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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

KLCI Stock - PLUS / 5052 - 2010 Quarter 3

PLUS EXPRESSWAYS BERHAD

Company Description
PLUS EXPRESSWAYS BERHAD is involved in investment holding and the provision of expressway operation services. Its wholly owned subsidiary company, Projek Lebuhraya Utara-Selatan Berhad (PLUS) is involved in the operation and maintenance of a tolled expressway network comprising the North-South Interurban Toll Expressway (NSE), the New Klang Valley Expressway (NKVE), a section of Federal Highway Route 2 (FHR2) between Subang and Klang, and the Seremban-Port Dickson Highway (SPDH) in Peninsular Malaysia. On July 13, 2007, the Company acquired a foreign subsidiary, PT Lintas Marga Sedaya (LMS). On December 18, 2007, the Company acquired two local subsidiaries: Expressway Lingkaran Tengah Sdn Bhd (ELITE) and Linkedua Malaysia Berhad (LINKEDUA).

Company Info
Listing Date2002-07-17
Market Capital (Capital Size)22,850,000,000 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.25
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryExpressway Operation Services
Sub IndustryToll Collection
Websitehttp://www.plus.com.my

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(4.57-0.175)/0.28 = 15.70 (Moderate)
Target Price4.48+0.175 = 4.66 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.28, DPS 0.175)
DecisionNOT BUY unless RM26b bid deal
Comment
Revenue are second consecutive quarter increasing and highest since FY06Q4, eps are second consecutive increasing and highest since FY08Q1, free cash flow and net cash flow increasing, liquidity ratio decreased but still high level now, gearing ratio increasing to very high now, all accouting period are acceptable compared to historical quarter, high traffic volume, RM26b bid
First Support Price4.35
Second Support Price4.1
Risk RatingLOW

Research House
ECM Target Price5.2 (2010-12-21)
OSK Target Price5.2 (2010-12-21)
RHB Target Price5.2 (2010-12-21)
Maybank Target Price4.7 (2010-12-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity21.57%
Dividend Yield3.83%
Profit Margin49.95%
Tax Rate20.07%
Asset Turnover0.1814
Net Asset Value Per Share1.17
Net Tangible Asset per share1.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.76
Cash Per Share0.62
Liquidity Current Ratio2.9563
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.9562
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.6707
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.1944
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6849
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale66.3%
Days to sell the inventory-
Days to collect the receivables29
Days to pay the payables118

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group's toll collection for the third quarter 2010 (as set out in Remark 1 to the was higher by RM39.6 million or 6.5% as compared to the third quarter 2009. The increase was mainly due to increase in PLUS‟s toll collection by RM25.9 million. For the nine months ended 30 September 2010, the Group's toll collection of RM1,897.1 million was 9.6% higher than the preceding year corresponding period of RM1,731.7 million. The increase was mainly attributed by higher toll collection by PLUS of RM120.4 million driven by traffic growth of 7.4%

- The Group's total revenue and profit before tax also recorded similar growth trend. Total revenue for the current quarter of RM872.6 million was RM57.4 million or 7.0% higher than the preceding year corresponding quarter of RM815.2 million. The growth was primarily attributable to higher toll collection (as explained above) and higher toll compensation of RM12.6 million in line with higher traffic volume. For the nine months ended 30 September 2010, total revenue of RM2,545.6 million was RM220.4 million or 9.5% higher than the same period in 2009 of RM2,325.2 million. The increase was mainly due to higher toll collection (as explained above) and higher toll compensation of RM47.4 million

- Profit before income tax for the current quarter of RM435.9 million was RM13.9 million or 3.3% higher than the preceding year corresponding quarter of RM422.0 million, primarily attributable to higher toll revenue (as explained above), mitigated by higher finance costs as well as amortisation and depreciation charges. For the nine months ended 30 September 2010, profit before income tax was higher by RM109.6 million or 9.2% as compared to the same period in of RM1,187.4 million. This was mainly due to higher revenue mitigated by higher amortisation of concession assets by RM18.8 million, as well as increase in operating expenditure and higher finance costs of RM51.2 million

- Toll collection for the current quarter of RM644.2 million was lower by RM1.5 million as compared to the immediate preceding quarter of RM645.7 million following the effects of adopting IC Intepretation 13: Customer Loyalty Programmes. Without taking into effect the adjustment under IC Interpretation 13, toll collection for the current quarter was higher by RM0.4 million as compared to the immediate preceding quarter

- Total revenue for the current quarter of RM872.6 million was 1.5% or RM13.0 million higher than immediate preceding quarter of RM859.7 million mainly due to higher toll compensation in line with the traffic growth and inclusion of revenue from TERAS and INIPPL following the acquisitions in June 2010

