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Wednesday, January 19, 2011

KLCI Stock - MAHSING / 8583 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,821,135,757 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.19-0.065)/0.1571 = 13.53 (High)
Target Price2.04+0.065 = 2.11 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.1571, DPS 0.065)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 2
Revenue decreased but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, neither got free nor positive net cash flow, liquidity ratio decreasing at high level now, gearing ratio increasing at high level now, inventory period very high
First Support Price1.8
Second Support Price1.7

Research House
HLG Target Price2.61 (2010-11-24)
Kenanga Target Price2.48 (2010-11-24)
Maybank Target Price2.6 (2010-11-24)
TA Target Price2.48 (2010-11-24)
CIMB Target Price2.35 (2010-11-30)
MIDF Target Price2.13 (2010-11-30)
RHB Target Price2.5 (2011-01-13)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.57%
Dividend Yield2.97%
Profit Margin17.28%
Tax Rate34.91%
Asset Turnover0.598
Net Asset Value Per Share1.13
Net Tangible Asset per share1.13
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.64
Cash Per Share0.28
Liquidity Current Ratio3.3871
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2697
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4749
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.986
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4918
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale110.0%
Days to sell the inventory443
Days to collect the receivables130
Days to pay the payables171

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded strong revenue and profit after tax and minority interest (PATMI) of approximately RM811 million and RM87 million respectively for the current year to date. This represents 79% improvement for revenue and 25% improvement for PATMI over the corresponding period in previous year. The current quarter revenue and PATMI of approximately RM283m and RM30m represents 110% and 26% improvement respectively over same quarter last year

- The improved revenue and profit for the financial period is attributable to progressive recognition of development revenue and profit contribution from ites property development activities carried out in Kuala Lumpur, Klang Valley, Penang and Johor Bahru. On going projects which contributed to the Group's profit and revenue include Klang Valley residential projects such as Perdana Residence 2 in Selayang, Garden Residence in Cyberjaya, Hijauan Residence in Cheras, Kemuning Residence in Shah Alam, Aman Perdana in Meru - Shah Alam; commercial projects such as Southgate Commercial Centre in Sungai Besi, StarParc Point in Setapak and industrial projects such as i-Parc 1 in Bukit Jelutong and i-Parc 2 in Shah Alam. Also contributing are projects in Penang i.e. Residence @ Southbay and in Johor Bahru, i.e. Sierra Perdana, Sri Pulai Perdana 2 and Austin Perdana

- The Plastics division also recorded improved revenue and profit over the corresponding period in the previous year

- The Group has achieved close to RM1.2 billion sales for the 9 months ended 30 September 2010, and is confident of achieving its revised internal target of more then RM1.5 billion sales for the financial year. The Group's balance sheets remain healthy with manageable net gearing ratio at 0.22 as at 30 September 2010

- Excluding the 5 projects completed, the Group has a total of 28 projects in various property hotspots with good balance of product portfolio in all residential, commercial, retail and industrial segments. 18 of these are on-going projects and 10 are new projects in the planning stage

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4*1.1 = 0.1571, estimate PE on current price 2.19 = 13.53(DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0355*4*1.1 = 0.1562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/10.47 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034*4*1.1 = 0.1496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.13/9.99 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.6/10.53 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)

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