KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2012 Quarter 1

PROTON HOLDINGS BERHAD

Company Description

Proton Holdings Berhad operates in the automobile industry. The Company is engaged in manufacturing, assembling, trading and the provision of engineering, and other services in respect of motor vehicles and related products. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in vehicle engineering, research and development, manufacturing, distribution sales and after-sales services. The portfolio of PROTON models includes the family-sedan Waja, Gen.2, Perdana V6, Arena, Saga range, Savvy, Satria Neo and the Persona. Its subsidiaries include Perusahaan Otomobil Nasional Sdn. Bhd., Proton Tanjung Malim Sdn. Bhd., Proton Marketing Sdn. Bhd. and Lotus Advance Technologies Sdn. Bhd. On May 15, 2008, the Company acquired Lotus Lightweight Structures Holdings Ltd. During the fiscal year end March 31, 2009, the Company liquidated Smith & Sons Motors Ltd, Proton Direct Ltd., Proton Cars (Europe) Ltd.

Company Info

Listing Date	1992-06-26
Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,449,922,325 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00
Board	Main
Sector	Consumer Products
Major Industry	Automotive Manufacturing & Distribution
Sub Industry	Automotive Related Services
Website	http://www.proton.com/

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.64-0.2)/0.3142 = 7.77 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.14+0.2 = 3.34 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.3142, DPS 0.2)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price got strong uptrend signal
Comment	Revenue decreased 14.7% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.5%, eps decreased 92.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 94.6% (due to LGIL expenses), low cash generated from operating but cash from financing more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	2.5
Second Support Price	2.4
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	4.7 (2011-01-10)
UOB Target Price	3.75 (2011-02-17)
TA Target Price	4.52 (2011-02-28)
AMMB Target Price	5.1 (2011-03-04)
JF Apex Target Price	4.48 (2011-05-24)
Affin Target Price	3.3 (2011-06-03)
CIMB Target Price	3.5 (2011-09-26)
MIDF Target Price	2.7 (2011-10-04)
OSK Target Price	2 (2011-10-12)
Maybank Target Price	2.64 (2011-10-18)
RHB Target Price	2.9 (2011-10-19)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	1.32%
Dividend Yield	3.79%
Profit Margin	0.54%
Tax Rate	62.39%
Asset Turnover	1.1093
Net Asset Value Per Share	9.86
Net Tangible Asset per share	8.03
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.37
Cash Per Share	2.58
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.1443
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4767
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.7367
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4863
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3272
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	24.7%
Days to sell the inventory	50
Days to collect the receivables	58
Days to pay the payables	65

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt largely attributed by higher expenses incurred by Lotus Group International Limited (LGIL) however is partially offset by a higher revenue from an increase in PROTON's domestic sales volume compared to FY11Q1

- Lower pbt compared to FY11Q4 other than above mention also due to a normalization in the trend of customer's demand for the Inspira and drop in the financing approval rate by local financial institutions in June 2011

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1122*4*0.7 = 0.3142(exclude LGIL expenses), estimate PE on current price 2.64 = 7.77(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.2326*0.95 = 0.221, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.38/12.58 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.12*0.95*3-0.1094 = 0.2326(estimate average 5% lower profit from FY11Q2 for next 3 quarter and FY12Q3 still loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.98/13.16 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/8.33 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/9.28 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

PROTON latest news (English)

