KLCI Stock - OSK / 5053 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,329,779,727 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.38-0.075)/0.0776 = 16.82 (High)
Target Price	0.93+0.075 = 1.01 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.0776, DPS 0.075)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain above 1.3 and sell volume is low
Comment	Revenue decreased 20.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 16%, eps decreased 88.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 50.4%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio, stronger cash level
First Support Price	1.3
Second Support Price	1.2
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	7.40%
Dividend Yield	5.43%
Profit Margin	7.07%
Tax Rate	32.26%
Asset Turnover	0.0961
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.57
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.32
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.08
Cash Per Share	2.27
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.2218
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.7322
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2419
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	6.5974
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.8464
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	177.7%
Days to sell the inventory	2268
Days to collect the receivables	1406
Days to pay the payables	4620

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and profit than FY11Q1 mainly due to lower contribution from Investment Banking and Equities & Futures division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0495+0.0059)*2*0.7 = 0.0776(equity market recent dropping >20%), estimate PE on current price 1.38 = 16.82(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0495*4 = 0.198, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.21/6.34 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0993*1.1 = 0.1092(exclude RM20 million from property investment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.35/13.87 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0479*2*1.05 = 0.1006, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.42/16.15 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0479*2 = 0.0958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.43/12.08 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.56/7.4 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0449*4 = 0.1796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.21/6.38 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0525*4 = 0.21, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.38/6.9 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0570*4 = 0.228, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.83 (DPS 0.05)
- After 2009 Q1 loss result announced, no estimate
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0240*4 = 0.096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.32/7.86 (DPS 0.075)

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