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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

KLCI Stock - EKSONS / 9016 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)172,423,650 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.80

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.05-0.05)/0.1447 = 6.91 (Moderate)
Target Price1.30+0.05 = 1.35 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.1447, DPS 0.05)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain above 1.05
Revenue increased 43.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 69.6%, eps increased 523.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 96.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at high level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, inventory ratio slightly high, property division growing, benefit from plywood prices uptrend
First Support Price1.05
Second Support Price0.985

Research House
CIMB Target Price1.87 (2011-04-08)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.49%
Dividend Yield4.76%
Profit Margin19.09%
Tax Rate12.36%
Asset Turnover0.7854
Net Asset Value Per Share2.3
Net Tangible Asset per share2.14
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.5
Cash Per Share0.67
Liquidity Current Ratio3.6301
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8041
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.4363
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2018
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1596
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale53.4%
Days to sell the inventory150
Days to collect the receivables23
Days to pay the payables29

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The higher turnover and pbt in Timber division mainly due to higher plywood sales volume and higher selling prices

- Property development division recorded better performance than FY11Q1 due to in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year no revenue was recognised as construction work had just commenced and there was no progress billings and higher marketing and management expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1206*1.2 = 0.1447, estimate PE on current price 1.05 = 6.91(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1096*1.1 = 0.1206, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/7.96 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0261*4*1.05 = 0.1096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.1/9.35 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336(use profit margin 6% from 93k revenue), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.76/6.96 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0342*4 = 0.1368(use profit margin 8% from 70k revenue), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.51 (DPS 0.05) (Amendment)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.11*0.9 = 0.099(0.11 is year 2010 cum_eps excluded 9.9 million and 10% negative adjustment for those tax refund), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.11, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.82/7.36 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.95/7.5 (DPS 0.02)

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