PROTON latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2011-08-26	2012	1	N/A	N/A	-	0.08%	0.08%	2233345	2233345	12107	12107	4554	4554	0.0083	0.0083	8045488	2632423	-	5413065	4772	223189	384779	1216379	218417	166362	1382741	549213	549213	1647639	2011-06-30	0.54%	62.39%	1.1093	-	9.86	8.03	0.37	2.58	2.1443	1.4767	0.7367	0.4863	0.3272	24.7%	50	58	65
2011-05-25	2011	4	3.6	2.98	0.1	1.14%	2.81%	2618275	8981732	80855	215234	61643	152143	0.1122	0.2770	7653907	2247167	-	5406740	284451	796505	96538	1615018	512054	415516	1199502	549213	549213	1850847	2011-03-31	3.09%	23.76%	1.1735	12.1652	9.84	8.19	0.41	2.36	1.742	1.1936	0.5895	0.4156	0.2936	18.2%	48	54	67
2011-02-25	2011	3	4.05	3.16	-	1.12%	1.69%	1833061	6363457	51535	134379	60100	90500	0.1094	0.1648	7553114	2207502	-	5345612	61487	745497	123952	1622927	806984	683032	939895	549213	549213	2246281	2010-12-31	2.81%	-	1.1421	-	9.73	7.96	0.51	1.77	1.7076	0.9337	0.4542	0.413	0.2923	17.6%	69	41	65
2010-11-25	2011	2	4.98	4.04	-	1.22%	2.79%	2240509	4530396	81265	185914	65919	150600	0.1200	0.2742	7493840	2096333	-	5397507	60568	433847	30963	1615103	373279	342316	1272787	549213	549213	2597777	2010-09-30	3.63%	18.88%	1.1753	-	9.83	8.32	0.57	2.4	1.9149	1.1918	0.6739	0.3884	0.2797	20.3%	58	40	63
2010-08-23	2011	1	5.03	4.52	0.2	1.56%	1.56%	2289887	2289887	104647	104647	84679	84679	0.1542	0.1542	7447675	2036116	-	5411559	138934	168312	32052	1610439	29378	61430	1549009	549213	549213	2559332	2010-06-30	4.57%	19.08%	1.1642	-	9.85	8.56	0.54	2.92	1.9314	1.256	0.8253	0.3763	0.2734	20.9%	55	33	67
2010-05-26	2010	4	4.77	4.35	-	0.43%	4.48%	2263311	8232952	37030	285019	22799	239089	0.0415	0.4353	7505151	2172162	-	5332989	1290090	392273	173704	881996	897817	724113	1606109	549213	549213	2438505	2010-03-31	1.64%	38.43%	1.097	10.1992	9.71	8.63	0.51	3.03	1.89	1.2979	0.8017	0.4073	0.2894	22.4%	54	43	76
2010-02-19	2010	3	5.03	4.0	-	1.67%	4.54%	2013533	5969641	82958	247988	79678	216289	0.1451	0.3938	6740442	1978364	-	4762078	897670	309730	137138	908877	587940	450802	1359679	549213	549213	2185867	2009-12-31	4.12%	3.95%	1.0936	-	8.67	8.62	0.46	2.74	2.0016	1.3243	0.8193	0.4154	0.2935	25.0%	58	43	68
2009-11-23	2010	2	4.34	3.7	-	1.56%	2.59%	2104090	3956108	100652	165031	82062	136613	0.1494	0.2487	7075541	1801636	-	5273905	771437	157344	85441	910034	614093	528652	1438686	549213	549213	2015611	2009-09-30	4.78%	18.47%	0.9745	-	9.6	8.62	0.43	2.75	2.1203	1.4244	0.9242	0.3416	0.2546	26.6%	56	41	61
2009-08-18	2010	1	4.6	2.9	-	1.05%	1.05%	1852018	1852018	64379	64379	54551	54551	0.0993	0.0993	7265010	2069454	-	5195556	299957	76933	18297	914131	223024	204727	1118858	549213	549213	1570749	2009-06-30	3.48%	15.27%	0.9126	-	9.46	8.55	0.33	2.17	1.9112	1.1676	0.6318	0.3983	0.2849	25.9%	71	52	72
2009-05-29	2009	4	3.07	2.53	-	6.33%	5.92%	1401978	6486570	373564	319201	322969	301806	0.5881	0.5495	7098898	1997358	-	5101540	368406	771274	144778	1157561	402868	258090	899471	549213	549213	1636654	2009-03-31	26.65%	-	0.9137	-	9.29	8.45	0.35	1.69	1.8268	1.0862	0.4933	0.3915	0.2814	24.0%	72	52	71
2009-02-27	2009	3	3.2	1.5	-	1.39%	0.39%	1537271	5084592	60945	54363	74674	21163	0.1360	0.0385	7303817	1915884	-	5387933	265297	386354	124856	1154599	121057	3799	1158398	549213	549213	972107	2008-12-31	3.96%	-	0.9313	-	9.81	9.1	0.19	2.16	1.9754	1.1892	0.6714	0.3556	0.2623	25.4%	73	42	69
2008-11-27	2009	2	2.04	1.7	0.05	0.79%	1.74%	1838516	3547321	56608	115308	43811	95837	0.0798	0.1745	7326958	1806766	-	5520192	423665	225482	52452	1170541	198183	250635	1421176	549213	549213	988583	2008-09-30	3.08%	22.61%	0.9171	-	10.05	9.39	0.19	2.64	2.1712	1.4273	0.8882	0.3273	0.2466	28.5%	65	40	69
2008-08-27	2009	1	3.14	1.6	-	0.95%	0.95%	1708805	1708805	58700	58700	52026	52026	0.0947	0.0947	7350629	1869878	-	5480751	259104	101444	3878	1177759	157660	161538	1339297	549213	549213	1636654	2008-06-30	3.44%	11.37%	0.8418	-	9.98	9.36	0.32	2.56	2.1812	1.4688	0.8604	0.3412	0.2544	31.2%	68	49	78
2008-05-26	2008	4	3.86	2.9	-	4.01%	3.40%	1717418	5621594	175182	144316	217470	184551	0.3960	0.3360	7293348	1872092	-	5421256	843611	433802	294485	469645	409809	704294	1173939	549213	549213	2054056	2008-03-31	10.20%	-	0.7708	11.13	9.87	9.32	0.4	2.27	2.1023	1.4311	0.7606	0.3453	0.2567	32.1%	69	64	84
2008-02-21	2008	3	4.14	3.6	-	0.20%	0.63%	1454945	3904176	11030	30867	10329	32919	0.0188	0.0599	7162168	1963577	-	5198591	434077	345226	362944	471739	88851	451795	923534	549213	549213	2262757	2007-12-31	0.76%	6.36%	0.7205	-	9.47	9.01	0.46	1.83	2.126	1.2859	0.6595	0.3777	0.2742	33.3%	88	63	81
2007-11-30	2008	2	4.44	3.62	-	0.07%	0.83%	1306821	2449231	4951	41896	3506	43248	0.0064	0.0787	7040240	1848066	-	5192174	166173	214275	250012	472638	48102	201910	674548	549213	549213	1977166	2007-09-30	0.38%	29.19%	0.663	-	9.45	9.01	0.4	1.46	2.2732	1.3167	0.5694	0.3559	0.2625	38.3%	96	77	79
2007-08-28	2008	1	5.3	3.54	-	0.90%	0.90%	1142411	1142411	46845	46845	46753	46753	0.0851	0.0851	6949289	1761629	-	5187660	37823	113642	9001	471038	151465	142464	328574	549213	549213	3295278	2007-06-30	4.10%	-	0.4837	-	9.45	9.03	0.66	0.98	2.0301	1.0951	0.3464	0.3396	0.2535	47.7%	141	114	114
2007-05-31	2007	4	N/A	N/A	-	0.02%	11.27%	1256377	4911841	10101	618129	915	589533	0.0017	1.0734	6946767	1716179	-	5230588	96592	272991	141367	699680	369583	228216	471464	549213	549213	3652266	2007-03-31	0.80%	-	0.3194	-	9.52	9.16	0.73	1.27	2.0639	1.2335	0.4563	0.3281	0.247	73.5%	182	167	167
2007-02-27	2007	3	N/A	N/A	-	5.39%	11.31%	962273	3655464	272012	608028	281455	590448	0.5125	1.0751	7100329	1877860	-	5222469	3800	523991	243692	688483	520191	276499	411984	549213	549213	3624805	2006-12-31	28.27%	-	0.1355	-	9.51	9.18	0.72	1.53	1.7552	1.024	0.4618	0.3596	0.2645	143.2%	390	370	345

