Company Info
My Analysis
Research House
Accounting Ratio
My notes based on 2011 quarter 5 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q1 was primarily driven by strong prices seen across most petrochemical products, partially offset by a stronger Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar
- During the quarter, there was methane gas supply limitation for the Fertiliser and Methanol segment. This affected the production of fertiliser, methanol and ammonia. The gas supply constraint, however, did not affect the availability of ethane and propane for Olefins and Derivatives segment, which continues to be the key contributor to the Group’s results
- In addition, there was significant level of maintenance activities, which combined with the gas supply limitations, led to lower plant utilisation and reduced production volume for the quarter
- Higher pbt than FY11Q1 due to higher product prices and lower feedstock costs
- Lower revenue than FY11Q4 mainly due to significant level of maintenance activities and methane gas supply limitations
- Lower share of profits from associates and jointly controlled entities due to higher average effective tax rates of our associates
- Higher tax expense due to a once-off recognition of deferred tax assets in the preceding quarter
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.0921+0.105)*2*0.95 = 0.3745, estimate PE on current price 6.16 = 15.94(DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1165*4 = 0.466, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.45 (DPS 0.19)
- Yearly net eps, 2008 = 0.491, 2009 = 0.352, 2010 = 0.275
PCHEM latest news (English)
PCHEM latest news (Chinese)
| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 49,280,000,000 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 0.10 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (6.16-0.19)/0.3745 = 15.94 (Moderate) |
| Target Price | 5.99+0.19 = 6.18 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.3745, DPS 0.19) |
| Decision | Not interested unless stock price sustain above 6.4 |
| Comment | Revenue decreased 23.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.8%, eps decreased 20.9% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by plant maintenance activities |
| First Support Price | 6.0 |
| Second Support Price | 5.5 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| JP Morgan Target Price | 7.8 (2011-03-09) |
| Credit Suisse Target Price | 8.5 (2011-04-05) |
| OSK Target Price | 9.28 (2011-05-30) |
| AMMB Target Price | 8.43 (2011-06-01) |
| MIDF Target Price | 6.82 (2011-08-08) |
| CIMB Target Price | 9.7 (2011-08-24) |
| Maybank Target Price | 8.15 (2011-08-29) |
| RHB Target Price | 6.37 (2011-08-29) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 3.39% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% |
| Profit Margin | 31.63% |
| Tax Rate | 23.06% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.5031 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 2.54 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 2.28 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 2.64 |
| Cash Per Share | 1.24 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 5.7333 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 5.1549 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 4.4239 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.3743 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.259 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 72.0% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 44 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 37 |
| Days to pay the payables | 58 |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 5 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q1 was primarily driven by strong prices seen across most petrochemical products, partially offset by a stronger Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar
- During the quarter, there was methane gas supply limitation for the Fertiliser and Methanol segment. This affected the production of fertiliser, methanol and ammonia. The gas supply constraint, however, did not affect the availability of ethane and propane for Olefins and Derivatives segment, which continues to be the key contributor to the Group’s results
- In addition, there was significant level of maintenance activities, which combined with the gas supply limitations, led to lower plant utilisation and reduced production volume for the quarter
- Higher pbt than FY11Q1 due to higher product prices and lower feedstock costs
- Lower revenue than FY11Q4 mainly due to significant level of maintenance activities and methane gas supply limitations
- Lower share of profits from associates and jointly controlled entities due to higher average effective tax rates of our associates
- Higher tax expense due to a once-off recognition of deferred tax assets in the preceding quarter
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.0921+0.105)*2*0.95 = 0.3745, estimate PE on current price 6.16 = 15.94(DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1165*4 = 0.466, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.45 (DPS 0.19)
- Yearly net eps, 2008 = 0.491, 2009 = 0.352, 2010 = 0.275
PCHEM latest news (English)
PCHEM latest news (Chinese)
No comments:
Post a Comment