KLCI Stock - PETGAS / 6033 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	22,161,797,448 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(11.2-0.5)/0.6266 = 17.08 (Moderate)
Target Price	12.53+0.5 = 13.03 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.6266, DPS 0.5)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps is highest all the time, free cash flow increased but net cash flow decreased, very strong liquidity ratio, low gearing ratio, all accounting period are good, gas price increasing
First Support Price	10.9
Second Support Price	10.7
Risk Rating	LOW

Research House

AMMB Target Price	13.6 (2010-12-01)
Maybank Target Price	14.1 (2010-12-01)
MIDF Target Price	12 (2010-12-01)
RHB Target Price	13.51 (2010-12-01)
OSK Target Price	13.54 (2011-01-21)
ECM Target Price	13.64 (2011-01-27)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	15.45%
Dividend Yield	4.46%
Profit Margin	58.21%
Tax Rate	23.04%
Asset Turnover	0.3381
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.09
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.09
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.72
Cash Per Share	1.28
Liquidity Current Ratio	11.5736
Liquidity Quick Ratio	11.0132
Liquidity Cash Ratio	9.6262
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2255
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.184
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	83.0%
Days to sell the inventory	28
Days to collect the receivables	40
Days to pay the payables	22

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Revenue for the quarter ended 30 September 2010 was RM868.4 million (quarter ended 30 September 2009: RM823.2 million). The increase was due to higher gas processing and gas transportation revenue

- Profit before tax for the quarter ended 30 September 2010 was RM505.5 million (quarter ended 30 September 2009: RM268.7 million). The increase in profit was mainly due to higher revenue and lower cost of revenue. Accordingly, profit after tax for the quarter ended 30 September 2010 was RM389.0 million (quarter ended 30 September 2009: RM204.0 million)

- Revenue for the current quarter was RM868.4 million, a decrease of RM4.2 million from the preceding quarter due to lower gas processing revenue

- Profit before tax for the current quarter of RM505.5 million was RM7.7 million lower than the preceding quarter mainly due to lower revenue and higher cost of revenue

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6266, estimate PE on current price 11.2 = 17.08(DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5331*0.95 = 0.5064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.63/19.31 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4612(3% dropped from 0.4755), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.47/19.8 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5(0.37+0.13), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.2/18.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.26 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.47 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/19.15 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/18.94 (DPS 0.05)

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