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Deferred tax assets (A-0)	Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)	Intangible assets (A-0)	Investment in associated companies (A-0)	Investment properties (A-0)	Other investments (A-0)	Prepaid lease payments (A-0)	Property, plant and equipment (A-0)	Available-for-sale financial assets (A-1)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)	Current tax assets (A-1)	Derivative assets (A-1)	Inventories (A-1)	Trade receivables (A-1)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-0)	Other liabilities (L-0)	Current tax liabilities (L-1)	Dividend payable (L-1)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Provision for liabilities (L-1)	Trade and other payables (L-1)
2012	1	18461	29008	973015	369000	-	-	-	2529146	4495	1413260	-	5067	-	1284882	1419154	7887	667378	32602	11528	-	96141	157354	1659533
2011	4	16740	29008	877395	366729	-	-	-	2529861	4541	1293033	-	8769	-	1207071	1320760	8186	9746	28245	12868	-	361466	143519	1683137
2011	3	13661	29008	946861	357966	-	-	-	2544044	4574	969327	35197	18201	3988	1659381	970906	10481	19148	33607	12182	-	377293	191178	1563613
2011	2	13265	29008	798322	354296	-	-	-	2548618	4741	1315036	35536	18768	4754	1416166	955330	10642	19532	107687	17389	82382	135373	188188	1535140
2011	1	15657	29008	678979	354737	-	-	-	2615954	9611	1594285	36969	18620	3622	1312431	777802	10705	24603	57486	21528	-	119495	199646	1602653
2010	4	15033	29008	563963	355184	-	-	-	2624418	9676	1652089	36931	25301	-	1227212	966336	10740	29649	59001	12099	-	142236	184404	1734033
2010	3	10118	29008	-	355547	10049	5632	-	2653054	9706	1495465	32033	19755	-	1244242	875833	11701	38591	91010	20772	-	149876	204921	1461493
2010	2	8827	29008	509459	354171	9015	10397	-	2685627	11248	1500926	32033	19769	-	1138462	766599	11798	44568	109135	20380	-	181754	202586	1231415
2010	1	5905	29008	471572	358509	-	10397	-	2782540	11231	1181098	38136	37181	-	1403495	935938	12283	58600	111267	14160	-	243385	211875	1417884
2009	4	5727	29008	431668	353989	-	10397	-	2827111	15313	913850	36412	160610	-	1395081	919732	12243	52225	49291	6322	-	306039	189779	1381459
2009	3	-	29008	360078	342723	-	10397	-	3065828	15450	1172760	45179	94814	-	1391344	776236	7426	55253	83510	10502	20595	240266	182109	1316223
2009	2	-	29008	335509	354779	-	10397	-	3049674	16639	1434598	45179	96545	-	1215488	739142	5925	74802	92089	6020	-	180796	172348	1274786
2009	1	-	29008	312376	355956	-	10397	-	3083377	17601	1386429	45179	112268	-	1162594	835444	5310	132534	100132	3862	-	109475	177844	1340721
2008	4	-	29008	275192	358190	-	10397	24031	3150446	20822	1226010	-	114479	-	1100286	984487	2439	130884	99589	1556	-	113606	186556	1337462
2008	3	-	29008	220276	364648	-	10397	10585	3282570	21580	984971	-	71385	-	1282121	884627	723	327668	108986	1430	-	158229	182060	1184481
2008	2	-	29008	214490	361319	-	10397	10598	3218491	30734	769740	-	71902	-	1344751	978810	745	331633	109792	2224	-	107348	189719	1106605
2008	1	-	29008	196715	394132	-	10397	10422	3147347	33544	505803	13445	98855	-	1456053	1053568	754	95696	107979	2236	-	178752	192281	1183931
2007	4	-	29008	169075	393308	-	10397	10657	3168782	73448	626475	-	176048	-	1273612	1015957	754	76150	105487	2222	-	164426	196067	1171073
2007	3	128771	29008	152066	404549	-	10397	-	3171998	216155	626682	-	51086	-	1334566	975051	772	-	51877	16964	-	423747	204272	1180228

