GENM / 4715 - 2009 Q4

My TP: 2.9 (Last Q highest price)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price uptrend appear)
Reason: Unstable market

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.14% to 3.53% but higher than last year 8.19%
- Revenue compare to last Q dropped 4.52% to 1275555 and profit also dropped 0.32% to 358320, mainly due to weaker luck factor in the premium players business and mitigated by impairment loss of RM48.6 million arising from long term investment; As compare to last year revenue dropped 4.03% and profit also growth 192.39%, mainly due to impairment loss of RM781.5 million in the last year, weaker luck factor in the premium players business and lower interest income this quarter
- Equity compare to last Q increased 3.45% to 10144179, assets increased 2.46% to 11346032 but liabilities decreased 5.15% to 1201853; As compare to last year equity increased 21.85%, assets increased 20.41% and liabilities also increased 9.47%
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 1.48% to 6920 and also lower than last year 5.7%
- Got FCF 1094756, NCF 721203
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 1.18% to 28.09% and also higher than last year 57.27%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0107 to 0.1185 and also lower than last year 0.0134
- 4.3 sen dividend recommended
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0628*4 = 0.2512, estimate PE on current price 2.72 = 10.54(DPS 0.073)
- From date 2009-11-26 to 2010-02-25 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-05 was 2.95 and lowest price on 2010-02-19 was 2.67. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0629*4 = 0.2516, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.45/10.33 (DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-08 was 2.92 and lowest price on 2009-10-05 was 2.71. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.35/11.44 (DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-28 was 3 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 2.53. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0481*4 = 0.1924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/12.79 (DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-27 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-25 was 2.79 and lowest price on 2009-03-20 was 1.9.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.073 (recommended 4.3 sen on Q4 and declared 3 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.07 (declared 4 sen on Q4 and 3 sen on Q2), 2007 = 0.0648 (declared 3.6 sen on Q4 and 2.88 sen on Q2), 2006 = 0.15 (declared 3 sen on Q4 and 12 sen on Q2)