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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,709,391,527 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.58-0.1)/0.4176 = 5.94 (Moderate)
Target Price4.18+0.1 = 4.28 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.4176, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 2.75
Revenue decreased 8.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.7%, eps decreased 23.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover dividend however increased borrowing so that can cover investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price2.55
Second Support Price2.4

Research House
AMMB Target Price3.7 (2011-07-11)
Maybank Target Price3.6 (2011-08-16)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity11.08%
Dividend Yield3.88%
Profit Margin15.41%
Tax Rate23.07%
Asset Turnover0.493
Net Asset Value Per Share2.62
Net Tangible Asset per share0.0
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.0
Cash Per Share0.74
Liquidity Current Ratio2.5171
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8207
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1012
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.3988
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5587
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale31.4%
Days to sell the inventory63
Days to collect the receivables43
Days to pay the payables81

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt than FY10Q2 mainly contributed by better results from the Gaming and Stockbroking divisions because lower prizes payout ratio and finance cost and higher revenue from non-margin accounts and fair value gain on investments

- Lower pbt in than FY10Q2 Financial Services Division due to higher fair value loss on quoted investments

- Lower pbt than FY11Q1 mainly due to lower sales and higher payout ratio in the Gaming Division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0949*4*1.1 = 0.4176(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate PE on current price 2.58 = 5.94(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.164*4 = 0.656(eps after acquire 49% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.73/3.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.282, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.24/8.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

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