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Finance/interest costs	Other income	Administrative/Operating expenses	Share of profit/ (loss) of associates
2012	1	2233345	7553	6346	74183	2295018	5943
2011	4	2618275	19212	4520	275098	2813935	5937
2011	3	1833061	8565	4041	84855	1975546	10136
2011	2	2240509	15346	2136	50405	2214741	7228
2011	1	2289887	19968	1997	33487	2220797	4067
2010	4	2263311	14231	3484	185683	2416369	7889
2010	3	2013533	3280	2180	75024	2009033	5614
2010	2	2104090	18590	2199	37309	2040265	1717
2010	1	1852018	9828	3743	27800	1815246	3550
2009	4	1401978	50595	3478	142856	1936041	21121
2009	3	1537271	13729	3108	38253	1634207	846
2009	2	1838516	12797	4111	53362	1839187	8028
2009	1	1708805	6674	3711	44080	1695293	4819
2008	4	1717418	42288	4298	236294	1781739	7507
2008	3	1454945	701	5346	22267	1468250	7414
2008	2	1306821	1445	4529	34355	1335900	4204
2008	1	1142411	92	3763	35755	1223095	1847
2007	4	1256377	11016	6351	44250	1308135	3758
2007	3	962273	9443	9208	26255	1249163	2169

