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Monday, January 31, 2011

KLCI Stock - PETDAG / 5681 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)12,000,924,320 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(12.08-0.85)/0.852 = 13.18 (Moderate)
Target Price12.78+0.85 = 13.63 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.852, DPS 0.85)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue continuous increasing since FY09Q4, eps second consecutive increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, free and positive net cash flow increasing, low liquidity ratio, moderate gearing ratio, all accounting period are good, crude oil price increasing
First Support Price10.8
Second Support Price10.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price14.7 (2010-11-16)
TA Target Price12.96 (2011-01-06)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.42%
Dividend Yield4.97%
Profit Margin5.17%
Tax Rate27.06%
Asset Turnover2.7786
Net Asset Value Per Share4.66
Net Tangible Asset per share4.66
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.39
Cash Per Share1.45
Liquidity Current Ratio1.3004
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0286
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4795
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6796
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4026
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale4.1%
Days to sell the inventory14
Days to collect the receivables28
Days to pay the payables50

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue for the quarter and period ended 30 September 2010 increased by RM344.3 million and RM1020.9 million to RM5496.3 million and RM10952.8 million respectively, from the results of the corresponding period last year. The increases resulted from higher product average selling prices and higher sales volume

- Group pbt for the quarter and period ended 30 September 2010 increased by RM8.4 million and RM3.5 million to RM284.8 million and RM561.5 million respectively, from the corresponding period last year due to lower operating expenditures

- The Group revenue for the current quarter was RM5496.3 million, an increase of RM39.8 million from the results of the preceding quarter. The increase in revenue was due to higher sales volume

- Group pbt for the current quarter was RM284.3 million, an increase of RM7.1 million compared to the preceding quarter pbt of RM277.2 million mainly due to higher gross profit rising from higher sales volume and lower average product costs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.03 = 0.852, estimate PE on current price 12.08 = 13.18(DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7579*1.05 = 0.7958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.2/11.96 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.7579*0.95 = 0.72(5% drop due to lower gross profit compared to the preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.81/11.26 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.63/10.84 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)

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