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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

KLCI Stock - MUHIBAH / 5703 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)665,314,222 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now1.67/0.0962 = 17.36 (High)
Target Price0.0962*10.0 = 0.96 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0962)
DecisionNOT BUY
Revenue decreased and lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, neither got free nor positive net cash flow, liquidity ratio increasing to low level now, gearing ratio very high, receivables and payables period are high
First Support Price1.2
Second Support Price1.0
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
CIMB Target Price2 (2010-11-11)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity4.12%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin7.37%
Tax Rate40.88%
Asset Turnover0.7187
Net Asset Value Per Share0.84
Net Tangible Asset per share0.79
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.57
Cash Per Share0.55
Liquidity Current Ratio1.0309
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9301
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.128
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio6.0074
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8216
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale3.0%
Days to sell the inventory37
Days to collect the receivables283
Days to pay the payables247

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group reported a marginal lower consolidated profit before tax of RM49.58 million for the current period ended 30 September 2010 under review as compared to RM53.01 million for the last corresponding period ended 30 September 2009. The Shipyard and Cranes Divisions continue to be the main earnings contributor to the Group

- The consolidated profit before tax is higher by 9.7% from RM19.43 million for the second quarter of the current year to RM21.31 in the third quarter of the current year. This is mainly contributed by the Shipyard Division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0481*2 = 0.0962(although revenue decrease but offset by high tax rate), estimate PE on current price 1.67 = 17.36
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0266*4 = 0.1064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/7.99
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0135*4 = 0.054, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/15.74
- No estimate for 2009 Q4 result
- No estimate for 2009 Q3 result
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0362*4 = 0.1448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.29/6.94 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.17/4.04 (DPS 0.025)

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