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Monday, January 24, 2011

KLCI Stock - NAIM / 5073 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)892,500,000 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.57-0.1)/0.4657 = 7.45 (Moderate)
Target Price5.59+0.1 = 5.69 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.4657, DPS 0.1)
Revenue decreased and lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, got free cash flow but no positive net cash flow, liquidity ratio increasing at moderate level now, gearing ratio decreasing at moderate level now, inventory and receivables period increased again
First Support Price3.35
Second Support Price3.2
Risk RatingLOW

Research House
AMMB Target Price5.09 (2010-11-25)
MIDF Target Price4.65 (2010-11-25)
Kenanga Target Price4.5 (2010-12-02)
TA Target Price5.45 (2010-12-17)
OSK Target Price5.1 (2011-01-05)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.28%
Dividend Yield2.80%
Profit Margin35.54%
Tax Rate21.41%
Asset Turnover0.5441
Net Asset Value Per Share2.96
Net Tangible Asset per share2.92
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.18
Cash Per Share0.3
Liquidity Current Ratio2.3734
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4169
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2694
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4776
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3184
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale62.7%
Days to sell the inventory195
Days to collect the receivables187
Days to pay the payables122

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded higher revenue of RM420 million for the period under review, as compared to RM374 million recorded in the corresponding quarter in 2009. On a cumulative basis, Group profit before tax was RM100 million against RM85 million achieved in the same period in 2009. The increase was mainly contributed by higher sales of properties as well as substantial completion of certain construction projects

- In addition, its oil and gas associate, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Berhad, continues to contribute positively to the earnings of the Group for the period

- Group revenue decreased from RM156 million to RM141 million compared to the immediate preceding quarter. Group profit before tax increased substantially to RM50 million as compared to RM30 million in the immediate preceding quarter, mainly due to recognition of variation orders for and cost savings in certain projects

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2587*2*0.9 = 0.4657, estimate PE on current price 3.57 = 7.45(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1619*2*1.1 = 0.3562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.47/8.84 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2988 (10% drop from 0.332, due to profit decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.28/8.57 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0793*4 = 0.3172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.41/8.89 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0902*4 = 0.3608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.87/6.59 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0955*4 = 0.382, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.73 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4 = 0.2672, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.18/6.4 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1118*4 = 0.4472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.07/2.17 (DPS 0.13)

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