KLCI Stock - PETGAS / 6033 - 2011 Quarter 5

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	26,673,306,214 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(13.48-0.5)/0.7816 = 16.61 (Moderate)
Target Price	15.63+0.5 = 16.13 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.7816, DPS 0.5)
Decision	BUY at next round of global uptrend and if stock price can sustain above 13.05
Comment	Revenue increased 2.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5%, eps increased 45% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	13.05
Second Support Price	12.6
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Maybank Target Price	14.1 (2010-12-01)
TA Target Price	14.2 (2011-02-23)
AMMB Target Price	15.3 (2011-07-15)
OSK Target Price	14 (2011-07-25)
HwangDBS Target Price	15.5 (2011-08-15)
ECM Target Price	14.14 (2011-08-18)
MIDF Target Price	14.4 (2011-08-18)
RHB Target Price	14.47 (2011-08-29)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	4.34%
Dividend Yield	3.71%
Profit Margin	55.71%
Tax Rate	24.26%
Asset Turnover	0.3299
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.47
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.47
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.03
Cash Per Share	1.63
Liquidity Current Ratio	9.3267
Liquidity Quick Ratio	9.0713
Liquidity Cash Ratio	8.2724
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2165
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1772
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	91.0%
Days to sell the inventory	19
Days to collect the receivables	32
Days to pay the payables	50

My notes based on 2011 quarter 5 report (number in '000):-
- Higher/lower pbt than FY11Q1/FY11Q4 mainly due to higher/lower cost of revenue

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = 0.1954*4 = 0.7816, estimate PE on current price 13.48 = 16.61(DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1348*4 = 0.5392, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.04/19.84 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6266, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.65/16.41 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5331*0.95 = 0.5064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.63/19.31 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4612(3% dropped from 0.4755), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.47/19.8 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5(0.37+0.13), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.2/18.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.26 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.47 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/19.15 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/18.94 (DPS 0.05)

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