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue

year	qrt	Elimination/Adjustment	Investment holding and others	Malaysia	Others Countries	Proton Manufacturing	Proton Selling & Manufacturing	Lotus Selling & Manufacturing
2011	4	6799300	140500	-	-	7031500	7882000	727000
2011	3	-	-	1557100	276000	-	-	-
2011	2	-	-	1995100	245400	-	-	-
2011	1	-	-	1967800	322100	-	-	-
2010	4	128400	-	1946800	445000	-	-	-
2010	3	105800	-	1815800	303500	-	-	-
2010	2	51900	-	1868300	287700	-	-	-
2010	1	28700	-	1651400	229300	-	-	-
2009	4	-	-	1255900	146100	-	-	-
2009	3	-	-	1364900	172400	-	-	-
2009	2	-	-	1602400	228600	-	-	-
2009	1	-	-	1466400	249900	-	-	-
2008	4	29000	-	1496600	257000	-	-	-
2008	3	20900	-	1263200	212800	-	-	-
2008	2	35800	-	1052100	290500	-	-	-
2008	1	62300	-	927300	277400	-	-	-
2007	4	79000	-	1014300	330600	-	-	-
2007	3	84100	-	751200	295200	-	-	-

Financial Quarter Segments Profit

year	qrt	Elimination/Adjustment	Investment holding and others	Malaysia	Others Countries	Proton Manufacturing	Proton Selling & Manufacturing	Lotus Selling & Manufacturing
2011	4	40000	12000	-	-	189000	176100	149300
2011	3	-	-	27000	34600	-	-	-
2011	2	-	-	117600	43600	-	-	-
2011	1	-	-	91600	9000	-	-	-
2010	4	87700	-	53900	400	-	-	-
2010	3	2100	-	67100	3700	-	-	-
2010	2	26400	-	83100	33100	-	-	-
2010	1	5600	-	60400	2600	-	-	-
2009	4	-	-	18300	69000	-	-	-
2009	3	-	-	35700	30400	-	-	-
2009	2	-	-	52300	7400	-	-	-
2009	1	-	-	45900	4500	-	-	-
2008	4	-	-	188400	8200	-	-	-
2008	3	12500	-	16800	3000	-	-	-
2008	2	4600	-	2700	9400	-	-	-
2008	1	7900	-	59900	200	-	-	-
2007	4	2100	-	73500	64400	-	-	-
2007	3	64900	-	295000	58200	-	-	-

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables

CURRENT

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
●ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

---

●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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1-Year Historical Daily Chart


