MAXIS / 6012 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 5.80
My TP: 5.25+0.24 = 5.49 (PE 16, EPS 0.328, DPS 0.24)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue, market unstable

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 49.05% to 5.62%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 2.55% to 2211000 but profit dropped 18.21% to 503000, mainly due to a 5% increase in the total mobile subscriptions and wireless broadband decreased by RM15 or 15% mainly due to launch of free 2-month subscription promotion packages and one time costs of approximately RM120 million relating to (i) the discount for shares issued to retail investors in relation to IPO of RM53 million, (ii) IPO listing expenses of RM24 million and (iii) higher finance costs of RM43 million; As compare to last year, revenue growth 16.61% and profit also growth largely, mainly due to higher mobile subscription base and higher tax charge for 2008
- Equity compare to last Q increased 685.11% to 8945000, assets increased 117.18% to 8945000 and liabilities also increased 25.22% to 8853000; As compare to last year, equity increased 486.94%, assets increased 466.82% and liabilities also increased 447.83%
- Got FCF 1848000, NCF -5000
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 5.78% to 22.75% but higher than last year 22.01%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 5.2947 to 0.9897 and also lower than last year 0.0707
- 6 sen dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.082*4 = 0.328, estimate PE on current price 5.52 = 16.1(DPS 0.24)

- From date 2009-12-01 to 2010-02-25 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2010-02-25 was 5.52 and lowest price on 2010-02-08 was 5.33. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.082*4 = 0.328, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.1/15.52 (DPS 0.24)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.12(declared 6 sen on Q4 and declared 6 sen on Q3)