PROTON / 5304 - 2010 Q3

My TP: 5.8+0.05=5.85 (PE 10, EPS 0.5804, DPS 0.05)
OSK TP: 5.9
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue growth, good cash flow, low debt

My study based on 2010 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.11% to 1.67% and also higher than last year 3.06%
- Revenue compare to last Q dropped 4.3% to 2013533 and profit also dropped 2.91% to 79678, mainly due to decline in domestic sales volume and higher promotional costs required to drive sales; As compare to last year revenue growth 30.98% and profit growth 206.7%, mainly due to domestic sales volume growth and better profit margins on he strength of sales of the Exora, Persona and Saga
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 9.7% to 4762078, assets decreased 4.74% to 6740442 but liabilities increased 9.81% to 1978364; As compare to last year equity decreased 11.62%, assets decreased 7.71% but liabilities increased 3.26%
- Got FCF 587940, NCF 450802
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.06% to 3.96% and also higher than last year 8.82%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0738 to 0.4154 and compare to last year also increased 0.0598
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate PE on current price 3.98 = 6.77 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-11-24 to 2010-02-19 after 2010 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-21 was 4.33 and lowest price on 2009-11-24 was 3.71. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-08-19 to 2009-11-23 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-23 was 4.48 and lowest price on 2009-08-19 was 2.93. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-05-30 to 2009-08-18 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 3.06 and lowest price on 2009-06-22 was 2.61.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-31 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-21 was 3.12 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 1.5.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.05 (proposed 5 sen on Q2)