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Monday, September 12, 2011

KLCI Stock - MAYBANK / 1155 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)64,985,692,408 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(8.69-0.72)/0.5908 = 13.49 (Moderate)
Target Price8.27+0.72 = 8.99 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5908, DPS 0.72)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price can sustain above 8.8
Revenue increased 11.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.8%, eps increased 0.1% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.6%, cash generated from operating and financing is more than enough to cover all investing expenses, benefit from low allowances for losses on loans, advance & financing, rising inflationary pressure, insurance business income normally not consistent every quarter hence may affect next quarter profit, profit from segments community financial services and global market slow down
First Support Price8.65
Second Support Price8.2

Research House
UOB Target Price10.3 (2011-05-10)
Kenanga Target Price10.6 (2011-05-13)
TA Target Price10.9 (2011-05-13)
MIDF Target Price10.5 (2011-07-08)
AMMB Target Price10.3 (2011-08-23)
CIMB Target Price11.2 (2011-08-23)
ECM Target Price10 (2011-08-23)
HLG Target Price10.46 (2011-08-23)
RHB Target Price9.7 (2011-08-23)
HwangDBS Target Price10.6 (2011-09-08)
OSK Target Price9.6 (2011-09-08)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.71%
Dividend Yield6.90%
Profit Margin30.21%
Tax Rate27.50%
Asset Turnover0.0511
Net Asset Value Per Share4.34
Net Tangible Asset per share3.44
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.51
Cash Per Share7.65
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1082
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9303
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1655
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio12.062
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.9212
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale176.4%
Days to sell the inventory3249
Days to collect the receivables4406
Days to pay the payables17283

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- PT Bank Internasional Indonesia ("BII") continues to grow organically with significant expansion of loans growth at 24.9% and the increase in the number of branches from 276 as at 30 June 2010 to 344 as at 30 June 2011. Singapore had a strong expansion in loan book of 25.8%

- Lower net interest income largely due to the narrowing in net interest margin as a result of competition for assets and deposits in all key markets, as well as the implementation of Financial Reporting Standards 139

- Higher net income from insurance business due to higher transfer of actuarial surplus from insurance and takaful revenue account, and also the significant improvement in the takaful businesses

- Higher non-interest income due to higher foreign exchange profits and the consolidation of Kim Eng’s income of RM152.6 million, but mitigated by the unrealized loss on revaluation of securities held-for trading and derivatives

- Lower allowance for losses on loans, advances and financing mainly due to higher recoveries and lower allowances in the Malaysian banking operations as a result of lower individual allowance and improvement in the collective allowance. Impairment losses on securities increased by RM118.3 million due to deterioration in value for certain securities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1554*4*0.95 = 0.5905, estimate PE on current price 8.69 = 13.49(DPS 0.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1552*4 = 0.6208, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.34/12.05 (DPS 0.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1563*4*1.05 = 0.6565, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.01/11.87 (DPS 0.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1447*4*1.05 = 0.6077, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/12.87 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5394*1.1 = 0.5933, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.88/12.73 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1456*4 = 0.5824, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.59 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1404*4 = 0.5616, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.48/11.75 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1246*4 = 0.4984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/13.1 (DPS 0.08)

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