- Profit before income tax for the current quarter of RM435.9 million was RM7.7 million or 1.7% lower than the immediate preceding quarter of RM443.6 million, mainly due to higher operating expenditure despite higher revenue

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.07*4 = 0.28, estimate PE on current price 4.57 = 15.7(DPS 0.175)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.249*1.1 = 0.2739, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.75/13.64 (DPS 0.175)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2414*1.1 = 0.2655, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.56/11.43 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2373*1.1 = 0.261, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.82/11.74 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2335*1.1 = 0.2569, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.79 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2196*1.1 = 0.2416, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/12.79 (DPS 0.16)

PLUS latest news (English)

PLUS latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2010-11-2420103N/AN/A-5.92%16.40%872645254559043589312969523496739683650.06990.193718744415128380845593559063311642702282805115892028837991359897200977308477650000005000000220000002010-09-3049.95%20.07%0.1814-1.171.173.760.622.95632.95622.67072.19440.684966.3%-29118
2010-08-19201024.493.910.0755.38%10.42%85974316729454435718610593195626186920.06390.123718618711126830575810459356541006340277243757306288276172909728209285455250000005000000199000002010-06-3051.59%28.08%0.1795-1.181.173.40.593.75513.75493.32582.15790.681272.7%-3794
2010-05-21201014.033.2-4.91%4.91%8132028132024174884174882991302991300.05980.0598185947901250846620545608632449062666787174302883047423839406409328945650000005000000167000002010-03-3151.34%28.41%0.175-1.211.212.760.684.07014.06993.79582.06210.672784.5%-27104
2010-02-23200943.513.230.15.17%19.45%8538353179022436402162357231500211863780.06300.23731836832012269843210006098477207525544778598397022400301627470643500288353050000005000000168500002009-12-3151.11%28.22%0.173114.20291.221.212.790.63.7173.71693.48312.01890.66873.9%-2394
2009-11-20200933.463.19-5.39%15.08%815177232518742201011873813115778715870.06230.17431786079412079247223875781547156736528602485585422398501281341425487266533750000005000000165000002009-09-3051.77%26.13%0.1746-1.151.152.870.543.17393.17373.0042.09740.676362.3%-17112
2009-08-20200923.393.250.0654.86%9.67%77224815100103944987653712813995600100.05630.112018063749122708342153457929151076796228550457832237993848246802463304045650000005000000164000002009-06-3051.08%28.64%0.1672-1.151.152.850.622.46522.46512.41062.12620.679362.6%-884
2009-05-28200913.383.12-4.66%4.66%7377627377623708733708732786112786110.05570.055717667736116918521952959758844183251483251269942234148270000396994263114250000005000000165000002009-03-3150.27%24.82%0.169-1.191.192.770.543.08273.08272.83371.96290.661866.9%-29107
2009-02-26200843.382.850.0955.20%18.95%7931772967958410028151570229598410793330.05920.21591702103111324079193445696952181355187436811150282410275939183175845223443050000005000000147500002008-12-3151.69%27.65%0.174413.66581.141.132.610.461.99961.99961.85371.99450.665341.7%-2298
2008-11-17200833.122.63-4.47%14.49%717153217478134107511056742417567833490.04840.15671652292511118563100245404362129378777824810025532418462515539487014193144850000005000000134500002008-09-3047.56%29.11%0.17-1.081.082.490.41.72371.72361.62132.06120.672932.1%-16113
2008-08-21200822.92.510.0654.85%9.87%73821014576283805227645992660475415930.05320.10831683011211342142974254879708881714864702452562416922401701156445257336750000005000000135000002008-06-3051.55%30.06%0.1572-1.11.12.450.531.63721.63721.59772.07040.673939.7%-9113
2008-05-27200813.122.49-4.90%4.90%7194187194183840773840772755462755460.05510.0551166810161105888892535622128390803250550998292417084140253240082265716650000005000000152000002008-03-3153.39%28.28%0.1485-1.121.122.710.541.36981.36971.31151.97030.66330.8%-18151
2008-02-26200743.282.620.087.34%23.33%6344732282010433360130799039269412478430.07850.249615893005105432979510534970814294911356477237457258206573014164443241762250000005000000163000002007-12-3168.30%9.40%0.143613.06251.071.073.050.51.38491.38481.34871.97430.663431.0%-11150
2007-11-27200733.323.08-5.77%17.24%55389216475372918828746302862318551490.05720.1710124656687505932101724959736101247257266510516692582749439807611862197088750000005000000164000002007-09-3052.70%1.96%0.1774-0.990.993.310.412.07442.07432.01091.51650.602149.3%-11121
2007-08-22200723.383.140.066.25%11.46%56965310936453168785827483104015689180.06210.1138125370457571696152249653496494373183127555652582715331125424440215827550000005000000153000002007-06-3055.63%2.06%0.1322-0.990.993.090.452.05292.05291.9791.52540.603972.3%-18107
2007-05-2920071N/AN/A-5.41%5.41%5239925239922658702658702585172585170.05170.0517130015278224770480477675734212959980172912584491282149299440288393150000005000000151000002007-03-3150.74%2.77%0.0836-0.960.953.180.582.23482.23482.17231.7220.6326150.8%-28266
2007-02-2720064N/AN/A0.0256.64%24.45%5632812090636298155110771230000511048730.06000.221012588363806987649545184871318345425076843786253502689326949483258450950000005000000140500002006-12-3152.93%-0.044712.71640.90.93.120.532.19022.19012.12481.78620.6411262.0%-53342