5-Year Historical Weekly Chart

KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,949,706,157 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.55-0.2)/0.221 = 15.16 (High)
Target Price	2.65+0.2 = 2.85 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.221, DPS 0.2)
Decision	Not interested unless profit exclude other income increase more
Comment	Revenue increased 42.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.7%, eps increased 202.6%(due to high other income) and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 170.4%, cash generated from operating and financing also not enough to cover investing activities, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting periods are good
First Support Price	3.4
Second Support Price	3.16
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	4.7 (2011-01-10)
UOB Target Price	3.75 (2011-02-17)
Maybank Target Price	3.4 (2011-02-28)
RHB Target Price	4 (2011-02-28)
TA Target Price	4.52 (2011-02-28)
CIMB Target Price	4.5 (2011-03-03)
AMMB Target Price	5.1 (2011-03-04)
JF Apex Target Price	4.48 (2011-05-24)
MIDF Target Price	4 (2011-05-26)
OSK Target Price	3.89 (2011-05-26)
Affin Target Price	3.3 (2011-06-03)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	2.82%
Dividend Yield	5.63%
Profit Margin	3.09%
Tax Rate	23.76%
Asset Turnover	1.1553
Net Asset Value Per Share	9.84
Net Tangible Asset per share	8.19
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.41
Cash Per Share	2.33
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.7239
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1956
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.5578
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4388
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.305
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	18.5%
Days to sell the inventory	48
Days to collect the receivables	59
Days to pay the payables	70

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- High profit is from R&D grant income under the Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Program, higher sales of PROTON cars and to a lesser extent

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.2326*0.95 = 0.221, estimate PE on current price 3.55 = 14.83(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.12*0.95*3-0.1094 = 0.2326(estimate average 5% lower profit from FY11Q2 for next 3 quarter and FY12Q3 still loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.98/13.16 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/8.33 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/9.28 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

PROTON latest news (English)

PROTON latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,867,324,206 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.4-0.1)/0.2326 = 14.19 (High)
Target Price	3.02+0.1 = 3.12 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.2326, DPS 0.1)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit higher than FY11Q2
Comment	Revenue decreased 18.2% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing but also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 9%, eps decreased 191.2% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 175.4%, no cash generated from operating but still largely spent in investing hence increased borrowing, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting periods are good, higher inventory expect higher revenue in next coming quarter, Malaysia revenue decreased
First Support Price	3.4
Second Support Price	3.16
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

Affin Target Price	4.6 (2010-11-26)
HwangDBS Target Price	4.7 (2011-01-10)
UOB Target Price	3.75 (2011-02-17)
Maybank Target Price	3.4 (2011-02-28)
RHB Target Price	4 (2011-02-28)
TA Target Price	4.52 (2011-02-28)
CIMB Target Price	4.5 (2011-03-03)
AMMB Target Price	5.1 (2011-03-04)
MIDF Target Price	5.2 (2011-04-18)
OSK Target Price	4.78 (2011-04-18)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	2.12%
Dividend Yield	5.88%
Profit Margin	-2.81%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	1.1421
Net Asset Value Per Share	9.73
Net Tangible Asset per share	7.96
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.51
Cash Per Share	1.76
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.7076
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.9316
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.4521
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.413
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2923
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	17.6%
Days to sell the inventory	69
Days to collect the receivables	41
Days to pay the payables	65

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The decline in profit is largely attributable to higher branding costs as well as restructuring expenses incurred by Lotus Group International Limited ("LGIL"). As part of the transformation plans to turn around LGIL, the Group started investing in rationalization of dealers network and branding activities to deliver the 5-year business plans

- During the quarter, the Group experienced lower domestics sales volume as well as increased promotional and marketing spending by a principal subsidiary

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.12*0.95*3-0.1094 = 0.2326(estimate average 5% lower profit from FY11Q2 for next 3 quarter and FY12Q3 still loss), estimate PE on current price 3.4 = 14.19(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/8.33 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/9.28 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

PROTON latest news (English)

