NAIM / 5073 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 4.12
My TP: 2.86 + 0.08 = 2.94 (EPS 0.3172, PE 9, DPS 0.08)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue, profit dropped

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.48% to 2.81% and also lower than last year 1.62%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 5.85% to 152915 but profit dropped 12.11% to 18805; As compare to last year revenue growth 6.84% but profit dropped 30.58%
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.71% to 668336, assets increased 7.61% to 1053560 and liabilities also increased 17.31% to 385224; As compare to last year equity increased 9.23%, assets increased 10.21% and liabilities also increased 11.97%
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 5.94% to 21985 and compare to last year also decreased 9.26%
- FCF -23013, NCF 35287
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 2.51% to 12.3% and also lower than last year 6.63%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0717 to 0.5764 and compare to last year also increased 0.0141
- 5 sen dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0793*4 = 0.3172, estimate PE on current price 3.3 = 10.15(DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-11-18 to 2010-02-24 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-14 was 3.64 and lowest price on 2009-12-11 was 2.45. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0902*4 = 0.3608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.87/6.59 (DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-17 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-20 was 3.15 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 2.65. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0955*4 = 0.382, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.73 (DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-05-27 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 2.85 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 1.84. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0668*4 = 0.2672, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.18/6.4 (DPS 0.13)
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-26 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-06 was 1.95 and lowest price on 2009-03-19 was 1.1. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1118*4 = 0.4472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.07/2.17 (DPS 0.13)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.08 (declared 5 sen on Q4 and declared 3 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.13 (declared 5 sen on Q4 and 8 sen on Q2), 2007 = 0.15 (declared 8% on Q3 and 7% on Q1)