KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	265,218,756 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.83-0.145)/0.38 = 7.07 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.23+0.145 = 3.38 (PE 8.5, EPS 0.38, DPS 0.145)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain at 2.95
Comment	Revenue decreased 4.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.4%, eps decreased 26.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.9%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover financing expenses but investing expenses used 16.8% of Group cash to cover, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	2.8
Second Support Price	2.6
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	18.27%
Dividend Yield	5.12%
Profit Margin	9.85%
Tax Rate	23.63%
Asset Turnover	1.2035
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.02
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.01
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.45
Cash Per Share	0.2
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.2575
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.5676
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2781
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4231
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2833
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	25.1%
Days to sell the inventory	64
Days to collect the receivables	94
Days to pay the payables	87

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY11Q1 attributed to a moderated demand for the Group’s products following an exceptionally strong first quarter

- The good performance than FY10Q2 is attributed to continued strong sales domestically in both the private and public sectors upon the successful outcome of its promotional launches and local trade fairs. Operating synergies were further enhanced with the streamlining of domestic distribution coverage under Apex Pharmacy Marketing Sdn Bhd

- Revenue and profit at Apex Pharmacy Marketing Sdn Bhd likewise grew steadily, with continued good market acceptance of newly launched own-brand products. These include AvoMeter Perfect, a combination blood glucose and total cholesterol meter under the Group’s Avo Diagnostics brand. Newly acquired agencies contributed to sustain growth in pharmaceutical distribution operations in Singapore

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.38, estimate PE on current price 2.83 = 7.07(DPS 0.145)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.095*4 = 0.38, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.21/7.05 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.08*4*1.05 = 0.336(exclude non-recurring income RM10.1 million), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/7.44 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0771*4*1.05 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7.38 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1334*2*1.1 = 0.2935 (0.1334 is recent 2Q cum_eps, 10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.7/7.85 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.32 (add 5% adjustment from 0.3048 due to profit boosted), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.48/8.41 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/6.18 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

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