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Saturday, January 22, 2011

KLCI Stock - LEADER / 4529 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)392,812,786 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.9-0.03)/0.1224 = 7.11 (Moderate)
Target Price0.98+0.03 = 1.01 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.1224, DPS 0.03)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps second consecutive quarter increasing and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, neither got free nor positive net cash flow, liquidity ratio decreasing at low level now, gearing ratio increasing at high level now, all accounting period as usual
First Support Price0.84
Second Support Price0.82
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
OSK Target Price1.2 (2010-11-29)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.00%
Dividend Yield1.67%
Profit Margin2.99%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover1.7608
Net Asset Value Per Share1.29
Net Tangible Asset per share1.29
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.66
Cash Per Share0.31
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4798
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.99
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2456
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2429
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.514
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale11.0%
Days to sell the inventory43
Days to collect the receivables62
Days to pay the payables46

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group registered a revenue of RM 645.02 million for the current reporting quarter ended 30 September 2010, an increase of 26.53% as compared to RM509.78 million for the corresponding quarter ended 30 September 2009. The Cable and Wire division recorded a higher revenue mainly due to increased in sales quantity and surge in metal prices in the current reporting quarter.

- Despite the higher revenue, the Group recorded a lower profit before taxation of RM19.32 million in the current reporting quarter as compared to RM20.17 million for the corresponding quarter ended 30 September 2009 due mainly to lower share of profit from the associated companies in the current quarter

- The Group’s profit before taxation for the current reporting quarter ended 30 September 2010 was 17.58% lower at RM19.32 million as compared to RM23.44 million for the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.034*4*0.9 = 0.1224, estimate PE on current price 0.9 = 7.11(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0575*2 = 0.115, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.87/6.78 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1041, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.5/7.4 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0261*4 = 0.1044, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.77/7.71 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0363*4 = 0.1452, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.44/4.92 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.032*4 = 0.128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.29/5.35 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/5.2 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0289*4 = 0.1156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.97/3.16 (DPS 0.03)

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