share1.32
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.08
Cash Per Share2.27
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2218
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.7322
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2419
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio6.5974
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8464
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale177.7%
Days to sell the inventory2268
Days to collect the receivables1406
Days to pay the payables4620

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and profit than FY11Q1 mainly due to lower contribution from Investment Banking and Equities & Futures division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0495+0.0059)*2*0.7 = 0.0776(equity market recent dropping >20%), estimate PE on current price 1.38 = 16.82(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0495*4 = 0.198, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.21/6.34 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0993*1.1 = 0.1092(exclude RM20 million from property investment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.35/13.87 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0479*2*1.05 = 0.1006, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.42/16.15 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0479*2 = 0.0958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.43/12.08 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.56/7.4 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0449*4 = 0.1796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.21/6.38 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0525*4 = 0.21, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.38/6.9 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0570*4 = 0.228, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.83 (DPS 0.05)
- After 2009 Q1 loss result announced, no estimate
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0240*4 = 0.096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.32/7.86 (DPS 0.075)

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