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtConcession assets (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Fixed deposits (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Land held for property development (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Toll compensation recoverable from the Government (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Deposits with licensed banks (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Toll compensation receivable from the Government (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Amount due to Government (L-0)Amount due to holding corporation (L-0)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred liabilities (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Long term payables (L-0)Other financial liabilities (L-0)Retirement benefits obligations (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Amount due to immediate holding company (L-1)Amount received from the Government for Additional Works (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Deferred income (L-1)Deferred liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Financial liabilities (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Payables and accruals (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20103126536422367209704115348092783116016155264238085384731701131766265593043418195150056038316756834025380963373415097312790455618831009287255661710499000477219535211730857278-74693368293761761276327055935
201021264359110016225213956337212783115983452048235287792142254232530837528071531711039758983222161116913380963324422777348893463218642769588281511662283360623719417198631227260-55799470283901154265883458104
201011238484391284923638-27831159511492332315026330268707-5702322074915210996463512173000-380963093430377455692192216689969688469171618072371478819311138831586938-557955-244021732323203020545
200941241751683165013729-27831159192491462486189193732124-4812285140611812993677688117879-38096688543789760018067791654284978763035156988640642551921680731946920-557917-239471270633545421000
200931240685580214893766-27058198864484112330160919619825-65522645512140199687800757970-380956885-1220336893591634573-86790841531210219768411911884-2597-557877-187801538023261022387
200921243208277095003817-271281822044830621822061247123093-59433017363122688593469017256-380966885-1242685830671609102-86045981495989953601720715186-2000475000554997-15139938203203221534
200911241459873274884118-271991663364918920428461330924955-55242606187108572465313154613-380966885-1233874751131569687-85055211439496656761620615174-1410-639979-113271504213057119529
200841238053171544833667-27269165925478551909498756825306-55752209124276338963391104269-38096688546622732243882391551694597965604140719107313382044512511876473-623132-3328011356802733119344
200831235419341295062941-27339165021480911772762823016998-757191445043889597047748029-380966885-1040352763481534993-78983231373910027616221227190---620000-3339661476423027710024
200821223015857395172886-27410165110469011651479727528439-3442544928276137157528--380966885-1043721848611516200-782911313523792844650136649258--400000620000-333022102578308009742
200811212105253555183195-27480115066610531520069830641840--261532649499176675645034-380966885-105430759921500911-7254373131678153339669457811380---620000-1078197168303291719253
2007411723486376675472824-27550115244454871392650819439487--2378135496332258363--380966885-51441114941486683657096256128221038833988044638415---592838-904347135847177079510
200738836172713985582255-27069954244265012836073019215981-2171954906447119933996---6885-46309-86099-633884112297464844934221367115907-----5500001254521464510172
200728798419701255532344-27323755994278211827863890118773-5472139502679472644598---6885-46010-82055-628629512016333953970042236911046-----55000071349105761522
200718765889722225172563-27577707374377910508964595616216--28677153735537068---6885--4615947340-67849331166745363417795102597132-----5500001650688185480
200648747231715085202831-2783220912433009583605751719112--2565397605025523528---6885-46507-30203-6734853114033300449802518284202---550000--800968637495

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther income/expensesAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associates
201038726458748825872319144135782234581268-1088
201028597431245722446691884693678420132563-314
201018132021186032248791879043639719328245--
200948538351231712562231791352062122433177119737-
200938151771102822292511748283084219930151--
200927722481129732119631772493076419302126--
20091737762920342174981645183276917642228--
20084793177113391232419165602125161884365321199-
200837171539928322885216391013536200573623205-
20082738210114374219656158848139172009510126994-
2008171941810861419858215683916207205938324466-
200746344734073618580811369596635125717014326-
20073553892571016599411126110816138765918305-
20072569653652616124511454313320116774921370-
20071523992737016326511517510633111241720809-
2006456328118501691081156431494014153-18838-

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables






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