KLCI Stock - SUPERMX / 7106 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	959,018,380 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.82-0.075)/0.33 = 8.32 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.96+0.075 = 4.04 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.33, DPS 0.075)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain above 2.9
Comment	Revenue decreased 1.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.3%, eps increased 4.5%(exclude RM4 million written off) but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 44.5%, little cash generated from operating due to increased inventories but managed increase borrowings to cover other expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, continuing affect by weakeaning of USD dollar against Ringgit, benefit from latex price declining
First Support Price	2.7
Second Support Price	2.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Affin Target Price	4.85 (2011-06-09)
AMMB Target Price	5.9 (2011-07-15)
CIMB Target Price	3.64 (2011-08-23)
OSK Target Price	5.5 (2011-08-23)
Kenanga Target Price	3.22 (2011-08-24)
TA Target Price	3.5 (2011-08-24)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	16.79%
Dividend Yield	2.66%
Profit Margin	10.06%
Tax Rate	5.36%
Asset Turnover	0.7939
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.12
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.03
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.53
Cash Per Share	0.46
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.1381
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4126
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6121
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.6584
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.397
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	30.5%
Days to sell the inventory	79
Days to collect the receivables	78
Days to pay the payables	30

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue was higher in the current quarter compared to the corresponding quarter last year but profit margins were eroded owing to continuously high volatility in latex prices (RM9.7) and unfavourable exchange rates (3.02)

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.075*4*1.1 = 0.33(exclude RM4 million bond write off), estimate PE on current price 2.82 = 8.32(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0718*4*1.1 = 0.3159, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.42/9.58 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0962*4 = 0.3848, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.94 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1124*4*1.1 = 0.4946, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.31/7.77 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1351*4*0.9 = 0.4864(correction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.82/7.43 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6576+0.0253 = 0.6829, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.38/8.77 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1644*4 = 0.6576, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.16/8.24 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1514*4 = 0.6056, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/5.3 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0972*4 = 0.3888, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.74/5.14 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0743*4 = 0.2972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.01 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2499, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.67/3.07 (DPS 0.0325)

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