MAHSING / 8583 - 2009 Q4

Maybank TP: 2.56
CIMB TP: 2.34
My TP: 2
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Market unstable

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.28% to 2.94% but higher than last year 0.49%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 84.15% to 248871 and profit also growth 6.66% to 25090, mainly due to better performance of the Group's property division; As compare to last year, revenue growth 64.1% and profit also growth 46.93%, mainly due to project contribution from the residential projects and plastics division
- Equity compare to last Q increased 16.9% to 853468, assets increased 28.15% to 1546548 and liabilities also increased 45.4% to 693080; As compare to last year, equity increased 22.52%, assets increased 28.93% and liabilities also increased 37.82%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 18% to 7774 and also higher than last year 22.72%
- FCF 168199, NCF 196243
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 7.33% to 10.08% and also lower than last year 1.18%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.1592 to 0.8121 and also higher than last year 0.0902
- 13% odividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate PE on current price 1.83(DPS 0.08) = 11.79
- From date 2009-10-29 to 2010-02-22 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-15 was 1.98 and lowest price on 2009-11-30 was 1.68. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-08-20 to 2009-10-28 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-04 was 2.08 and lowest price on 2009-10-28 was 1.78. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-19 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-14 was 2.05 and lowest price on 2009-05-29 was 1.72. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-02-25 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 1.85 and lowest price on 2009-02-26 was 1.52. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.08 (proposed 16% on Q4), 2008 = 0.08 (proposed 16% on Q4), 2007 = 0.08 (proposed 16% on Q4)