PROTON latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,471,458,509 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.5-0.2)/0.4608 = 9.33 (Moderate)
Target Price	4.61+0.2 = 4.81 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.4608, DPS 0.2)
Decision	NOT BUY unless price below 4.3
Comment	Revenue decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps decreased and lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, neither got free nor positive net cash flow, low liquidity ratio, below moderate gearing ratio, all accounting period are good
First Support Price	4.45
Second Support Price	4.15
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

UOB Target Price	5.2 (2010-11-19)
Affin Target Price	4.6 (2010-11-26)
MIDF Target Price	5.2 (2010-11-26)
OSK Target Price	6.18 (2010-11-26)
RHB Target Price	5.6 (2010-11-26)
HwangDBS Target Price	4.7 (2011-01-10)
CIMB Target Price	5.95 (2011-01-21)
AMMB Target Price	6.1 (2011-01-24)
Maybank Target Price	5.9 (2011-01-24)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	4.89%
Dividend Yield	4.44%
Profit Margin	3.63%
Tax Rate	18.88%
Asset Turnover	1.1753
Net Asset Value Per Share	9.83
Net Tangible Asset per share	8.32
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.57
Cash Per Share	2.4
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.9149
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1894
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6739
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3884
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2797
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	20.3%
Days to sell the inventory	59
Days to collect the receivables	40
Days to pay the payables	63

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Improvement in sentiments continued to generate demand for PROTON vehicles. In line with the improved market conditions, domestic sales for the 3-core models grew by 13% compared to the corresponding period last year

- Correspondingly, Group pbt for the six months ended 30 September 2010 of RM186 million compares favourably to the profit of RM165 million posted in the corresponding period last year. Higher domestic sales volume and improved profit margins largely contributed to the surge in profit

- Group pbt at RM81 million was lower than RM105 million recorded in the immediate preceding quarter. Despite a slight increase in domestic sales volume, the profit declined and this is largely attributable to the one-off provision for stock obsolescence and branding cost incurred by a principal subsidiary company

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4608, estimate PE on current price 4.5 = 9.33(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/9.28 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

PROTON latest news (English)

PROTON latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2011 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 549213002*4.88 = 2,680,159,449.76 (Large)
NTA per share : (5411559-29008-678979)/549213 = 8.56
P/BV : 4.88/8.56 = 0.5701
Forecast P/E now : (4.88-0.2)/0.4657 = 10.05 (High)
ROE : 4.99% (Low)
DY : 0.2/4.88*100 = 4.1% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.1642+0.9126+0.8418)/3 = 0.9729 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 3753340/1943322 = 1.9314 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (777802+935938)/2/(8670821/365) = 36 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 4.66+0.2 = 4.86 (PE 10, EPS 0.4657, DPS 0.2)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 4.4
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing but slow down, strong cash, below moderate debt and decreasing, navps increasing, new model coming soon, interest rate increase, fuel price hike, merger possibility
Technical Support Price : 4.4
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 5.67 (30 Aug 10)

My study based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):

- The Group achieved a 64.1% higher in profit before tax compared to the corresponding period last year. Higher sales volume and improved profit margins from better mix largely accounted for the improved performance

- Market sentiments improved, PROTON's domestic sales volume grew by 17% arising from demands for the 3 core models, Saga, Persona and Exora

- Group profit before taxation was 14% better than the immediate preceding quarter which included additional provision for inventory write-down and doubtful debts, as well as write-back of impairment loss. Operationally without the effect of the provision and write-back, the operation profit at RM75 million is an improvement of 40% compared to the previous quarter

- The improved performance in the current quarter is largely attributable to higher sales volume and improved margins

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate PE on current price 4.88 = 10.05(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

PROTON latest news (English)

KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 549213002*4.5 = 2,471,458,509 (Large)
NTA per share : (5352470-29008-549944)/549213 = 8.69
P/BV : 4.5/8.69 = 0.5178
Forecast P/E now : 4.5/0.4571 = 9.84 (Moderate)
ROE : 4.47% (Low)
DY : Not Applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (1.0954+0.9137+0.7708+0.7071)/4 = 0.8718 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 3888574/2054396 = 1.8928 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (989734+919732)/2/(8232952/365) = 42 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 4.57 (PE 10, EPS 0.4571)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 4.2
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, good cash flow, debt decreased, navps increased
Technical Support Price : 4.4, 4.2
Risk Rating : MODERATE (operating expenses increased)
OSK Target Price : 5.67 (07 June 10)

