MUHIBAH / 5703 - 2009 Q4

S&P Research TP: 1.3 (01 Dec 09)
My TP: 1.17 (based on last quarter higher price)
My decision: BUY (if market uptrend appear)
Reason: Profit better than last quarter, got chance to rise to above 1.1

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- Revenue compare to last Q dropped 0.89% to 605541 but profit growth 29.63% to -6332; As compare to last year revenue dropped 24.69% but profit growth 82.19%, attributed to higher turnover from the Infrastructure Construction, Cranes and Shipyard Division
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 1.3% to 552785, assets decreased 3.18% to 2477374 and liabilities also decreased 3.71% to 1924589; As compare to last year equity increased 4.49%, assets decreased 5.08% and liabilities also decreased 7.51%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 2.71% to 101938 and compare to last year also increased 16.33%
- FCF 269499, NCF -21019
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0872 to 3.4816 and compare to last year also decreased 0.4517
- 5% dividend recommended
- From date 2009-12-01 to 2010-02-25 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-15 was 1.17 and lowest price on 2010-02-22 was 0.925.
- From date 2009-08-28 to 2009-11-30 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-07 was 1.37 and lowest price on 2009-11-26 was 1.03. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0362*4 = 0.1448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.29/6.94 (DPS 0.025)
- From date 2009-05-30 to 2009-08-27 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-12 was 1.63 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 1.25.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-29 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 1.3 and lowest price on 2009-03-12 was 0.655. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.17/4.04 (DPS 0.025)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.025 (recommended 5% on Q4), 2008 = 0.025 (recommended 5% on Q4), 2007 = 0.045 (recommended 9% on Q4)