MALTON / 6181 - 2010 Q2

S&P Research TP: 0.5 (03 Dec 09)
My TP: 0.445
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Market unstable

My opinion based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.01% to 1.5%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 45.88% to 116288 and profit also growth 1.05% to 6472, mainly attributed to higher billings from both property development and construction divisions; As compare to last year, revenue dropped 12.98% but profit growth 175.76%, revenue declined due to completion of sizable external project in mid 2009 and improved profit was attributed to good take-up rates of the Group’s on-going projects such as Amaya Saujana and achievement of nearly 100% sale from Pearl Villas and Bayu Villas
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.53%, assets decreased 3.8% to 750880 and liabilities also decreased 10.13% to 320361; As compare to last year, equity increased 1.9%, assets decreased 14.83% and liabilities also decreased 30.22%
- Minority interest compare to last Q are same but compare to last year decreased 100%
- Got FCF 45082, NCF 34491
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 2.46% to 5.57% but higher than last year 3.81%
- DE compare to last quarter decreased 0.0965 to 0.7441 and also lower than last year 0.3426
- No dividend recommended
- My highest estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0186*4 = 0.0744, estimate PE on current price 0.36 = 4.84
- From date 2009-11-26 to 2010-02-22 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-16 was 0.445 and lowest price on 2010-02-18 was 0.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0184*4 = 0.0736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.05/4.76
- From date 2009-08-29 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-14 was 0.39 and lowest price on 2009-11-03 was 0.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.005*4 = 0.02, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.5/17.5
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-28 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-13 was 0.43 and lowest price on 2009-07-13 was 0.3. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.003*4 = 0.012, estimate highest/lowest PE = 35.83/25
- From date 2009-02-20 to 2009-05-27 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-14 was 0.39 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 0.26. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0067*4 = 0.0268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.55/9.7
- Divident in sen 2007 = 0.01 (proposed 1% after 2007 Q4)