KLCI Stock - KPJ / 5878 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,519,028,837 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.37-0.12)/0.2048 = 20.75 (High)
Target Price	3.69+0.12 = 3.81 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.2048, DPS 0.12)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain above 4.5
Comment	Revenue increased 7.6% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.8%, eps increased 7.6% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.8%, cash generated from operating more than enough for financing expenses but investing expenses spent 16.8% of Group cash, better liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	4.3
Second Support Price	4.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	4.6 (2011-04-14)
OSK Target Price	5.21 (2011-08-22)
RHB Target Price	4.77 (2011-08-22)
TA Target Price	5.04 (2011-08-22)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	13.53%
Dividend Yield	3.07%
Profit Margin	9.60%
Tax Rate	24.69%
Asset Turnover	1.0303
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.33
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.11
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	4.12
Cash Per Share	0.27
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.3124
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2236
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3414
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.0122
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4732
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	8.5%
Days to sell the inventory	10
Days to collect the receivables	63
Days to pay the payables	76

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt is in line with the increase in revenue of the hospitals

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0497*4*1.03 = 0.2048, estimate PE on current price 4.37 = 20.75(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0462*4*1.05 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.56/20.21 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0512*4*1.1 = 0.2253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.73/15.99 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0512*4*1.1 = 0.2253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.18/15.71 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0506*4*1.1 = 0.2226, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.34/13.7 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.25/13.02 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1359*4 = 0.5436(after split 2.5 = 0.2174), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/10.9 (DPS 0.2 or 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1291*4 = 0.5164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.24/6.29 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1188*4 = 0.4752, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/6.92 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1046*4 = 0.4184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.29/6.74 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.107*4 = 0.428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.99/6.17 (DPS 0.07)

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