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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,471,458,509 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(4.5-0.2)/0.4608 = 9.33 (Moderate)
Target Price4.61+0.2 = 4.81 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.4608, DPS 0.2)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 4.3
Revenue decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps decreased and lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, neither got free nor positive net cash flow, low liquidity ratio, below moderate gearing ratio, all accounting period are good
First Support Price4.45
Second Support Price4.15

Research House
UOB Target Price5.2 (2010-11-19)
Affin Target Price4.6 (2010-11-26)
MIDF Target Price5.2 (2010-11-26)
OSK Target Price6.18 (2010-11-26)
RHB Target Price5.6 (2010-11-26)
HwangDBS Target Price4.7 (2011-01-10)
CIMB Target Price5.95 (2011-01-21)
AMMB Target Price6.1 (2011-01-24)
Maybank Target Price5.9 (2011-01-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity4.89%
Dividend Yield4.44%
Profit Margin3.63%
Tax Rate18.88%
Asset Turnover1.1753
Net Asset Value Per Share9.83
Net Tangible Asset per share8.32
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.57
Cash Per Share2.4
Liquidity Current Ratio1.9149
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1894
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6739
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3884
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2797
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale20.3%
Days to sell the inventory59
Days to collect the receivables40
Days to pay the payables63

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Improvement in sentiments continued to generate demand for PROTON vehicles. In line with the improved market conditions, domestic sales for the 3-core models grew by 13% compared to the corresponding period last year

- Correspondingly, Group pbt for the six months ended 30 September 2010 of RM186 million compares favourably to the profit of RM165 million posted in the corresponding period last year. Higher domestic sales volume and improved profit margins largely contributed to the surge in profit

- Group pbt at RM81 million was lower than RM105 million recorded in the immediate preceding quarter. Despite a slight increase in domestic sales volume, the profit declined and this is largely attributable to the one-off provision for stock obsolescence and branding cost incurred by a principal subsidiary company

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4608, estimate PE on current price 4.5 = 9.33(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/9.28 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

PROTON latest news (English)

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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Now is a good time to buy

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