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Friday, January 14, 2011

KLCI Stock - DIALOG / 7277 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,374,760,220 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.2-0.031)/0.071 = 30.55 (High)
Target Price1.14+0.031 = 1.17 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.071, DPS 0.031)
DecisionNOT BUY
Revenue second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps increased but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, got free and positive net cash flow, low moderate liquidity ratio, above moderate gearing ratio, all accounting period are as usual, Pengerang project, New Zealand subsidiary, O&G job & price increasing
First Support Price1.75
Second Support Price1.5
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
MIDF Target Price1.65 (2010-11-23)
OSK Target Price1.47 (2010-12-02)
CIMB Target Price2.2 (2010-12-21)
MIMB Target Price2.15 (2010-12-27)
Maybank Target Price2.6 (2011-01-03)
RHB Target Price2.11 (2011-01-03)
AMMB Target Price2.49 (2011-01-12)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity23.71%
Dividend Yield1.41%
Profit Margin15.75%
Tax Rate18.07%
Asset Turnover1.2058
Net Asset Value Per Share0.26
Net Tangible Asset per share0.25
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share5.76
Cash Per Share0.14
Liquidity Current Ratio1.7859
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.698
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.8038
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.7184
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4015
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale24.1%
Days to sell the inventory11
Days to collect the receivables99
Days to pay the payables98

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s revenue for the current quarter of RM263.8 million was down by 15% compared to the same period last year. Lower revenue was recorded for both Malaysia and Asia Pacific countries mainly due to completion of major engineering & construction projects in the last financial year

- The Group’s profit after tax for the current quarter improved by 21% to RM34.0 million from RM28.0 million recorded in the same period last year. The better result was contributed mainly by the plant maintenance division which saw significant work performed and completed in current quarter both in Malaysia and Singapore. The commencement of operation by Langsat Terminal (One) Sdn Bhd in Tanjung Langsat, Johor in September 2009 for its Phase 1 and in April 2010 for its Phase 2, had also contributed positively to the Group’s financial results in the current quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0169*4*1.05 = 0.071(ROE 6% per quarter), estimate PE on current price 2.2 = 30.55(DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0146*4*1.05 = 0.0613, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.8/16.95 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0162*4*1.05 = 0.068(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.16 (DPS 0.037)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*2 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/11.5 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0193*4 = 0.0772, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.83/15.73 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0659*1.1 = 0.0725, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.4/15.64 (DPS 0.036)

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