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Friday, January 7, 2011

KLCI Stock - SUNWAY / 4308 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,407,543,431 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(2.32-0.02)/0.1972 = 11.66 (Moderate)
Target Price2.37+0.02 = 2.39 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1972, DPS 0.02)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 2.2
Revenue decreased but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, free and net cash flow increasing, liquidity ratio decreasing to low level now, gearing ratio decreasing but still high level now, all accounting period are as usual compared to historical quarter, merges offer RM2.6 ps with SunCity
First Support Price2.2
Second Support Price2.0

Research House
ECM Target Price2.6 (2011-01-04)
OSK Target Price2.6 (2011-01-04)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity16.66%
Dividend Yield0.97%
Profit Margin12.48%
Tax Rate15.40%
Asset Turnover0.7796
Net Asset Value Per Share1.43
Net Tangible Asset per share1.23
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.8
Cash Per Share0.46
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1125
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8071
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2324
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.5841
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5893
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale7.5%
Days to sell the inventory78
Days to collect the receivables133
Days to pay the payables151

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded revenue of RM489.0 million and profit before taxation of RM61.0 million during the quarter under review. These results include RM4.9 million gains arising from the adoption of FRS 139

- The Group’s operating results continues to be driven by the construction, property development and trading and manufacturing divisions

- The Group recorded revenue and profit before taxation of RM489.0 million and RM61.0 million respectively during the current quarter as compared to revenue of RM509.2 million and profit before taxation of RM59.2 million in the immediate preceding quarter

- The results of the current quarter showed a slight improvement despite a drop in revenue mainly due to higher contribution from the construction division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.065*4 = 0.26, estimate PE on current price 2.31 = 8.81(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.058*0.85*4 = 0.1972(15% deduction adjustment due to segments result 20% lower than preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.56/7.86 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.058(exclude FRS 139)*4*1.1 = 0.2552(10% QbQ improvement adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.54/5.09 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q6 result announced = 0.041*4*1.1 = 0.1804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.48/7.1 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q5 result announced = 0.0318*4 = 0.1272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.95/8.88 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0352*4*1.1 = 0.1549, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.36/8.26 (DPS 0.03)

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