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Saturday, September 3, 2011

KLCI Stock - MHB / 5186 - 2011 Quarter 5

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)10,720,000,000 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.7-0.05)/0.26 = 25.58 (High)
Target Price4.68+0.05 = 4.73 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.26, DPS 0.05)
DecisionNot interested unless 50d moving average back to uptrend
Revenue decreased 29.9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 42.2%, eps decreased 9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.5%, no cash generated from operating but cash generated from financing more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, receivables and payables ratio are slightly high, RM952mil contracts from MISC, acquisition of Pasir Gudang Yard, expect more Petronas job
First Support Price6.4
Second Support Price5.9

Research House
Credit Suisse Target Price7.15 (2011-01-27)
Kenanga Target Price6.61 (2011-05-09)
Maybank Target Price6.5 (2011-05-09)
TA Target Price7.21 (2011-06-06)
AMMB Target Price9.9 (2011-07-04)
OSK Target Price8.23 (2011-07-13)
UOB Target Price8.6 (2011-08-05)
ECM Target Price7.53 (2011-08-17)
MIDF Target Price6.7 (2011-08-17)
RHB Target Price2.77 (2011-08-29)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity3.32%
Dividend Yield0.75%
Profit Margin10.06%
Tax Rate17.75%
Asset Turnover0.8966
Net Asset Value Per Share1.49
Net Tangible Asset per share1.49
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.46
Cash Per Share1.26
Liquidity Current Ratio1.528
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5163
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.868
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9785
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4942
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale29.0%
Days to sell the inventory3
Days to collect the receivables130
Days to pay the payables210

My notes based on 2011 quarter 5 report (number in '000):-
- The Group profit was comparable due to higher performance from Engineering and Construction segment (including the profit from the jointly controlled entity for Turkmenistan Block 1 Phase 1 project), offset by the weaker performance in Marine Repair and Conversion segment

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.08+0.05)*2 = 0.26, estimate PE on current price 6.7 = 25.58(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.08+0.06)*2 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.32/22.39 (DPS 0.05)

- Yearly revenue, 2008 = 1741922, 2009 = 4021147, 2010 = 6147012
- Yearly PAT, 2008 = 194645, 2009 = 282221, 2010 = 284115

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