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Sunday, January 2, 2011

KLCI Stock - 3A / 0012 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)625,824,030 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.59-0.012)/0.06 = 26.30 (High)
Target Price0.60+0.012 = 0.61 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.06, DPS 0.012)
DecisionNOT BUY
Revenue is highest since FY06Q1, eps is lowest since FY06Q1, got free cash flow and positive net cash flow, liquidity ratio is highest since FY06Q1, gearing ratio is lowest since FY06Q1, all accounting period are acceptable compared to historical quarter, raw material increasing, new manufacturing plants
First Support Price1.55
Second Support Price1.2
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.24%
Dividend Yield0.75%
Profit Margin5.06%
Tax Rate20.19%
Asset Turnover0.9379
Net Asset Value Per Share0.51
Net Tangible Asset per share0.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.06
Cash Per Share0.13
Liquidity Current Ratio3.8162
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.8997
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.2895
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3368
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.252
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale46.8%
Days to sell the inventory62
Days to collect the receivables98
Days to pay the payables5

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- There is an increase of 45.7% in the turnover of the Group for the current quarter as compared to the corresponding quarter in the preceding year mainly due to better demand for the Group's products during the current quarter under review

- The Group's profit before taxation decrease 52.9% from preceding year corresponding quarter as a result of continuous increase in raw material costs

- The Group's turnover in the current quarter is 15.2% higher than immediate preceding quarter. Meanwhile, the pbt for the current quarter was lower by 49.5% than that recorded in the immediate preceding quarter. The reason is due to the continuous increase in raw material costs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.015*4 = 0.06(base on 3% roe per quarter), estimate PE on current price 1.59 = 26.3 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0286*3 = 0.0858(0.0286 is recent 2Q cum_eps, FYQ1-11 & FYQ2-11 to double as current), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.31/17.88 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.076, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.89/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.076 (~30% EPS grow), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.05/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.68/15.63 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.74/7.09 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.56/11.96 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.34 (DPS 0.01)

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