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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

KLCI Stock - AIRASIA / 5099 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)9,303,193,143 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.35-0.03)/0.3189 = 10.41 (Moderate)
Target Price4.46+0.03 = 4.49 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.3189, DPS 0.03)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 3.6
Revenue increased 2.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.2%, eps decreased 39.3% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 47.9%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, payables ratio is high, benefit from oil price decreasing
First Support Price3.3
Second Support Price3.0

Research House
AMMB Target Price3.6 (2011-05-24)
Golman Sachs Target Price3.2 (2011-06-02)
Credit Suisse Target Price4.8 (2011-08-10)
HwangDBS Target Price4.5 (2011-08-10)
Maybank Target Price3.36 (2011-08-23)
CIMB Target Price4.77 (2011-08-24)
ECM Target Price4.78 (2011-08-24)
HLG Target Price4.5 (2011-08-24)
Kenanga Target Price4.31 (2011-08-24)
MIDF Target Price4.15 (2011-08-24)
RHB Target Price3.53 (2011-08-24)
TA Target Price4.5 (2011-08-24)
UOB Target Price3.5 (2011-08-24)
OSK Target Price5.18 (2011-09-02)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity25.62%
Dividend Yield0.90%
Profit Margin13.48%
Tax Rate28.11%
Asset Turnover0.3193
Net Asset Value Per Share1.4
Net Tangible Asset per share1.4
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.59
Cash Per Share0.76
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5846
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5757
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.0421
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.4506
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7102
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale27.5%
Days to sell the inventory2
Days to collect the receivables91
Days to pay the payables204

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The revenue growth was supported by 15% growth in passenger volume offset by an average fare that was 5% lower at RM164 as compared to RM173 achieved in 2Q10. Ancillary income per passenger year-on-year rose by 15% to RM50 from RM43. Seat load factor was 4 percentage points higher at 81% compared to 77% in the same period last year

- Thailand division got higher revenue and profit due to better margin

- Indonesia division got revenue increased but lower profit mainly due to aircraft fuel expenses and other operating expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.3189, estimate PE on current price 3.35 = 10.41(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0618*1.2)+(0.0618*1.2*1.1*3) = 0.3189, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.08/9.16 (DPS 0.03)

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