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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

KLCI Stock - OSK / 5053 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,722,394,157 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.79-0.075)/0.1006 = 17.05 (High)
Target Price1.31+0.075 = 1.38 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.1006, DPS 0.075)
DecisionNOT BUY
Revenue is highest since FY08Q3, eps increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, no free cash flow but got little positive net cash flow, low liquidity ratio, high gearing ratio
First Support Price1.7
Second Support Price1.33
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity7.13%
Dividend Yield4.19%
Profit Margin22.51%
Tax Rate22.69%
Asset Turnover0.0737
Net Asset Value Per Share1.54
Net Tangible Asset per share1.31
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.35
Cash Per Share2.07
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5107
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6717
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3769
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio7.9398
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.872
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale278.1%
Days to sell the inventory2769
Days to collect the receivables540
Days to pay the payables3319

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group revenue for the nine months ended 30 September 2010 ("9M10") increased by 22% to RM710.25 million from RM582.28 million as compared to nine months ended 30 September 2009("9M09"). The Group profit before tax ("PBT") increased by 6% or RM7.77 million to RM139.58 million for 9M10 from RM131.81 million in 9M09. The profit after tax of the Group of RM103.12 million for 9M10 represented a growth of 12% Y-o-Y from RM92.42 million in 9M09

- OSK Investment Bank Berhad ("OSKIB"), the wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company is the main contributor accounting for 45% of the Group's PBT. The balance PBT of 55% is made up of profits from all other subsidiaries

- Total PBT contribution by foreign subsidiaries amounting 33% or RM45.54 million in 9M10 as compared to 27% or RM36.06 million in 9M09

- PBT from Singapore operations increased in 9M10 with its PBT expanding 17% to RM45.23 million from RM38.70 million in 9M09. The Indonesian operations contributed a PBT of RM7.87 million in 9M10 compared to a loss before tax of RM2.72 million in 9M09

- Investment Banking which consists mainly of Treasury, Corporate Advisory and Capital Market activities contributed PBT of RM72.26 million or 52% of the Group’s PBT for 9M10 as compared to RM43.99 million or 33% in 9M09

- Earnings from Loans and Financing contributed RM31.11 million or 22% of the Group's PBT as compared to RM25.12 million or 19% in 9M09

- Equities & Futures broking recorded PBT of RM26.93 million or 19% of the Group's PBT as compared to RM56.23 million or 43% in 9M09

- The Group PBT for the third quarter ended 30 September 2010 surged by 141% or RM33.59 million to RM57.49 million from RM23.90 million in second quarter of 2010

- Estimate next Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0479*2*1.05 = 0.1006, estimate PE on current price 1.79 = 17.05(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0479*2 = 0.0958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.43/12.08 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.56/7.4 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0449*4 = 0.1796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.21/6.38 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0525*4 = 0.21, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.38/6.9 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0570*4 = 0.228, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.83 (DPS 0.05)
- After 2009 Q1 loss result announced, no estimate
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0240*4 = 0.096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.32/7.86 (DPS 0.075)

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