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Monday, September 5, 2011

KLCI Stock - BSTEAD / 2771 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,114,483,994 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.44-0.32)/0.44 = 11.64 (Moderate)
Target Price6.16+0.32 = 6.48 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.44, DPS 0.32)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price can sustain above 5.3
Revenue increased 40.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 56.2%, eps decreased 18.9% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.3% (exclude gain on disposal), cash generated from operating just enough for operating expenses, however managed to generated cash from financing activities to cover other expenses and still got extra, better liquidity ratio but but still at weak level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, receivables and payable ratio got slightly high, CPO price still in downtrend
First Support Price5.25
Second Support Price4.9

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price8.1 (2011-02-07)
AMMB Target Price5.2 (2011-03-29)
CIMB Target Price6.45 (2011-05-31)
TA Target Price7.62 (2011-07-07)
HLG Target Price7.71 (2011-08-11)
ECM Target Price6.41 (2011-08-19)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.49%
Dividend Yield5.88%
Profit Margin11.26%
Tax Rate11.01%
Asset Turnover0.6105
Net Asset Value Per Share4.62
Net Tangible Asset per share2.79
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.97
Cash Per Share0.7
Liquidity Current Ratio0.6314
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.5235
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1258
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.5082
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.57
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-27.6%
Days to sell the inventory33
Days to collect the receivables109
Days to pay the payables101

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to higher sales volume for the Manufacturing & Trading Division, while the Plantation revenue had increased by 25% on stronger palm product prices and the first-
time consolidation of Pharmaniaga for the Pharmaceutical Division

- During the half year, the Division achieved an average palm oil price of RM3,441 per MT

- Lower operating profit from Plantation Division due to no dividend income from Boustead REIT booked in during this quarter, while the 10% increase in FFB crop had been offset by a 5% decline in CPO price

- The Finance & Investment Division’s profit for the current quarter was marginally higher, mainly due to a better contribution from the Affin group. Manufacturing and Trading Division registered a lower pre-tax profit during the current quarter on lower stockholding gain at BH Petrol

- Property Division’s pre-tax profit for the current quarter of RM24.1 million was almost double that of the preceding quarter mainly due to gains from the sale of properties and a corporate lot. The Heavy Industries Division posted a weaker result for the current quarter due to cost escalations

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.1+0.12)*2 = 0.44, estimate PE on current price 5.44 = 11.64(DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5557, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.94/8.53 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2646*2*1.05 = 0.5557(exclude RM52 million one off gained), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.08/8.8 (DPS 0.39)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1*4*1.1 = 0.44, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.11/11.14 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.08*4*1.05 = 0.336(0.08 is eps exclude non-repeatable income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.04/11.59 (DPS 0.325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4699*1.05 = 0.4934(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.3/6.58 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4934, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.1/6.31 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1241*4 = 0.4964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.89/6.06 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0721*4 = 0.2884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/10.92 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0934*4 = 0.3736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.78/8.94 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1699*4 = 0.6796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/3.97 (DPS 0.3)

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