My study based on 2010 Q4 report (number in '000):
- PROTON's domestic sales volume grew by 8% compared to the last financial year and this was primarily driven by robust sales of the 3 core-models, Persona, Saga and Exora resulting in an increase in domestic market share from 26% to 28% this year
- The Group achieved profit before tax for the current quarter which compares favourably to the loss recorded in the last financial year. This improvement in performance was largely attributable to introduction of more saleable models with better profit margins and write back of impairment of Property, plant and equipment no longer required, whilst the recognition of Research and Development (R&D) grant under the Second Economic Stimulus Package was effectively offset by R&D expenditure
- Group profit was 55% lower than immediate preceding quarter. The quarter-on-quarter decline in profit was substantially due to additional allowances for inventory write-down and doubtful debts, higher seasonal promotional expenses, as well as higher R&D expenditure although partly offset by recognition of R&D grant
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate PE on current price 4.5 = 9.84
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

PROTON latest news (English)

PROTON / 5304 - 2010 Q3

My TP: 5.8+0.05=5.85 (PE 10, EPS 0.5804, DPS 0.05)
OSK TP: 5.9
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue growth, good cash flow, low debt

My study based on 2010 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.11% to 1.67% and also higher than last year 3.06%
- Revenue compare to last Q dropped 4.3% to 2013533 and profit also dropped 2.91% to 79678, mainly due to decline in domestic sales volume and higher promotional costs required to drive sales; As compare to last year revenue growth 30.98% and profit growth 206.7%, mainly due to domestic sales volume growth and better profit margins on he strength of sales of the Exora, Persona and Saga
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 9.7% to 4762078, assets decreased 4.74% to 6740442 but liabilities increased 9.81% to 1978364; As compare to last year equity decreased 11.62%, assets decreased 7.71% but liabilities increased 3.26%
- Got FCF 587940, NCF 450802
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.06% to 3.96% and also higher than last year 8.82%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0738 to 0.4154 and compare to last year also increased 0.0598
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate PE on current price 3.98 = 6.77 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-11-24 to 2010-02-19 after 2010 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-21 was 4.33 and lowest price on 2009-11-24 was 3.71. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-08-19 to 2009-11-23 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-23 was 4.48 and lowest price on 2009-08-19 was 2.93. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-05-30 to 2009-08-18 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 3.06 and lowest price on 2009-06-22 was 2.61.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-31 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-21 was 3.12 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 1.5.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.05 (proposed 5 sen on Q2)

PROTON / 5304 - 2010 Q2

My TP: 6.03 (PE 10, EPS 0.5976, DPS 0.05)
OSK TP: 5.9
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue growth, good cash flow, low debt

My study based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.51% to 1.56% and also higher than last year 0.77%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 13.61% to 2104090 and profit also increased 50.43% to 82062, mainly due to higher domestic sales volume and profit margins which continued to strengthen through better product mix; As compare to last year revenue growth 14.45% and profit growth 87.31%, mainly due to improvement in overall margins resulting from the introduction of the Exora
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.51% to 5273905, assets decreased 2.61% to 7075541 and liabilities decreased 12.94% to 1801636; As compare to last year equity decreased 4.46%, assets decreased 3.43% and liabilities decreased 0.28%
- Got FCF 614093, NCF 528652
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.95% to 3.9% and also higher than last year 1.52%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0567 to 0.3416 but compare to last year increased 0.0143
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate PE on current price 4 = 6.61 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-08-19 to 2009-11-23 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-23 was 4.48 and lowest price on 2009-08-19 was 2.93. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-05-30 to 2009-08-18 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 3.06 and lowest price on 2009-06-22 was 2.61.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-31 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-21 was 3.12 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 1.5.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.05 (proposed 5 sen on Q2)